2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs one "good" debate performance
enough to turn around an heretofore losing campaign and win an election? Is one "bad" debate performance by an incumbent enough to turn around an heretofore winning campaign and lose an election? IMHO anybody willing to overlook all of the gaffes, lies, vagueness, and embrace of failed Bushian policies of Romney's campaign before last Wednesday and pull the lever for Romney/Ryan on 11/06/12 just because of one "strong" but wildly dishonest Presidential debate instead of voting to retain our more rational, honest, sober, thoughtful, and competent POTUS, is, to put it bluntly, an idiot!
Keafirehouse88
(25 posts)I really don't think so; But if I'm wrong and Romney wins, then education reform has to officially be america biggest priority.
treestar
(82,383 posts)and what about the unemployment rate? It's below 8 for once. So that was supposed to help the President, not Rmoney.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)They are STILL hyping the crap out of it a week later, and in addition, have trotted out all the crazy GOPers like Guiliani and Trump to bash Obama as being a "follower" (weak on foreign policy) and saying the unemployment rate is a lie.
It's a constant, unending drone of bullshit.
Past elections have never hinged on one debate performance.
ladjf
(17,320 posts). The media basically dismissed him from the campaign by using one altered video of Dean talking loudly. They seem to be doing the same thing now. They (the media) have plugged the plug on the campaign. Whether they will succeed in kicking Obama out remains to be seen.
I have little to no confidence in American's ability to fight off heavy media propaganda.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)My hope is that Obama is a 'known' - he's been president for 4 years so the media propoganda may not be as effective. Dean was an unknown at the time. It's nothing short of character assassination.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,412 posts)and most people like him and his approval ratings have now broken the 50% threshold. 4 years of anti-Obama Fox News Tea Party propaganda have not succeeded in destroying him. I'm trying not to worry too much. Last Wednesday's debate- according to the meme promoted by the MSM- was a disaster for President Obama and that Romney made a HUGH comeback but I don't think that Romney is "growing" on most people- and I can't imagine that he ever will.
ladjf
(17,320 posts)obvious advantages of having a Dem in the White House but, because it would bolster my
confidence in the American People's ability to think logically.
andym
(5,443 posts)after he had been painted as a dangerous simpleton by Carter's campaign, which Reagan richly supported by a many gaffes throughout the campaign.
And the most ironic thing is that many people thought that Carter won the debate-- me included. Listen to the commentary right afterwards and it seems that many thought it at worst a draw for Carter.
Watch for yourself:
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)It's why the heat has to be turned up.
With Carter, the economy was so bad that any acceptable candidate could beat him, but Democrats did an effective job of making sure that people didn't view Reagan as acceptable. We didn't "want his finger on the button" (etc). All Reagan had to do was appear credible/reasonable and the race was over. It's where the "Reagan Democrats" came from. They didn't like Carter, but they were too scared of Reagan... until that debate.
IMO, the key to this final month has little to do with pumping up the President. It's making sure that Democrats who are disillusioned with the President don't get anywhere close to thinking that "I can live with Romney".
andym
(5,443 posts)And this time, the economy has undergone a much more serious hit than in the late 70's. The degree of recovery that has been achieved is actually remarkable. President Obama needs to take more credit for fixing things and promising that things will be better still.
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)The economy was still getting worse back then. We can debate whether we're recovering fast enough or whether the President responded in the best way to this decline, but things are clearly getting better.
Godless in Seattle
(120 posts)That is all.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,412 posts)I've always believed that we would probably end up with an outcome somewhere between 2004 and 2008 for President Obama. Playing around with 270towin.com, as long as President Obama wins the midwest (i.e. Ohio, Wisconsin) and New Mexico (which is solidly in his camp), he could lose every other "battleground state" (Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada etc.) and still win 271-263. IMHO he will do a little better than that but this just illustrates what a difficult path Romney has to 270 votes.
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)It sure seemed to sink Jimmy Carter.
But there are three more debates and a month of campaigning still to come.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,412 posts)and how close in proximity to the election were they? I think we'll ultimately be o.k. given how strong President Obama's campaign had been coming into the debate- as long as the other debates are better (which they probably will be IMHO)
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)And it was just before the election (Oct 28th). The polls had closed somewhat, but Gallup still had Carter leading (by 3 IIRC). Then it was all down hill from there.
Oh... I suppose there were two if you want to be technical. But Carter didn't participate in the first one (in mid Sept).
I think we'll ultimately be o.k. given how strong President Obama's campaign had been coming into the debate- as long as the other debates are better (which they probably will be IMHO)
I agree. At least... I sure hope so.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)Most polls had Reagan leading.
http://www.thenation.com/blog/170230/another-great-gop-myth-no-polls-did-not-show-carter-beating-reagan-1980