2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:44 PM Oct 2012

According To Gallup The President Has Two Challenges

He needs to maintain his current five point lead among registered voters and close the five point gap between registered and likely voters. That five point gap between registered and likely voters is large by historical standards. It's usually around two percent.

A decent debate performance will maintain the lead and close the enthusiasm gap which explains the gap between Obama and Romney among likely voters. As of now more of the people who say they will vote for Romney will vote.

As an aside Gallup uses one of the narrowest screens in the business.

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According To Gallup The President Has Two Challenges (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP

Good analysis. mzmolly Oct 2012 #1

Ironically. DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #2

and quit agreeing with republicans on issues nt msongs Oct 2012 #3

mzmolly

(50,993 posts)

1. Good analysis.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:47 PM

Oct 2012

I'm very glad that Obama is showing his pre-debate numbers in the RV column of late.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

2. Ironically.

Reply to mzmolly (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:54 PM

Oct 2012

A lot of the days we were happy that the president was winning in the Gallup Poll he was probably losing. If Gallup shows a five point gap between likely and registered voters and the president was winning by three or four among registered voters he was probably losing by one or two among their model's likely voters.

I look at a lot of polls and they suggest the African American participation and Latino share of the electorate will be down from 2008. That is disappointing.

I will add if Obama goes into the election leading by at least three percent or so among registered voters I don't see him losing the election.

msongs

(67,413 posts)

3. and quit agreeing with republicans on issues nt

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:56 PM

Oct 2012

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