Hillary is toast.

Note the national poll numbers assumed at the top

" if he consistently beats these 50-50 benchmarks"

a pretty big "if" if you ask me

Silver's 538 model is based on the assumption that the race is tied nationally and it isn't, ergo:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/ *

She has a 10.5% national lead, according to Silver's own aggregate polling.

Expect HRC to get a national bump from Nevada and an even larger one when she overwhelms Senator Sanders in the Palmetto State.

If she is "toast" why does the predictions market give her an 87% chance of garnering the nomination:


http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination

and that number is rising ?

Silver made two models. One model based on a 12 point national HRC lead and another based on a tie race.

Silver's own poll shows her 10.5 points ahead and that was before the bounce she will get from NV, the bounce she will get from SC, and the bigger bounce she will get from Super Tuesday...

With the admonition that God hates soothsayers and mediums I am confident in asserting that the evidence suggests Hillary Clinton is well positioned to be our nominee...

Sanders fares better than Hillary in part because the Republicans want him as the nominee. If he becomes the nominee, he will be attacked as a socialist, a communist, for his lifestyle, for his multiple marriages, for his support for the Sandinistas, for his "honeymoon" in the Soviet Union, and so much more. They prefer him as the nominee because they think he's easier to be beat, just as many of us prefer Trump as the Republican nominee for that reason. Either Hillary or Clinton could win or lose the election. The polls don't mean much now.

not going to be taken out of his game.
He was not Sec of State when everything really went to hell in the ME, which includes the rise of Isis.
Bernie is NOT being investigated by the FBI with email dumps every month.

Bernie can attract Independents. Hillary can't. People do not like her. Just look at her unfavorable ratings, her honesty ratings.

Bernie does not come with all her baggage.

no attempts to drag his name through the mud what so ever.

The attacks from Hillary's henchman are pretty light weight, no different that the attacks from Sanders people.

right, we're evil because we want health care and education for folks. This democratic party is so dead. But you have a lovely evening, try to keep yourself safe while you work to make the world a little colder and a little harder.

Sanders will beat Trump, Clinton would have no chance

HRC has been thoroughly vetted.

Not indicted yet, but that could change.

Bernie is honest, sincere and speaks for the masses of voters. That wins elections.

The peer reviewed research suggests asking voters who they think will win is the best predictor of electoral success, ergo:

[div class="excerpt]









Hillary Clinton is a 10/11 favorite at the offshore betting sites and the VT senator is a 7-1 underdog


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner


If you bet on Hillary you have to put up $1,100 to win $1,000.00

If you bet on Bernie you have to put up $145.00 to win $1,000.00.





P.S. http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

After their super pacs drop about $500 million in vicious negative ads on him next summer while he's collecting $27 a pop trying to replenish his coffers from a long primary campaign.

Oh, they'll spend that on HRC, too. We can be sure of that. But as we've learned here on DU in recent months Hillary is evil incarnate, hated around the world. Theoretically there is less potential for that money to change the broad perception of her than there would be for Bernie who is considered more popular and likable at this stage of the campaign by some, including the media.

It's clear who the Repubs want to run against.

It's pretty amazing that many Bernie supporters seem to take his alleged GOP crossover appeal at face value.

To paraphrase Upton Sinclair "never try to get someone to believe something their whole world view hinges on not believing."

If I am wrong, at least I will be wrong based on following science and data, and not by following a highly value laden view of the world, like, errrrrr. climate deniers.

and what difference will it make that she has a D next to her name?

since she's a George W. Bush / Dick Cheney neoconservative.

and we've been saying this for a while. But they kind of stick their fingers in their ears and yell "LALALALALALALA! I can't hear you!" But you bet that IF she gets the nomination, they will be whining and moaning and blaming US when she loses to the Repubs.

Every time the Democrats lose the presidency, the left is blamed and the party moves right. It has
happened every time the Democrats have lost during my lifetime.

This election would be no different should the Dems lose.

She is a carpetbagging political opportunist without a core.

So no surprise people are dissapointed tonight. The good news is the majority seem to be handling it better than the Obama hating hack, Bill Press. I'm enjoying the crestfallen vibe he's putting out on the CNN repeat.

Quick: how much would he raise taxes?

No one has the answer off the top of their head.

If he becomes the nominee, the Republicans will pick a number that's borderline defensible and drill it into everyone's head such that people will think "$10 Trillion tax increase" is his running mate.

Just a bunch of old, worn out talking points. Hillary allows the GOP to shape her policy positions. Paralyzed in fear.

For all the reasons stated.

but people are too wrapped up in the Clinton Family cult of personality to be honest with themselves.

eom

Everyone else to them is a winner. So sure, they could lose to Trump. That doesn't concern them as much as Bernie winning. As long as a neocon is in the WH. All is well.

