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MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:37 PM Feb 2016

Sanders will need some serious upsets on March 1.

He will definitely win in Massachusetts and Vermont. Eleven states and over 800 delegates are up for grabs. If he can win at least three other states, he can stay in it for the long haul. If he cannot, he will be hurting soon. Wins rack up donations.

The following six states are the most likely he could pull three more out of, IMO:

1) Minnesota
2) Colorado
3) Virginia
4) Oklahoma
5) Tennessee
6) Georgia

I see little chance for him in the following states:

1) Arkansas
2) Alabama
3) Texas

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sanders will need some serious upsets on March 1. (Original Post) MohRokTah Feb 2016 OP
Colorado might swing his way bravenak Feb 2016 #1
I believe he wins 4 states, he needs to close the gap in other states. JRLeft Feb 2016 #3
I think he only gets a few overall bravenak Feb 2016 #5
If he won 5 or 6 and closed the gap then the primary would continue. If she blows him JRLeft Feb 2016 #9
Yep bravenak Feb 2016 #13
ME doesn't hold their Democratic Caucuses until March 6. MohRokTah Feb 2016 #11
Yep bravenak Feb 2016 #12
30 total. MohRokTah Feb 2016 #16
That's what I'm counting on. I really see little to no Clinton activities or literature here... Rocky the Leprechaun Feb 2016 #4
Its useless for her to waste money there bravenak Feb 2016 #8
Or maybe she doesn't have the resources to spend into Colorado Rocky the Leprechaun Feb 2016 #15
Addendum: No wonder why. Rocky the Leprechaun Feb 2016 #10
Ten days alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #2
He's got no shot in Tenn or Georgia either CorkySt.Clair Feb 2016 #6
First four on your list! californiabernin Feb 2016 #7
Hillary didn't throw in the towel after super tuesday '08 rocktivity Feb 2016 #14
Mass may not be a lock BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #17
 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
5. I think he only gets a few overall
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:42 PM
Feb 2016

VT, NH, ME, Colorado, and one or two more. Maybe oregon. Not enough.

 

JRLeft

(7,010 posts)
9. If he won 5 or 6 and closed the gap then the primary would continue. If she blows him
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:43 PM
Feb 2016

away it's over.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
16. 30 total.
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:50 PM
Feb 2016

That's fewer than New Hampshire or Nevada.

Hillary should have the solid lead in pledged delegates next week.

 
4. That's what I'm counting on. I really see little to no Clinton activities or literature here...
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:41 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie's already set up shop here in Colorado for months, and canvassing is underway, while I see nothing going on from the Clinton side on the Southeast side of Denver where I reside.

 
15. Or maybe she doesn't have the resources to spend into Colorado
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:49 PM
Feb 2016

She has probably lost more than won tonight. Seeing that she cannot prove that she has the financial capability She's gone to Texas already for an fundraiser and has a bunch lined up to get the dough and is having a hard time trying to convince people to buy expensive tickets to see Clinton. The donors are looking for a reason to continue to contribute to Clinton. Bernie has definitely exceeded expectations today, and it will be a great interest to see how much resources Clinton puts into South Carolina. She has to win by more than 22% to call it a win. Anything less than that, Clinton's already on her way to being finished.

 

CorkySt.Clair

(1,507 posts)
6. He's got no shot in Tenn or Georgia either
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:42 PM
Feb 2016

Virginia and Oklahoma also lean Hillary but Bernie is competitive.

His best hope is to win in Minnesota and Colorado.

 

californiabernin

(421 posts)
7. First four on your list!
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:42 PM
Feb 2016

We got this but we gotta get to work to do it!

After Tuesday, it only gets better!

BlueMTexpat

(15,370 posts)
17. Mass may not be a lock
Sat Feb 20, 2016, 08:52 PM
Feb 2016

for Bernie. Hillary was only down by 7 there. With momentum from NV (even though tight, it was still a win) and and a good win in SC, she could possibly overtake Bernie there. After all, the same pollster that some were citing in support of Sanders being close in VA (most reputable pollsters have Hillary at least +17 there) had Hillary at +6 in Mass. We'll see.

Vermont certainly is a lock for him. Colorado may break for him, especially because it is another caucus, but Hillary could still eke out a win there as she has done in IA and NV. I HATE caucuses and much prefer primaries. Hillary is slightly ahead in OK right now, but it is very close there. She's predicted to do well in VA and I believe that she will. If momentum from NV and SC carries over, she should also do well in TN, GA and the rest of the south.

MN's SuperDs include Al Franken, who is very well-liked in the state and a staunch Hillary supporter, so I believe that she'll ultimately prevail there, but it could be close.

But who knows? This is all speculation at this point.

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