2016 Postmortem

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts) Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:14 PM Feb 2016

Please remember, the first precinct results favored Clinton in Iowa...

This is probably just like Iowa. Small, more rural precincts will tend to favor HRC. And those results will most likely be released first, because those caucuses tend to be smaller.

So, don't be surprised if her numbers are better in the beginning.

And I will say--if the first results are rural--and it's a tie or she is not doing well--that bodes well for Bernie. If she doesn't get those more conservative/rural areas in NV (which she said were her firewall in Iowa) that this may be a signal of problems for her.

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Please remember, the first precinct results favored Clinton in Iowa... (Original Post) CoffeeCat Feb 2016 OP

It's likely the reverse in Nevada KingFlorez Feb 2016 #1

Really...that's interesting CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #4

Exactly. Rural NV is much more conservative than Vegas. stopbush Feb 2016 #5

Nevada ought to follow a more urban pattern 6chars Feb 2016 #2

i think Bernie will do better in rural NV than Hillary. Punkingal Feb 2016 #3

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)

1. It's likely the reverse in Nevada

Reply to CoffeeCat (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:16 PM

Feb 2016

In 2008, Clinton did poorly in the cow counties and better in Clark County where most of the people are.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

4. Really...that's interesting

Reply to KingFlorez (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:22 PM

Feb 2016

In 2008, she did very well in rural, less populous counties in Iowa. Interesting to note that in 2016, Bernie did very well in rural counties. He won many counties and precincts that Hillary had won before. Bernie even won many that Edwards had won--very rural, red counties. That was a surprise.

Do you believe that HRC did better in Clark County because of the large Hispanic vote? I don't think she has their support in NV in 2016, like she did in 2008.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)

5. Exactly. Rural NV is much more conservative than Vegas.

Reply to KingFlorez (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:26 PM

Feb 2016

They usually buck the union-dominated voting trend you see in Vegas. If history is any guide, BS should do well outside of Vegas.

6chars

(3,967 posts)

2. Nevada ought to follow a more urban pattern

Reply to CoffeeCat (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:18 PM

Feb 2016

State population about 3 million, 2 million of whom are in Las Vegas metropolitan area, 500,000 in Reno metropolitan area. That leaves 500,000 country folk.

Punkingal

(9,522 posts)

3. i think Bernie will do better in rural NV than Hillary.

Reply to CoffeeCat (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 04:19 PM

Feb 2016

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