You on the other hand are already seeking to assign blame for a hypothetical loss.

How about having a Positive Mental Attitude about winning rather than making weak threats about consequences of you not getting your way.

Way to close with an insult, that's always a great persuasion tactic

Running against Hillary.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font][hr]

He's losing because of those pesky voters.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font][hr]

His present numbers against Republicans don't reflect it. Those are facts, too.

for crying out loud, sanders is not winning the 55yr and above vote for a reason....just think about the attack ads that will paint him as a pacifist ..painting him as a conscientious objector running away from serving his country....especially in today's climate of terrorism and world instability....bernie will be crucified in the PR battle and most likely give GOP a landslide in the same manner they got when McGovern was annihilated and McGovern served his country....america is not going to elect any one that appears to be weak kneed as a president. We do not live in Kumbaya world....

Social Security and, I bet, Medicare and the ACA.

All the Third Way wish list. Lots of shit on that list, and it would all becoming to every home near you!

Oh, and...

War with Iran.

Supporting apartheid as usual in Israel.

Plenty of H1B visas for corporations + plenty of pink slips for US workers.

Crushing debt for the 99%, political reacharounds for the1%.

That scenario is at least as likely.

So just checking, will that mean Bernie and his supporters are "to blame?"

You now who is to blame if we don't win the presidency, for real? Divisive haters who sow rage and division that demoralize and turn off liberal and democratic and progressive independent voters. That's happening on both sides, but you gotta admit the Sanders folks are acting like especially sore losers this morning on DU, which I didn't see from the Clinton supporters after NH in nearly the same measure.

I haven't made up my mind whom I'm voting for in the primary in my state. I had planned to vote Sanders as a protest vote and switched from I to D to be able to do it. Now I'm leaning Clinton because we need to get this over with and end the divisiveness.

I am just amazed at some of the rants on DU this morning. It's like some of you have never seen a real fight before.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font][hr]

The DNC did everything in it's power to make sure HRC had no serious competition fro within the party.

Party members played along. I would have loved to see Sherrod Brown, Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, and of course Elizabeth Warren vying to lead this country; I like some of them more than others, but the debate among them would have show the country a robust, forward-looking, dynamic party. Instead we have a primary season that increasingly resembles Thanskgiving dinner with my in-laws.

And don't get me started on the debate schedule.

DWS, the DNC, and feckless Dems who didn't step up will own this loss.

Young Turks goes point by point through the data posted 2/18/16, two days ago. She doesn't win against any of them; Bernie beats all of them. Which outcome do you prefer?

The truth is... there are some Dems who won't vote for an old white guy even if he's the only one who can salvage the situation. THAT'S what's true. (Especially a Jewish old white guy.)

Not Hillary, not Sanders.

Ourselves.

And I'm tempted to say that means both us as Democrats and us as Americans.

Unless you want to lose the general to the repubs, then not voting for the Democratic candidate, whether its Bernie or Hillary, is not an option.

And any supporter of either of our candidates who whines that we will lose with the other as the nominee but doesn't commit to supporting our nominee to the fullest is someone who wants us to lose the general. Period.

to wake up the Democratic Party. This is the year of the outsider, not the year of the also ran.

If Hilly wins the nomination she also has a good chance to lose the general.

Expect Dem + Independent voters to be turned off by A Clinton/Corperate ticket and stay home.

If she happens to win then we, the 98%, wil lose. It wil be business as usual, and Wal Street will be allowed to sack, rape and pillage until the next crash. Then, after we, the 99%, have ben forced to bail them out again. This also dorsn't include crushing student loans, Hilly's hunger for more H1B visas, her penchant for saber ratling with Iran, how deeply her face is pressed up the backside of apartheid Israel or the very real problem if republicans investigating her emails, Kenneth Star style, and looking for her "blue dress."

On the flip side, a Clinton loss wil be blamed by the establishment as Bernie liberals staying home while Hillary Dems did the right thing...which of course will be a bullshit claim, but it won't be the first time that the above excuse has ben used by team personality cult.

Either way, Clinton will stil be an insider politician, raking in access and power, while we, the 99%, suffer through another 4 years of establishment bullshit and incrementalist poverty.

No way I know of to elect someone no one wants.

The oligarchy wants a Trump vs Clinton because they win either way.

However, no citizen republican will ever vote for Clinton - never.
The oligarchy prefers a republican fascist like Trump.

And possibly, many real democrats have had it with voting for the lesser
of two evils and will vote for a Green candidate or a write-in instead of
a Clinton.

Her supporters ignore them at their own peril.