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wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:09 PM Feb 2016

Sanders’s appeal is not broad enough among key groups of the Democratic party

Bernie Sanders’s loss in the Nevada caucuses, 47 percent to 53 percent, reveals a very real weakness of his insurgent challenge to Hillary Clinton.

According to entrance polls — which may have had some problems of their own, problems that we’ll discuss shortly — Sanders’s appeal is not broad enough among key groups that traditionally make up the base of the Democratic Party.

He lost among women, blacks, nonwhites, and self-described Democrats. But the loss was even more troubling for his camp than that. He also lost highly educated caucusgoers with postgraduate degrees, both the poorest and wealthiest groups, and moderates. He lost those who saw health care and the economy as the most important issues of the election, even though those are key parts of Sanders’s platform and issues on which he is most eloquent and persuasive.

And perhaps most interestingly, he lost overwhelmingly among people who wanted a candidate who could win in November.

It is very hard to see how Sanders wins the nomination without winning the black and Hispanic vote in the Southern and Western states, not to mention New York and Michigan.

Lastly, the political revolution on which Sanders has hinged his ability to accomplish his ambitious plan keeps failing to materialize. This year’s Democratic caucus participation was down nearly a third from 2008, and in Iowa and New Hampshire there were more voters — or caucusgoers — making choices in the Republican contest than in the Democratic one.

As Sanders told Meet the Press about the Nevada loss: “We did not do as good a job as I had wanted to bring out a large turnout.”

That doesn’t sound like a political revolution to me.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/opinion/bernie-sanders-hits-a-roadblock.html?_r=0

46 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sanders’s appeal is not broad enough among key groups of the Democratic party (Original Post) wyldwolf Feb 2016 OP
Just as long as we end up with a democrat in the WH 2016, I'm OK with whatever happens. n/t RKP5637 Feb 2016 #1
I'll be fine either way. If I were poorer, I would be a very aggressive Bernie supporter. Lucky Luciano Feb 2016 #2
Someone posted the other day that a huge number of people are border poverty in the US. I'm RKP5637 Feb 2016 #4
I would agree that if his policies got enacted, there would be no questions its better drray23 Feb 2016 #37
I dunno...if he gets in, there will be a tailwind that improves congress. Lucky Luciano Feb 2016 #43
Unless it's Bernie we wont. Dont forget, Bernie has 53k more votes for him than Hillary, and we litlbilly Feb 2016 #5
I really like Bernie. He reminds me of the old time democrats that helped make this country great for RKP5637 Feb 2016 #10
Live off that NH tally for the next week... brooklynite Feb 2016 #21
Bernie will do better in other states that Obama didn't do as well in. Lucky Luciano Feb 2016 #26
IOW "How could these people be so stupid as to not vote for MY candidate? brooklynite Feb 2016 #31
Just said I am befuddled - not a clue as to what they see. Lucky Luciano Feb 2016 #32
Don't Put Words in Peoples Mouths noretreatnosurrender Feb 2016 #33
That's how I feel. giftedgirl77 Feb 2016 #36
They'll smarten up soon Politicalboi Feb 2016 #3
If Hillary's people stay in the dirt, thats where they will end up sooner rather than later. litlbilly Feb 2016 #7
Signs of vote suppression all over the place RobertEarl Feb 2016 #6
And the DNC just doesn't get it, or far too many are on the take. Millions and millions of RKP5637 Feb 2016 #11
DNC doesn't care RobertEarl Feb 2016 #15
I hope so! The DNC needs a swift kick in the ass! n/t RKP5637 Feb 2016 #16
The question for me is Bjornsdotter Feb 2016 #8
Yep! n/t RKP5637 Feb 2016 #13
An "opinion" piece ? GreatGazoo Feb 2016 #9
I'm sorry but I must use that gif at the bottom of your sigline bravenak Feb 2016 #35
You're welcome to it, of course. GreatGazoo Feb 2016 #38
It is perfection bravenak Feb 2016 #39
Yes, because the Bernie supporter is on the Left and the.... GreatGazoo Feb 2016 #40
. bravenak Feb 2016 #42
It was all about turnout - Too many old people kcjohn1 Feb 2016 #12
Many old people in this country are really hurting financially, it would seem logically they RKP5637 Feb 2016 #14
Older voters are most conservative kcjohn1 Feb 2016 #19
Advertisers focus on 18-54 year olds because they have more disposable income. Hoyt Feb 2016 #20
55+ has around 70% of the disposable income kcjohn1 Feb 2016 #24
Very good point! I know some older people that always buy the same brand of stuff even though RKP5637 Feb 2016 #34
Thanks!!! n/t RKP5637 Feb 2016 #27
He only lost by 5 points after being DOWN by 20-25. Looking at THOSE odds, he won on a smaller nc4bo Feb 2016 #17
Clinton's appeal is not even close to deep enough among independents to win the GE. mhatrw Feb 2016 #18
Same argument for Clinton. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #22
One could argue that Clinton's appeal is not broad enough among democrats in general. TheProgressive Feb 2016 #23
thanks for posting mgmaggiemg Feb 2016 #25
What, he's not attracting enough hedge fund managers? The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2016 #28
How is Hillary going to win millennials? How is she going to inspire them to come out & vote for her jillan Feb 2016 #29
not yet. He has 10 days to turn that around. nt geek tragedy Feb 2016 #30
It just goes to show you kacekwl Feb 2016 #41
Interesting analysis. We'll see how well it holds up in Philadephia because we're not going away. mikehiggins Feb 2016 #44
Its looking more like a temper tantrum of the establishment on the Dem side than a revolution uponit7771 Feb 2016 #45
The Inevitable Steamroll Meme Armstead Feb 2016 #46

