Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:27 PM Feb 2016

Bernie's South Carolina problem

From Politico..

On the heels of losing the black vote by a blowout margin of 76 percent to 22 percent, according to entrance polls, the Vermont senator now must look ahead to South Carolina next Saturday, where African-Americans will cast a dramatically larger share of the vote than in Nevada.

In the first-in-the-West caucuses, African-Americans cast just 13 percent of the vote. In the upcoming first-in-the-South primary, they’re expected to cast nearly 60 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Then, several days later, comes a burst of Super Tuesday primaries where Sanders must run in nine states with higher black populations than Nevada.

Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster, laid out Sanders' quandary in direct terms.

"This is Bernie Sanders' problem: If you cannot compete for the black vote, you cannot be the Democratic nominee for president," Belcher said. “If Bernie Sanders can crack her black wall in South Carolina, it is real problematic for her moving forward because right now he's competing very strong for white progressive voters and certainly dominating certain segments of the electorate."


More: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-african-americans-south-carolina-219441

Bottom line Bernie cannot win without connecting with African American voters and so far he has failed miserably.
52 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Bernie's South Carolina problem (Original Post) DCBob Feb 2016 OP
all in all. Matariki Feb 2016 #1
Yup. nt artislife Feb 2016 #2
Rather lovely this time of year, ins't it? Tarc Feb 2016 #3
That's a beautiful photo Matariki Feb 2016 #8
is that the nile? looks like it.nt. drray23 Feb 2016 #29
One of my favorite songs of all time. DCBob Feb 2016 #7
He'll win the primaries because of among other things, THIS jonjon Feb 2016 #4
and none of this was known to the voters of Nevada . . . . obviously DrDan Feb 2016 #16
Apparently nobody cares. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #30
black wall? virtualobserver Feb 2016 #5
real choice of words there, no? Matariki Feb 2016 #6
He hasn't yet made any headway after months and months of trying. DCBob Feb 2016 #9
He was thirty points behind in Nevada in December virtualobserver Feb 2016 #11
I thought we were discussing the African American vote. DCBob Feb 2016 #18
the same principle applies to the AA vote virtualobserver Feb 2016 #23
How so? DCBob Feb 2016 #26
Hillary was in the low teens against Obama with AA's and she finished with more votes than he did virtualobserver Feb 2016 #33
Good grief when will you people realize this is not 2008. DCBob Feb 2016 #35
When will YOU realize that the intensity for Hillary just isn't there? virtualobserver Feb 2016 #38
Hillary is like an incumbent candidate. DCBob Feb 2016 #40
Incumbents that aren't trusted....lose. virtualobserver Feb 2016 #41
She is trusted by millions of voters.. DCBob Feb 2016 #43
keep chanting that to yourself virtualobserver Feb 2016 #44
Apparently, 68% of us disagrees with you. Rocky the Leprechaun Feb 2016 #47
Hillary madokie Feb 2016 #49
If you cannot compete for the black vote, you cannot be the Democratic nominee for president noretreatnosurrender Feb 2016 #10
That is one strong and accurate statement. DCBob Feb 2016 #21
He Doesn't Need to Take Note noretreatnosurrender Feb 2016 #50
She absolutely CRUSHED him with black voters bravenak Feb 2016 #12
Just went to jail fighting for you... hoosierlib Feb 2016 #15
He was not fighting for me bravenak Feb 2016 #17
Ah...so you are just ungrateful...gotcha... hoosierlib Feb 2016 #24
I am not an ingrate bravenak Feb 2016 #25
Seems like you are speaking for every black people out there. Rocky the Leprechaun Feb 2016 #48
. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #51
Amazing the numbers from Nevada despite Bernie's full court press to reach POC voters. DCBob Feb 2016 #20
I hear what's wrong with it but if I say so bravenak Feb 2016 #22
Yes indeed. DCBob Feb 2016 #27
It's because we are right bravenak Feb 2016 #31
Right on. DCBob Feb 2016 #34
Power to the people (Corporations are people, my friends) virtualobserver Feb 2016 #52
8 years ago, we heard about how terrible it was that jfern Feb 2016 #13
Prediction; the AAvote won't be more than 49%... hoosierlib Feb 2016 #14
It will more than enough to give Hillary a huge victory in SC and many of the Super Tues states. DCBob Feb 2016 #19
Agreed, but African Americans were 55% of the SC vote in 2008... hoosierlib Feb 2016 #36
AA vote is heavily concentrated in the South kcjohn1 Feb 2016 #28
And he has not even done THAT MUCH bravenak Feb 2016 #32
Based on what? kcjohn1 Feb 2016 #37
Exactly bravenak Feb 2016 #39
There are many states outside the south with substatial black populations. DCBob Feb 2016 #42
He didn't mention South Carolina in his concession speech yesterday KingFlorez Feb 2016 #45
Yeah, I noticed that too. DCBob Feb 2016 #46

