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regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:23 PM Oct 2012

538.com: Obama victory odds now 71.2% (-3.6%)

Last edited Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:00 PM - Edit history (1)

No commentary yet, just updated stats. (Recently, Nate's been updating stats more than once daily on occasion, so this might change.)

EDITED: And he did update it -- it was 71.4% when I first posted it, then dropped another 0.2% in less than two hours. Ohio & NH poll margins shrinking (although both still showing Obama ahead)?

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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538.com: Obama victory odds now 71.2% (-3.6%) (Original Post) regnaD kciN Oct 2012 OP
Biden must kick ass ncav53 Oct 2012 #1
No he doesnt. DCBob Oct 2012 #11
What were they two days ago; anyone remember? GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #2
Yes. About 74 - 75 nt flamingdem Oct 2012 #3
Yes, sorry, GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #5
so did I! flamingdem Oct 2012 #6
I think so, too. GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #7
cnn wolf blitzer ugojwt2 Oct 2012 #9
No point complaining about the media - I've come to realize that TroyD Oct 2012 #12
This message was self-deleted by its author woolldog Oct 2012 #4
80%+ was inflated anyway Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #8
This is about 28.6% away from being a comfortable margin. tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #10
The numbers are getting knocked down by the flurry of polls that include the two post debate days Frumious B Oct 2012 #13

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
11. No he doesnt.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 06:59 PM
Oct 2012

The pressure is on Ryan to keep the momentum from swinging back to Obama.. which it already is.

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
6. so did I!
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:44 PM
Oct 2012

Intrade has Obama down more today - mid 60s arg.

Something tells me it will be close but any gains will go to Obama going forward ..

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)
7. I think so, too.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:53 PM
Oct 2012

The hardest and most irritating part of the next week will be enduring this ridiculous Romney Love Fest the media has going on.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
12. No point complaining about the media - I've come to realize that
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 06:59 PM
Oct 2012

Obama admits he messed up. The media will naturally capitalize on that, but he knows he gave them that opening. Had he done a good debate, he'd pretty much have this in the bag right now.

At least this reminds people to take nothing for granted and to come out and vote. A couple of weeks ago some of the college students I know who were going to vote for Obama said they might not worry about voting since they assumed he was going to win. Maybe this will get people who were going to stay home to come out!

Response to GallopingGhost (Reply #2)

Alekei_Firebird

(320 posts)
8. 80%+ was inflated anyway
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:57 PM
Oct 2012

Romney had a superhumanly inept past couple of months that unrealistically deflated his support and chances. An inflatable Republican could probably be within striking distance of Obama right now given this country's polarization, and Romney is now finally pulling himself up to mediocrity.

Frumious B

(312 posts)
13. The numbers are getting knocked down by the flurry of polls that include the two post debate days
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:05 PM
Oct 2012

It looks like Obama's numbers were really bad Oct 5-6 and rebounded in following days. Hopefully when we start getting polls that don't include those two days we will have a better idea of where we stand. His job approval level is solid. Gotta shake off that post debate polling "hangover".

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