2016 Postmortem

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts) Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:19 PM Feb 2016

No Spinning a Nevada Loss for Clinton

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-21519326

Either way, if Clinton loses today, she’ll have to explain why she’s the favorite nationally despite having won only one out of the first three states (and having won that one state, Iowa, only barely). In New Hampshire, Clinton had some obvious excuses: The state’s Democratic electorate is really white and really liberal and right next to Vermont.

In the event of a Nevada loss, Clinton’s excuses would be much less persuasive. Maybe she’s lost a lot of support among Hispanics, or among union voters, for instance. That might explain why she lost the state. But it wouldn’t excuse it. There are lots of union workers and Hispanic Democrats in other states, and having lost their support would be an enormous problem for Clinton.

16 replies

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No Spinning a Nevada Loss for Clinton (Original Post) geek tragedy Feb 2016 OP

The corollary, of course... OilemFirchen Feb 2016 #1

That is not a valid corollary. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #3

Of course it is. OilemFirchen Feb 2016 #5

Sanders does not need to win every single state. As long as he shows continued momentum, he's good. reformist2 Feb 2016 #10

Sure it is. Sanders can lose Nevada and still have a path to a win. It's not a cake walk, but it's DisgustipatedinCA Feb 2016 #13

He doesn't need to win here, he just needs to keep his name and message geek tragedy Feb 2016 #4

Yes he does. OilemFirchen Feb 2016 #6

my fellow Bernie supporters, if they were easily deterred by setbacks geek tragedy Feb 2016 #9

Except that Bernie's national trendline is up, and Hillary's is down. The trend is Bernie's friend. reformist2 Feb 2016 #12

I thought Hillary was white too. floriduck Feb 2016 #2

That's why Brock has floated "Repubs are going to vote for Bernie." It's their built-in excuse. in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #7

Let him say that. My reply: he has crossover appeal without giving an inch on his convictions. DisgustipatedinCA Feb 2016 #14

NH is not like VT. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #8

from his article bigtree Feb 2016 #11

You may or may not be right, but there's not a thing you or I can do about it now. They're voting. DisgustipatedinCA Feb 2016 #15

well then bigtree Feb 2016 #16

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)

1. The corollary, of course...

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:27 PM

Feb 2016

is that if Sanders loses, he has no path to the nomination. Much more risk on his part.

FTR, I expect a two-point advantage to one or the other. Not a game-changer.

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)

3. That is not a valid corollary.

Reply to OilemFirchen (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:35 PM

Feb 2016

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)

5. Of course it is.

Reply to JonLeibowitz (Reply #3)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:37 PM

Feb 2016

Yours is not a valid rebuttal.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)

10. Sanders does not need to win every single state. As long as he shows continued momentum, he's good.

Reply to OilemFirchen (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:58 PM

Feb 2016

People forget how much the goalposts have already been moved on Nevada. Another tie tonight would be more good news for Bernie.

I will say that Bernie does need to win more than a few states on Super Tuesday, though.

DisgustipatedinCA

(12,530 posts)

13. Sure it is. Sanders can lose Nevada and still have a path to a win. It's not a cake walk, but it's

Reply to OilemFirchen (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:02 PM

Feb 2016

doable.

I'm not sure how many elections you've been through, but everything is still malleable at this point.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

4. He doesn't need to win here, he just needs to keep his name and message

Reply to OilemFirchen (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:36 PM

Feb 2016

out there and gaining visibility.

He, unlike Clinton, has enough cash to get through the rest of the campaign.

the number of delegates here is miniscule.

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)

6. Yes he does.

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:41 PM

Feb 2016

The same rationale applies. If he loses two of the first three contests he'll have to explain why his massive grassroots appeal failed to deliver.

Goose and gander.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

9. my fellow Bernie supporters, if they were easily deterred by setbacks

Reply to OilemFirchen (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:53 PM

Feb 2016

and the odds, wouldn't have invested in Bernie's campaign.

Money is a very real metric and a very real concern, and Clinton is facing trouble just like she did in 2008.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)

12. Except that Bernie's national trendline is up, and Hillary's is down. The trend is Bernie's friend.

Reply to OilemFirchen (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:01 PM

Feb 2016

It's not Hillary's.

floriduck

(2,262 posts)

2. I thought Hillary was white too.

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:33 PM

Feb 2016

NH's main population migrated from MA to the southeastern part of the state. So the "next door neighbor" thing is not relevant either. So much for excuses.

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)

7. That's why Brock has floated "Repubs are going to vote for Bernie." It's their built-in excuse.

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:46 PM

Feb 2016

When she loses.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

DisgustipatedinCA

(12,530 posts)

14. Let him say that. My reply: he has crossover appeal without giving an inch on his convictions.

Reply to in_cog_ni_to (Reply #7)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:03 PM

Feb 2016

Some Republicans still like him anyway.

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)

8. NH is not like VT.

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:49 PM

Feb 2016

Silly comparison. Yea, they're both predominately white...but that's it. NH is primarily libertarian-leaning. VT is liberal-leaning.

bigtree

(86,005 posts)

11. from his article

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:00 PM

Feb 2016

"Since polls usually aren’t very accurate in Nevada, a Clinton win in the high single digits or even the low double digits wouldn’t be a huge surprise."

DisgustipatedinCA

(12,530 posts)

15. You may or may not be right, but there's not a thing you or I can do about it now. They're voting.

Reply to bigtree (Reply #11)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:04 PM

Feb 2016

bigtree

(86,005 posts)

16. well then

Reply to DisgustipatedinCA (Reply #15)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:16 PM

Feb 2016

...voting's over

Let the Sanders spin begin.

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