2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie's South Carolina problem
From Politico..
In the first-in-the-West caucuses, African-Americans cast just 13 percent of the vote. In the upcoming first-in-the-South primary, theyre expected to cast nearly 60 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Then, several days later, comes a burst of Super Tuesday primaries where Sanders must run in nine states with higher black populations than Nevada.
Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster, laid out Sanders' quandary in direct terms.
"This is Bernie Sanders' problem: If you cannot compete for the black vote, you cannot be the Democratic nominee for president," Belcher said. If Bernie Sanders can crack her black wall in South Carolina, it is real problematic for her moving forward because right now he's competing very strong for white progressive voters and certainly dominating certain segments of the electorate."
More: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-african-americans-south-carolina-219441
Bottom line Bernie cannot win without connecting with African American voters and so far he has failed miserably.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)you're just another brick in the wall.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Matariki
(18,775 posts)thanks for reminding me there's something outside this horrible primary
drray23
(7,633 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)It inspires me to not be one.
jonjon
(68 posts)After all, its difficult to trust a politician who completely fabricated a story about being fired upon by snipers. Like POLITIFACT states, its hard to understand how she could err on something so significant as whether she did or didnt dodge sniper bullets.
71% of men and 64% of women find Clinton not honest and trustworthy.
74% of Independent voters find Clinton not honest and trustworthy.
35% of Democrats find Clinton not honest and trustworthy. Yes, even Democrats.
In contrast, Kathy Frankovic of YouGov.com states Bernie Sanders is the most widely trusted presidential candidate of either party.
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/19/hillary_clinton_just_cant_win_democrats_need_to_accept_that_only_bernie_sanders_can_defeat_the_gop/
DrDan
(20,411 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)(Except for Bernie followers.)
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)I think not. Bernie has closed strong in each of the first three contests.....I'm not saying that he will win the black vote, but he will surprise to the upside.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)When is this magical "surprise to upside" going to happen and why? He's running out of time.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bernie is shooting for the surprise to the upside on election day.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)he has been rising there too, and he will be devoted to campaigning in SC this week.
He will close the gap.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He got 22% of the AA vote in Nevada and is polling about the same or less in most of the southern states. Those numbers are pathetic. He's been campaigning for months trying to connect with AA voters. It simply ain't happening.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bernie has a much better chance of improving far beyond her numbers.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Hillary has less of a chance this time, than in 2008.
Bernie will also exceed expectations on Super Tuesday, and you will be forced to face reality.
Bernie has been competitive in all three contests, while Hillary was blown out in NH.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)You're not going to see the same level of excitement as an insurgent candidate like Bernie or Trump would generate. Doesn't matter. she will still win.. incumbents usually do.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bernie is now polling in the 40's as his base continues to grow....When he starts polling in the 50's panic will ensue in the Democratic establishment.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)and will be our next President.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Rocky the Leprechaun
(222 posts)will go to her grave a bitter person
Never being able to figure it out how she just couldn't win. I feel for her but right now America needs a good person for our President and she clearly is not that good of a person.
No, Hillary will never be President of these united states and you can mark my words on that.
noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)I agree with that statement.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie needs to take note.
noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)Bernie already knows this.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I may have predicted this. It will continue because he has no relationship with us. We were not at the Regatta.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)Instead of putting you in jail like someone...
bravenak
(34,648 posts)He was fighting for the integrity of our nation. I was not BORN
hoosierlib
(710 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Rocky the Leprechaun
(222 posts)As a Bernie supporter, I'll say this, "OK"
Clinton is still finished. Bernie will surprise a lot of people in South Carolina and win by a squeaker.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Clearly something is wrong with Bernie's approach and message.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)This message has been hidden by jury decision
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Seems we cannot speak our voice around here without getting slapped down.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)Obama couldn't win Hispanics. Yawn.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)No Obama, no record turn-out by AA voters...
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Furthermore no Democrat will be able to win a general election without a big showing from the African American voters. Hillary will get that no doubt.. Bernie we are not so sure.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)And that was with Obama running...historic precedent / average has been around 47%...and add to it that the state has been getting whiter over the last 8 years (lots of white transplants from the MW and NE as boomers retire and Hispanics)...so I highly doubt it meets or exceeds 2008 levels (some polls are using a range of between 54% to 60%).
That being said, unless there is a major shift in the polls (which I highly doubt as older AA voters prefer HRC) over the next week, Bernie will lose by 20...
I expect that this same scenario will play out in other SEC states in the coming weeks (MS, AL, AR, GA, LA and TN)...roughly 60% to 40% victories...
kcjohn1
(751 posts)Outside of South they make up small subset of the total population. In 08 they made up 19% of the total Dem primary and that was when there was generational candidate in Obama.
Bernie does not need to win the black vote. He just needs to win ~30%, and win both white/latino voters by ~5.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)kcjohn1
(751 posts)Iowa POC exit poll was 58/34 Clinton
NH POC exit poll was 50/49 Sanders
NV Black Vote 76/22
SC will be very telling b/c black voters for the first time will be substantial portion of the vote and we should enough sample to delve into the numbers.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Rank State African-American Alone
Population (2010)[1] % African-American
1 Mississippi 1,074,200 37.30%
2 Louisiana 1,506,534 32.4%
3 Georgia 3,150,435 31.4%
4 Maryland 1,798,593 30.1%
5 South Carolina 1,290,684 28.48%
6 Alabama 1,251,311 26.38%
7 North Carolina 2,048,628 21.60%
8 Delaware 191,814 20.95%
9 Virginia 1,551,399 19.91%
10 Tennessee 1,055,689 16.78%
11 Florida 2,999,862 15.91%
12 Arkansas 449,895 15.76%
13 New York 3,073,800 15.18%
14 Illinois 1,866,414 14.88%
15 New Jersey 1,204,826 14.46%
16 Michigan 1,400,362 14.24%
17 Ohio 1,407,681 12.04%
18 Texas 2,979,598 11.91%
19 Missouri 704,043 11.49%
20 Pennsylvania 1,377,689 10.79%
21 Connecticut 362,296 10.34%
22 Indiana 591,397 9.07%
23 Nevada 255,633 9.0%
24 Kentucky 361,273 8.2%
25 Massachusetts 528,761 8.1%
26 Oklahoma 277,644 7.96%
27 Rhode Island 79,719 7.5%
28 California 2,299,072 6.67%
29 Kansas 167,864 6.15%
30 Wisconsin 359,148 6.07%
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)He only talked about Super Tuesday, so I'm guessing that he isn't expecting good results in South Carolina.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I guess he see's the writing on the wall down there.