Matariki

(18,775 posts)
8. That's a beautiful photo
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:34 PM
Feb 2016

thanks for reminding me there's something outside this horrible primary

 

jonjon

(68 posts)
4. He'll win the primaries because of among other things, THIS
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:32 PM
Feb 2016

After all, it’s difficult to trust a politician who completely fabricated a story about being fired upon by snipers. Like POLITIFACT states, “it’s hard to understand how she could err on something so significant as whether she did or didn’t dodge sniper bullets.”

71% of men and 64% of women find Clinton “not honest and trustworthy.”

74% of Independent voters find Clinton “not honest and trustworthy.”

35% of Democrats find Clinton “not honest and trustworthy.” Yes, even Democrats.

In contrast, Kathy Frankovic of YouGov.com states “Bernie Sanders is the most widely trusted presidential candidate of either party.”

http://www.salon.com/2016/02/19/hillary_clinton_just_cant_win_democrats_need_to_accept_that_only_bernie_sanders_can_defeat_the_gop/

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
5. black wall?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:32 PM
Feb 2016

I think not. Bernie has closed strong in each of the first three contests.....I'm not saying that he will win the black vote, but he will surprise to the upside.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
9. He hasn't yet made any headway after months and months of trying.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:37 PM
Feb 2016

When is this magical "surprise to upside" going to happen and why? He's running out of time.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
11. He was thirty points behind in Nevada in December
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:40 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie is shooting for the surprise to the upside on election day.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
23. the same principle applies to the AA vote
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:59 PM
Feb 2016

he has been rising there too, and he will be devoted to campaigning in SC this week.

He will close the gap.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
26. How so?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:07 PM
Feb 2016

He got 22% of the AA vote in Nevada and is polling about the same or less in most of the southern states. Those numbers are pathetic. He's been campaigning for months trying to connect with AA voters. It simply ain't happening.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
33. Hillary was in the low teens against Obama with AA's and she finished with more votes than he did
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:12 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie has a much better chance of improving far beyond her numbers.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
38. When will YOU realize that the intensity for Hillary just isn't there?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:19 PM
Feb 2016

Hillary has less of a chance this time, than in 2008.

Bernie will also exceed expectations on Super Tuesday, and you will be forced to face reality.

Bernie has been competitive in all three contests, while Hillary was blown out in NH.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
40. Hillary is like an incumbent candidate.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:25 PM
Feb 2016

You're not going to see the same level of excitement as an insurgent candidate like Bernie or Trump would generate. Doesn't matter. she will still win.. incumbents usually do.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
41. Incumbents that aren't trusted....lose.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:28 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie is now polling in the 40's as his base continues to grow....When he starts polling in the 50's panic will ensue in the Democratic establishment.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
49. Hillary
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 10:00 PM
Feb 2016

will go to her grave a bitter person
Never being able to figure it out how she just couldn't win. I feel for her but right now America needs a good person for our President and she clearly is not that good of a person.

