2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538.com: Obama victory odds now 71.2% (-3.6%)
Last edited Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:00 PM - Edit history (1)
No commentary yet, just updated stats. (Recently, Nate's been updating stats more than once daily on occasion, so this might change.)
EDITED: And he did update it -- it was 71.4% when I first posted it, then dropped another 0.2% in less than two hours. Ohio & NH poll margins shrinking (although both still showing Obama ahead)?
ncav53
(168 posts)Biden has to kick ass this next debate to help stop this momentum.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The pressure is on Ryan to keep the momentum from swinging back to Obama.. which it already is.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)flamingdem
(39,313 posts)GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)I missed the -3.4% in the original.
Thank you.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Intrade has Obama down more today - mid 60s arg.
Something tells me it will be close but any gains will go to Obama going forward ..
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)The hardest and most irritating part of the next week will be enduring this ridiculous Romney Love Fest the media has going on.
ugojwt2
(6 posts)your point is well taken,especially cnn,a mini foxnews,
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Obama admits he messed up. The media will naturally capitalize on that, but he knows he gave them that opening. Had he done a good debate, he'd pretty much have this in the bag right now.
At least this reminds people to take nothing for granted and to come out and vote. A couple of weeks ago some of the college students I know who were going to vote for Obama said they might not worry about voting since they assumed he was going to win. Maybe this will get people who were going to stay home to come out!
Response to GallopingGhost (Reply #2)
woolldog This message was self-deleted by its author.
Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)Romney had a superhumanly inept past couple of months that unrealistically deflated his support and chances. An inflatable Republican could probably be within striking distance of Obama right now given this country's polarization, and Romney is now finally pulling himself up to mediocrity.
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)Frumious B
(312 posts)It looks like Obama's numbers were really bad Oct 5-6 and rebounded in following days. Hopefully when we start getting polls that don't include those two days we will have a better idea of where we stand. His job approval level is solid. Gotta shake off that post debate polling "hangover".