Nevada Dems have an older demographic that is about 2 - 1 for Hillary - and there are more of them

But the heavy turnout that is being reported favors Bernie. It means the youth is coming out.

Word is some people are walking away from long lines.

I was flipping between them.

is promising.

What strongly counters that is the combination of the large youth vote and the 12 pt lead with those making 50 or less (a much larger group than any other).

18-24 8.3%
25-34 14.6%
35-44 14.4%
45-54 17.2%
55-64 19.1%
__65+ 26.3%

Hillary is heavily supported by the 65+ - kind of like Bernie is with the young ones - not quite as extreme an there is three times as many of them.

There is same day registration which is when a bunch of the kids sign up. And heavy turnout so everyone feels that's good for Bernie.

This doesn't make sense to me. Bernie is much stronger on issues affecting Medicare, and Social Security, on strengthening them and even increasing them.

I am 66 and I think a lot of DU members are up here too...and we want the Bern, so I don't understand states where the elderly are not backing Sanders.

Maybe many of them aren't paying attention. I admit our population here is not the norm. We are politically savvy, internet users seeking information, and we are paying attention and a lot of people just settle for what they hear on Fox news or other news sources.

I think you've got it in that last paragraph. I know folks of our age group who have strong notions based on bad or misleading info.

- and I look at the demographics of a lot of them

This is from the entrance/exit polling (which are not always precise)
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/nevada/exit/

65 or over (28%) 74% Clinton Sanders 24%

28% of the electorate at 65+ is a high number but it's been like that in prior years in Nevada

Sanders also won
whites 49-47(59%) and
Hispanics 53-45 (19%)
but lost the blacks (13%) 73-22

Pull Clark county and Sanders wins the state by 5pts.

Keys to Clinton's win:
- won the biggest county, Clark, by a good margin
- big majority of black vote
- people 65+

The polling for 65+ and the blacks has been consistent in the polls I've seen.

saying that the election board is overwhelmed by the new registrations. Something like they've never seen before. There is two other issues on the ballot but its stuff that normally doesn't bring out the masses so my gut tells me its for Sanders and or tRump. No one around here likes Hill so I doubt she plays any part in this. I wish she'd just go away is about as good as you'll get when you mention her name

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/government/voter-registrations-surge-in-tulsa-county-ahead-of-elections/article_6ffde9fe-be6e-5ba0-b68e-c2ae18f9fddd.html

i expect MSNBC wants Bernie's voters to stay at home

Everyone is in doing their thing now. They already were when the entrance poll results were announced.

Go Bernie.

Any Republican who stands for Sanders, then appears at the GOP caucus on Tuesday, HAS to be removed from the counts for both parties.

The cluster fuck that was Iowa. Sounds like caucuses are just straight asking for voter fraud

The GOP has attacked the Clinton's for well over 20 years and have been unsuccessful... Yes, I agree with your assessment.

Had Bernie ahead 49 to 47

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511284469

who call people in the phone book. No demographic breakdown or weighting. It's not really a poll, though they got nicely lucky in NH.

Wow

Her people just aren't that motivated to turn out

Please don't count the chicken, people! It's going to be a looooong day.

Expectations is everything.

Hope for the best, and say you expect the worst in all your presidential primary campaign endeavors. This is will carry you far.

Bernie only beat Hillary by 3 points with those making 50k or less.

Don't know if Iowa exit poll numbers give any insight into NV, but here they are:

http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/iowa/exit/

A Bernie win in Nevada after the crushing defeat in New Hampshire will signal that he is absolutely electable, so it isn't necessary to prop-up the "inevitable Clinton". You can actually vote for the person you want to vote for, not just some focus group tested pack of "principles" that change daily and with the direction of the wind.

If you're in a union and the union leaders are right there in the same room telling you to vote for Person A, wouldn't it be pretty risky to openly vote for Person B?

Caucuses are ridiculous. I wish everybody in every state would get to do it like we do in Oregon, and vote by mail from the comfort of their own homes--no time off work, no time in long lines, and privacy.

Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 6 minutes ago
Report from field: Lots of new registrants, reports of GOPers switching to vote. "Overheard kids saying parents switch..to vote for Bernie."

Sorry but, he just lost Nevada... Super Tuesday is his last hope...

OP says it is a lock.

balloons .

balloons !!! The 1% eked one out, more than a 6th of a percent .

On edit, just to seal my 1% credentials:

and if this is the case, it will be interesting

both cnn and MSNBC are reporting bernie is winning the hispanic vote according to enterence polls! There goes just white guys voting for bernie.

old roads are rapidly aging.Get out of the new oneIf you can't lend a hand.O, the times they are a'changing.

~Bob Dylan

when I participated in Occupy Los Angeles in 2010. I beheld the future and it gave me great hope. Occupy made Sanders possible, imo.

If Sanders can keep it within single digits, it's O.K. If it's within a few percent, great. If he wins, awesome!

and even Clinton supporters are realizing that her campaign is a bust, just like it was in 2008.

She is fantastic at being a dirty fighter behind the scenes, but the scrutiny under which she would be if by some chance she won the nomination and the GE would crush her and the Democratic party.

She is not the genuine article.

Please, someone inform Tweety that Bernie’s tax on wall street speculation is not a big tax on Grandpa because Grandpa does not usually day trade in his 401K

You were saying?

About 10% each, if I remember. Seems like Asians were slightly favoring Sanders. If so, any AA support he receives would be the margin of victory. But knows. Well all of us in a couple of hours.

VERY odd they'd call it with half the precincts reporting.

I'm confused as to why they are calling it at 5:00 EST?
Isn't the 2-3 PM Nevada time?

The better candidate...Nevada was bernies last chance...it's all downhill from here for Clinton...

While a Democrat candidate has lost the GE with a positive trustworthiness and likeability number, no Democrat has ever won the GE with these numbers being negative.

highly doubtful that the entrance poll re: hispanics is correct.

Woot! Woot!

Than the first few dozen.

Red state my ass.

Nevada has gone blue the last two presidential elections.

Bill Clinton won it twice. Besides it's a democratic caucus. Democrats vote. I guess you only want lily white states to have a say rather than states that have a lot of minorities? I guess that will be your argument when Bernie loses South Carolina, too?

Even more so than exit polls. Iowa entrance polls initially had Hillary winning by a significant margin and she barely won.