Lucky Luciano

(11,257 posts)
2. I'll be fine either way. If I were poorer, I would be a very aggressive Bernie supporter.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:14 PM
Feb 2016

It is utterly indisputable that Bernie is better for ALL people making less than $100K.

I quietly root for Bernie as I love seeing the underdog take on the well oiled machine. I certainly don't tell anyone at work though!!!! The hedge fund I work at is mostly for Hillary and against Cruz and against Trump. I think they would prefer a sane republican to Hillary, but here we are.

RKP5637

(67,111 posts)
4. Someone posted the other day that a huge number of people are border poverty in the US. I'm
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:20 PM
Feb 2016

surprised he's not really more popular. I think he's better for many people. I have some really really wealthy friends that vote republican because they are afraid the democrats will take away their money. It's silly, they think and act like democrats, yet vote republican to protect their wealth. They have enough income that a bit of a tax increase they would likely not even notice. I'm always in favor of doing what makes sense for poor people.

drray23

(7,633 posts)
37. I would agree that if his policies got enacted, there would be no questions its better
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:14 PM
Feb 2016

However since he is unlikely to get anything passed, even if elected it would probably be worse off.

Lucky Luciano

(11,257 posts)
43. I dunno...if he gets in, there will be a tailwind that improves congress.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:57 PM
Feb 2016

We probably retake the senate and win back some seats in the house. If Hillary gets in, that tailwind doesn't exist and congress will be very unkind to her too - if they do in fact get stuff done, it will be too much on their terms and not ours.

Bernie would use the position of president to apply continuous pressure and would not back down. He would happily expose the ruthless monsters (republicans) for what they are - bully pulpit etc.

Who knows - maybe Hillary will surprise me too - low expectations and all. She may just want to get revenge on the thugs by being progressive!

 

litlbilly

(2,227 posts)
5. Unless it's Bernie we wont. Dont forget, Bernie has 53k more votes for him than Hillary, and we
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:20 PM
Feb 2016

are just getting started. Hang onto your hats, gonna be a bumpy ride. Bernie also is the only one who can beat any and all repubs.

