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There is always a correlation between strong nation-wide numbers and winning the electoral college. If a candidate leads nationally by ten, it's improbable he'll lose the electoral college. It's just mathematically very unlikely. Now, in terms of close races, yes, the national polls become less predictive.

Still, we assume most states don't act in a vacuum. Because of this, support all around indicates the direction of a race. If Obama loses the popular vote, it's unlikely he wins Ohio and the necessary swing states to win the electoral college. You see what I'm saying? State polls matter the most ... but the margins are directly impacted by the overall popular vote.

To give you an example ... look at 2000. Gore won the popular vote by .5%. That's less than a percentage point nationally - or an overall total of 543,895 votes. If Gore had doubled that, and won one million votes, while his lead in the popular vote only marginally increases, it would've been significant enough to probably shift New Hampshire, which he lost by 7,211 votes. With New Hampshire's electoral votes, Gore wins the presidency.

So, national polls don't decide the presidency, but the overall margin gives you an idea of who is likely to win the electoral college. Gore lost the electoral college because his popular vote margin was razor thin. Had he won the popular vote by a full percentage point, he carries New Hampshire and Florida ... winning the electoral vote 296 to 242 at the worst.

thank you. And thanks to the others commenting.

But the state by state, the electoral college is also looking threatening for us. Right now, according to Real Clear Politics, the count is President Obama 251 and Robmeblind 180. They need 270 to win. So obviously President Obama needs only 19 to win. But of the states left, the battlegrounds, he is losing traction to the lying SOB. So what does that mean for us? Well it means if we don't get serious, we're going to lose this election. Mittens has momentum right now, and from a strategic standpoint, Momentum is a mother to stop. If Ryan whips Biden as badly this week, then the topic for the news for two weeks straight is Romney winning everything in sight.

People are making up their minds which way to vote. Romney is putting out issue ads about how he is going to change things. We're putting out ads about Big Bird. We have to turn this around, or we will find ourselves sitting around astounded, surprised, and out of office on election night.

National polls are pretty much useless.

State polling lags behind the national polls; therefore the national can show you where the state polls are about to head.