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roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 11:27 PM Feb 2016

Nevada may be HRC's last causcus victory-Nate Silver

I don't know if this has been posted but its very very interesting:

http://www.bustle.com/articles/143154-bernie-sanders-nevada-caucus-loss-wont-matter-if-you-believe-nate-silvers-huge-prediction

Hillary Clinton was named the winner of the Nevada Democratic caucuses on Saturday with more than 78 percent of precincts reporting. But her First-in-the-West win might very well be the last caucus victory her campaign will see in the States, according to Nate Silver's respected analysis website FiveThirtyEight, which claimed it was possible Sen. Bernie Sanders could win every state caucus held after Nevada.

Despite votes still rolling in, Clinton was named the projected winner of Nevada's Democratic caucuses, holding 52.1 percent of the vote to Sanders' 47.8 percent, with 79 percent of precincts reporting. Shortly after Clinton was named the projected winner, analyst and Fivethirtyeight editor in chief Nate Silver claimed Sanders' loss in Nevada just might actually be the beginning of a big winning streak regarding the remaining caucuses.

According to Silver, Sanders could quite possibly come out the victor in caucuses slated to be held in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington, and Wyoming despite losing both the Iowa and Nevada caucuses. So, why the potential for success given his history of caucus defeat?

Polling data shows Sanders fares better in white and liberal states and all but one of the remaining states set to hold caucuses this year have predominantly white populations, according to Silver. Further contributing to Sanders' staying power is the fact Clinton claimed only narrow victories in both Iowa and Nevada.


Impressions are everything and if she can't win about ten states coming up she's right back in the can where she was before. Go, Bernie!

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Nevada may be HRC's last causcus victory-Nate Silver (Original Post) roguevalley Feb 2016 OP
Yes Rosa Luxemburg Feb 2016 #1
Probably correct. However... brooklynite Feb 2016 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author stopbush Feb 2016 #3
for now. SC isn't the only state with a roguevalley Feb 2016 #8
K&R Paka Feb 2016 #4
but the bernie "crowd" wants to get rid of caucuses as undemocratic lol nt msongs Feb 2016 #5
Yep, the system is stupid AgingAmerican Feb 2016 #6
Yes, they are highly undemocratic nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #9
I think Nate may be correct but i also think it won't matter. Jitter65 Feb 2016 #7
Why would that make a difference? Do you think the Rs that jwirr Feb 2016 #13
Wonder if Hillary's stance on weed will tank her in Alaska, Colorado and Washington. SMC22307 Feb 2016 #10
It could happen but all caucuses = 10% of the total number of delegates. nt kstewart33 Feb 2016 #11
K & R !!! WillyT Feb 2016 #12

brooklynite

(94,596 posts)
2. Probably correct. However...
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 11:59 PM
Feb 2016

...unlike 2008 when the Clinton campaign basically ignored Caucus States, they'll compete in each and take a share of the delegates.

Response to roguevalley (Original post)

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
8. for now. SC isn't the only state with a
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 02:33 AM
Feb 2016

minority population and to believe that all communities everywhere support Clinton would be a fallacy I believe. We shall see. He will compete hard in every state.

 

Jitter65

(3,089 posts)
7. I think Nate may be correct but i also think it won't matter.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 01:43 AM
Feb 2016

Does anyone know which states are open primaries and which are closed?

SMC22307

(8,090 posts)
10. Wonder if Hillary's stance on weed will tank her in Alaska, Colorado and Washington.
Tue Feb 23, 2016, 12:17 AM
Feb 2016

Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wyoming are rural with lots of hunters -- that could hurt her as well. A couple of those states have more men than women, which might factor in as well.

I'm thoroughly enjoy this race.

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