No, Hillary will never be President of these united states and you can mark my words on that.

noretreatnosurrender

(1,890 posts)
10. If you cannot compete for the black vote, you cannot be the Democratic nominee for president
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:38 PM
Feb 2016

I agree with that statement.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
12. She absolutely CRUSHED him with black voters
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:41 PM
Feb 2016

I may have predicted this. It will continue because he has no relationship with us. We were not at the Regatta.

 
48. Seems like you are speaking for every black people out there.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:52 PM
Feb 2016

As a Bernie supporter, I'll say this, "OK"

Clinton is still finished. Bernie will surprise a lot of people in South Carolina and win by a squeaker.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
20. Amazing the numbers from Nevada despite Bernie's full court press to reach POC voters.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:54 PM
Feb 2016

Clearly something is wrong with Bernie's approach and message.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
19. It will more than enough to give Hillary a huge victory in SC and many of the Super Tues states.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:52 PM
Feb 2016

Furthermore no Democrat will be able to win a general election without a big showing from the African American voters. Hillary will get that no doubt.. Bernie we are not so sure.

 

hoosierlib

(710 posts)
36. Agreed, but African Americans were 55% of the SC vote in 2008...
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:17 PM
Feb 2016

And that was with Obama running...historic precedent / average has been around 47%...and add to it that the state has been getting whiter over the last 8 years (lots of white transplants from the MW and NE as boomers retire and Hispanics)...so I highly doubt it meets or exceeds 2008 levels (some polls are using a range of between 54% to 60%).

That being said, unless there is a major shift in the polls (which I highly doubt as older AA voters prefer HRC) over the next week, Bernie will lose by 20...

I expect that this same scenario will play out in other SEC states in the coming weeks (MS, AL, AR, GA, LA and TN)...roughly 60% to 40% victories...

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
28. AA vote is heavily concentrated in the South
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:09 PM
Feb 2016

Outside of South they make up small subset of the total population. In 08 they made up 19% of the total Dem primary and that was when there was generational candidate in Obama.

Bernie does not need to win the black vote. He just needs to win ~30%, and win both white/latino voters by ~5.

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
37. Based on what?
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:17 PM
Feb 2016

Iowa POC exit poll was 58/34 Clinton
NH POC exit poll was 50/49 Sanders
NV Black Vote 76/22

SC will be very telling b/c black voters for the first time will be substantial portion of the vote and we should enough sample to delve into the numbers.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
42. There are many states outside the south with substatial black populations.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:32 PM
Feb 2016

Rank State African-American Alone
Population (2010)[1] % African-American
1 Mississippi 1,074,200 37.30%
2 Louisiana 1,506,534 32.4%
3 Georgia 3,150,435 31.4%
4 Maryland 1,798,593 30.1%
5 South Carolina 1,290,684 28.48%
6 Alabama 1,251,311 26.38%
7 North Carolina 2,048,628 21.60%
8 Delaware 191,814 20.95%
9 Virginia 1,551,399 19.91%
10 Tennessee 1,055,689 16.78%
11 Florida 2,999,862 15.91%
12 Arkansas 449,895 15.76%
13 New York 3,073,800 15.18%
14 Illinois 1,866,414 14.88%
15 New Jersey 1,204,826 14.46%
16 Michigan 1,400,362 14.24%
17 Ohio 1,407,681 12.04%
18 Texas 2,979,598 11.91%
19 Missouri 704,043 11.49%
20 Pennsylvania 1,377,689 10.79%
21 Connecticut 362,296 10.34%
22 Indiana 591,397 9.07%
23 Nevada 255,633 9.0%
24 Kentucky 361,273 8.2%
25 Massachusetts 528,761 8.1%
26 Oklahoma 277,644 7.96%
27 Rhode Island 79,719 7.5%
28 California 2,299,072 6.67%
29 Kansas 167,864 6.15%
30 Wisconsin 359,148 6.07%

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
45. He didn't mention South Carolina in his concession speech yesterday
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:43 PM
Feb 2016

He only talked about Super Tuesday, so I'm guessing that he isn't expecting good results in South Carolina.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Bernie's South Carolina p...