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2016 Postmortem

Vietnameravet

(1,085 posts) Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:48 PM Oct 2012

with all the various polls there is just one analyst that I can trust to make sense of them

That is Nate Silver and he projects Obama with a 70% chance of winning..

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/oct-8-a-great-poll-for-romney-in-perspective/#more-35748

and i dont think it has to be said that a good performance in the next debates will greatly boost these chances.

4 replies

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with all the various polls there is just one analyst that I can trust to make sense of them (Original Post) Vietnameravet Oct 2012 OP

I agree Poiuyt Oct 2012 #1

And he just said that if the next round of polls showing Romney doing well TroyD Oct 2012 #2

That depends on the "likely voter" screen. gkhouston Oct 2012 #3

Troy - Is this all you do? thevoiceofreason Oct 2012 #4

Poiuyt

(18,123 posts)

1. I agree

Reply to Vietnameravet (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:31 PM

Oct 2012

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

2. And he just said that if the next round of polls showing Romney doing well

Reply to Vietnameravet (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:32 PM

Oct 2012

Then the Dems are in trouble.

Was just on Rachel Maddow.

gkhouston

(21,642 posts)

3. That depends on the "likely voter" screen.

Reply to TroyD (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:42 PM

Oct 2012

Is it the same now as it was a week ago? Two weeks ago? Compared to other polls? Be wary of people trying to compare measurements taken in different ways. I fully expect there to be a lot of creatively massaged "likely voter" screens whose purpose is to distort what's really happening.

thevoiceofreason

(3,440 posts)

4. Troy - Is this all you do?

Reply to TroyD (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:45 PM

Oct 2012

Are you paid to post? You just post on everything - and it's Debbie Downer. Go do something.

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