2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders’s appeal is not broad enough among key groups of the Democratic party
Bernie Sanderss loss in the Nevada caucuses, 47 percent to 53 percent, reveals a very real weakness of his insurgent challenge to Hillary Clinton.
According to entrance polls which may have had some problems of their own, problems that well discuss shortly Sanderss appeal is not broad enough among key groups that traditionally make up the base of the Democratic Party.
He lost among women, blacks, nonwhites, and self-described Democrats. But the loss was even more troubling for his camp than that. He also lost highly educated caucusgoers with postgraduate degrees, both the poorest and wealthiest groups, and moderates. He lost those who saw health care and the economy as the most important issues of the election, even though those are key parts of Sanderss platform and issues on which he is most eloquent and persuasive.
And perhaps most interestingly, he lost overwhelmingly among people who wanted a candidate who could win in November.
It is very hard to see how Sanders wins the nomination without winning the black and Hispanic vote in the Southern and Western states, not to mention New York and Michigan.
Lastly, the political revolution on which Sanders has hinged his ability to accomplish his ambitious plan keeps failing to materialize. This years Democratic caucus participation was down nearly a third from 2008, and in Iowa and New Hampshire there were more voters or caucusgoers making choices in the Republican contest than in the Democratic one.
As Sanders told Meet the Press about the Nevada loss: We did not do as good a job as I had wanted to bring out a large turnout.
That doesnt sound like a political revolution to me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/opinion/bernie-sanders-hits-a-roadblock.html?_r=0
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)Lucky Luciano
(11,257 posts)It is utterly indisputable that Bernie is better for ALL people making less than $100K.
I quietly root for Bernie as I love seeing the underdog take on the well oiled machine. I certainly don't tell anyone at work though!!!! The hedge fund I work at is mostly for Hillary and against Cruz and against Trump. I think they would prefer a sane republican to Hillary, but here we are.
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)surprised he's not really more popular. I think he's better for many people. I have some really really wealthy friends that vote republican because they are afraid the democrats will take away their money. It's silly, they think and act like democrats, yet vote republican to protect their wealth. They have enough income that a bit of a tax increase they would likely not even notice. I'm always in favor of doing what makes sense for poor people.
drray23
(7,633 posts)However since he is unlikely to get anything passed, even if elected it would probably be worse off.
Lucky Luciano
(11,257 posts)We probably retake the senate and win back some seats in the house. If Hillary gets in, that tailwind doesn't exist and congress will be very unkind to her too - if they do in fact get stuff done, it will be too much on their terms and not ours.
Bernie would use the position of president to apply continuous pressure and would not back down. He would happily expose the ruthless monsters (republicans) for what they are - bully pulpit etc.
Who knows - maybe Hillary will surprise me too - low expectations and all. She may just want to get revenge on the thugs by being progressive!
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)are just getting started. Hang onto your hats, gonna be a bumpy ride. Bernie also is the only one who can beat any and all repubs.
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)many people. IMO over the past few decades the democratic party has gotten seriously derailed from what it used to be. The DLC decided the party needed to be more light republican. Where I lived at one time the democratic candidates were more right wing than the moderate republicans.
brooklynite
(94,591 posts)...in the South Carolina Primary, Obama beat Clinton by 150,000 votes with a 30% differential. Clinton's ahead by 28%. I think you can do the math.
Lucky Luciano
(11,257 posts)I am mystified by poc support for Hillary (as befuddling as P-NP conjecture) but it is clearly there.
brooklynite
(94,591 posts)That'll be a catchy bumper sticker.
Lucky Luciano
(11,257 posts)Last edited Sun Feb 21, 2016, 10:05 PM - Edit history (2)
I'll be just fine with Hillary in the White House because I am very comfortable - however, as I recently mentioned upthread, if I were not very comfortable, I would be stumping for bernie big time. I am making my comments more as an independent observer since I will be fine either way.
I do root for Bernie though because I do like the idea of the underdog having such a monumental upset. Like seeing those college kids in 1980 beat the professional Russian team at the olympics. I love that sort of thing!
noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)That's not what they said and you know it. Shame on you.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)I don't know how lying and cheating are appealing to some, but to each his own.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)The only way the establishment can win is by suppressing the vote.