RKP5637

(67,111 posts)
10. I really like Bernie. He reminds me of the old time democrats that helped make this country great for
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:24 PM
Feb 2016

many people. IMO over the past few decades the democratic party has gotten seriously derailed from what it used to be. The DLC decided the party needed to be more light republican. Where I lived at one time the democratic candidates were more right wing than the moderate republicans.

brooklynite

(94,591 posts)
21. Live off that NH tally for the next week...
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:44 PM
Feb 2016

...in the South Carolina Primary, Obama beat Clinton by 150,000 votes with a 30% differential. Clinton's ahead by 28%. I think you can do the math.

Lucky Luciano

(11,257 posts)
26. Bernie will do better in other states that Obama didn't do as well in.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:49 PM
Feb 2016

I am mystified by poc support for Hillary (as befuddling as P-NP conjecture) but it is clearly there.

brooklynite

(94,591 posts)
31. IOW "How could these people be so stupid as to not vote for MY candidate?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:53 PM
Feb 2016

That'll be a catchy bumper sticker.

Lucky Luciano

(11,257 posts)
32. Just said I am befuddled - not a clue as to what they see.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:58 PM
Feb 2016

Last edited Sun Feb 21, 2016, 10:05 PM - Edit history (2)

I'll be just fine with Hillary in the White House because I am very comfortable - however, as I recently mentioned upthread, if I were not very comfortable, I would be stumping for bernie big time. I am making my comments more as an independent observer since I will be fine either way.

I do root for Bernie though because I do like the idea of the underdog having such a monumental upset. Like seeing those college kids in 1980 beat the professional Russian team at the olympics. I love that sort of thing!

 

Politicalboi

(15,189 posts)
3. They'll smarten up soon
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:16 PM
Feb 2016

I don't know how lying and cheating are appealing to some, but to each his own.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
6. Signs of vote suppression all over the place
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:21 PM
Feb 2016

The only way the establishment can win is by suppressing the vote.

RKP5637

(67,111 posts)
11. And the DNC just doesn't get it, or far too many are on the take. Millions and millions of
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:28 PM
Feb 2016

people are totally fed up with 'the establishment, 'republicans and democrats. The DNC is really fracturing the party IMO with their shenanigans.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
15. DNC doesn't care
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:34 PM
Feb 2016

They have theirs and they are afraid we are coming to take our fair share. They are quite correct. We are coming.

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
9. An "opinion" piece ?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:22 PM
Feb 2016

when there is good data available.

Love the slant:

most interestingly, he lost overwhelmingly among people who wanted a candidate who could win in November.
 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
35. I'm sorry but I must use that gif at the bottom of your sigline
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:04 PM
Feb 2016

Its like a redistribution of gifs. Thank you for it. It pleases me.

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
38. You're welcome to it, of course.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:19 PM
Feb 2016

I saw it on a FaceBook post Thursday and it summed up GD-P in one GIF so well that I had to have it. Couldn't link the GIF I saw there and spent quite a while trying to find a source for it so I know the feeling.

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
12. It was all about turnout - Too many old people
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:29 PM
Feb 2016

Sanders lost the 65+ 2 to 1. He won voters under 65 in NV. The problem is 65+ made up 28% of the caucus. In NH they only represented 18%. This is basically the difference between winning and losing NV.

They are spinning and trying to find complex issues. Just look at the 65+ and percentage of the electorate they make up. Low turnout = Too many old people deciding the election. High turnout = More Younger Voters = Sanders (Younger is relative and consists of anyone under 50).

RKP5637

(67,111 posts)
14. Many old people in this country are really hurting financially, it would seem logically they
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:33 PM
Feb 2016

would go for Bernie. Old people I know are for Bernie, but I guess that's the exception. I wonder, are they voting for Clinton because of the name, or do they think Bernie is some kind ot horrible communist. Damn, the way people think often eludes me as to their logic, if they even have any at all.

