Republican primary is a 1980 rerun. What if Trump plays the Reagan role? What if they cheat Trump?

Under either scenario, Sanders is our better choice.

The 1980 Republican primary had Republican establishment candidates such as senate minority leader Howard Baker, senator Bob Dole, CIA director/former RNC chair George H. W. Bush, and well funded ex-governor of Texas John Connally, and they lost to oddball former actor Ronald Reagan who won with a message that appealed to blue collar workers in both parties who felt like the system was rigged against them.

In 2016, Trump is playing Reagan's role in a rerun of 1980.

If Trump gets the nomination, his change message is not as strong as Sanders' hopeful change platform, but Trump's change message beats Hillary's status quo message. The system is broken, and voters in both parties and independents all want change. If Trump offers change and Clinton offers status quo, she loses. If Trump and Sanders both offer change, Sanders' change is a better model that speaks more to the voters and their aspirations so it is unsurprising that Sanders beats Trump most convincingly in head-to-head polls.

If Trump is robbed of the nomination by the Republican establishment, his disaffected supporters will gravitate as much to Sanders as to Rubio. Sanders will capture the Reagan Democrats who might be attracted to Trump's promise of change (along with blue collar Republicans who want change). Clinton holds zero appeal to change voters, and she cannot capitalize on the opportunity to win over blue collar Republicans storming out of the Republican party after the party cheats Trump out of the nomination at a brokered convention.