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)people are totally fed up with 'the establishment, 'republicans and democrats. The DNC is really fracturing the party IMO with their shenanigans.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)They have theirs and they are afraid we are coming to take our fair share. They are quite correct. We are coming.
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)Bjornsdotter
(6,123 posts)....why did Hillary lose almost half of the votes?
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)when there is good data available.
Love the slant:
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Its like a redistribution of gifs. Thank you for it. It pleases me.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)I saw it on a FaceBook post Thursday and it summed up GD-P in one GIF so well that I had to have it. Couldn't link the GIF I saw there and spent quite a while trying to find a source for it so I know the feeling.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)(just kidding)
kcjohn1
(751 posts)Sanders lost the 65+ 2 to 1. He won voters under 65 in NV. The problem is 65+ made up 28% of the caucus. In NH they only represented 18%. This is basically the difference between winning and losing NV.
They are spinning and trying to find complex issues. Just look at the 65+ and percentage of the electorate they make up. Low turnout = Too many old people deciding the election. High turnout = More Younger Voters = Sanders (Younger is relative and consists of anyone under 50).
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)would go for Bernie. Old people I know are for Bernie, but I guess that's the exception. I wonder, are they voting for Clinton because of the name, or do they think Bernie is some kind ot horrible communist. Damn, the way people think often eludes me as to their logic, if they even have any at all.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)I don't know political voting pattern studies, but I know in advertising its difficult to market to old people. The thinking is that they are set in their ways, and usually advertisers focus on 18-54 age bracket. That is why when you look at TV ratings, advertisers pay primarily on 18-54 viewers.
Clinton is the known quantity to these voters. Plus older voters tend to be richer and have more assets than under 65. Basically its difficult to reach these voters, and I suspect you basically need to go negative to get them to switch from Clinton to Sanders.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)kcjohn1
(751 posts)Advertisers focus on younger voters because they don't have as strong brand loyalty. No amount of advertising is going to effect 65 year old who has being buying from a brand for 20-30 years.
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)it's crap today, totally ignoring the fact that products and companies change, even though the product has the same name but now it's now total crap and often overpriced.
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)nc4bo
(17,651 posts)scale.
Her campaign spent a titantic load of cash and months and months (perhaps years) of campaign time in Nevada and 5 measly points is ALL they got out of it?!!!
Damn!
A win maybe be a win but there's nothing trot-worthy about this squeaker.
Hillary is not nearly as strong as she thought hence the kitchen sink and septic tank being thrown around by DUs resident Eeyores and the 911 call to DNC to release the Kraken of corporate $$$$$$$$s NOW!
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)In fact, she is far more unfavorable in eyes of independent voters than any other candidate in either party.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)She badly loses youth vote, that were an important part of Obamas 2008 win.
She badly loses the left wing of the party vote, which has until now reliably voted for the Dem nominee.
She loses the under $50,000 income vote.
She badly loses the necessary independant vote.
TheProgressive
(1,656 posts)Sanders and Clinton are tied in the delegate count.
Sanders won big in NH, tied in Iowa, and lost by ~5% on NV.
Clinton's once commanding lead (via polling) is vanishing...
Just more propaganda from the NYTimes.
mgmaggiemg
(869 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,732 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)They'll just stay home especially after all the slime that has been thrown their way.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)kacekwl
(7,017 posts)people are not paying attention . They would rather play it "safe" and keep things the same or worse than fight for what they deserve. Fear of change can be hard for some.
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)Nihao ma!
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)... if Sanders is losing Blacks, Hispanics, Gays, Women, Black Millennials and non white poor..
Who else is left?
No really, the most marginalized is leaning away from Sanders message and into a person they feel is imperfectly as marginalized as they are.
This isn't 2008...
Change has come and taken root
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Same crap that has been shoved down our throat since long before the primary even started and Bernie even declared.
Clinton (TM) is already the inevitable nominee and is the assured next president. Anyone would be foolish to challenge her. She is beloved by everyone. Any challenger is a loser.
Don't question. Don't challenge. Obey. Nothing to see here citizen. Move on.