If Obama can maintain his five point lead among registered voters he will win the election no matter what today's Gallup LV model shows. That gap will narrow as it always does in reasonably close races.

And that Obama voters have their registration updated or become newly registered voters.

The polls are nerve wracking forsure, but let's wait until this weekend to see where they're at before getting too upset. If Romney is ahead then we can be concerned.

I suspect if O holds his RV lead in Gallup he will be tied or leading by a percent as early as tomorrow.

Needed that.

which reminds me, i need to stock up on popcorn!

There's a reason LV's are used as we get closer to election. Enthusiasm matters as election day nears.

I'll get excited when I see this translate to LV models.

!) The closer to the election the more rv numbers and lv numbers converge. *
2) The president is currently leading 49-46 among RVs and trailing 49-47 among LVS. If he increases his RV lead to 50-45 which is he currently polling he ties among LVs.
3) If on 11/5 Obama is leading 50-45 among RVs and tied 49-49 among LVS I will bet the ranch Obama wins on the belief he has a huge cushion among the larger , potential electorate.






*http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108342/romneys-gain-among-likely-voters-not-unusual

Headlines like this are what got us into trouble last week.

No more overconfident predictions of victory.

Take nothing for granted and wait until Obama goes back up in the polls before relaxing.

Everyone needs to get off their backside and get out there and get to work!