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
19. Older voters are most conservative
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:39 PM
Feb 2016

I don't know political voting pattern studies, but I know in advertising its difficult to market to old people. The thinking is that they are set in their ways, and usually advertisers focus on 18-54 age bracket. That is why when you look at TV ratings, advertisers pay primarily on 18-54 viewers.

Clinton is the known quantity to these voters. Plus older voters tend to be richer and have more assets than under 65. Basically its difficult to reach these voters, and I suspect you basically need to go negative to get them to switch from Clinton to Sanders.

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
24. 55+ has around 70% of the disposable income
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:47 PM
Feb 2016

Advertisers focus on younger voters because they don't have as strong brand loyalty. No amount of advertising is going to effect 65 year old who has being buying from a brand for 20-30 years.

RKP5637

(67,111 posts)
34. Very good point! I know some older people that always buy the same brand of stuff even though
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:59 PM
Feb 2016

it's crap today, totally ignoring the fact that products and companies change, even though the product has the same name but now it's now total crap and often overpriced.

nc4bo

(17,651 posts)
17. He only lost by 5 points after being DOWN by 20-25. Looking at THOSE odds, he won on a smaller
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:36 PM
Feb 2016

scale.

Her campaign spent a titantic load of cash and months and months (perhaps years) of campaign time in Nevada and 5 measly points is ALL they got out of it?!!!

Damn!

A win maybe be a win but there's nothing trot-worthy about this squeaker.

Hillary is not nearly as strong as she thought hence the kitchen sink and septic tank being thrown around by DUs resident Eeyores and the 911 call to DNC to release the Kraken of corporate $$$$$$$$s NOW!



mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
18. Clinton's appeal is not even close to deep enough among independents to win the GE.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:38 PM
Feb 2016

In fact, she is far more unfavorable in eyes of independent voters than any other candidate in either party.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
22. Same argument for Clinton.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:46 PM
Feb 2016

She badly loses youth vote, that were an important part of Obamas 2008 win.
She badly loses the left wing of the party vote, which has until now reliably voted for the Dem nominee.
She loses the under $50,000 income vote.
She badly loses the necessary independant vote.

 

TheProgressive

(1,656 posts)
23. One could argue that Clinton's appeal is not broad enough among democrats in general.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:47 PM
Feb 2016

Sanders and Clinton are tied in the delegate count.

Sanders won big in NH, tied in Iowa, and lost by ~5% on NV.

Clinton's once commanding lead (via polling) is vanishing...

Just more propaganda from the NYTimes.

jillan

(39,451 posts)
29. How is Hillary going to win millennials? How is she going to inspire them to come out & vote for her
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:52 PM
Feb 2016

They'll just stay home especially after all the slime that has been thrown their way.

kacekwl

(7,017 posts)
41. It just goes to show you
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:36 PM
Feb 2016

people are not paying attention . They would rather play it "safe" and keep things the same or worse than fight for what they deserve. Fear of change can be hard for some.

mikehiggins

(5,614 posts)
44. Interesting analysis. We'll see how well it holds up in Philadephia because we're not going away.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 10:19 PM
Feb 2016

Nihao ma!

uponit7771

(90,347 posts)
45. Its looking more like a temper tantrum of the establishment on the Dem side than a revolution
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 10:24 PM
Feb 2016

... if Sanders is losing Blacks, Hispanics, Gays, Women, Black Millennials and non white poor..

Who else is left?

No really, the most marginalized is leaning away from Sanders message and into a person they feel is imperfectly as marginalized as they are.

This isn't 2008...


Change has come and taken root

 

Armstead

(47,803 posts)
46. The Inevitable Steamroll Meme
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 10:24 PM
Feb 2016

Same crap that has been shoved down our throat since long before the primary even started and Bernie even declared.

Clinton (TM) is already the inevitable nominee and is the assured next president. Anyone would be foolish to challenge her. She is beloved by everyone. Any challenger is a loser.

Don't question. Don't challenge. Obey. Nothing to see here citizen. Move on.

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