2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders had no more trouble with Nevada's minority voters than Obama had in 2008!
In fact. Sanders did better overall in Nevada's 2016 caucus than Obama did in Nevada's 2006 caucus! In terms of county delegates awarded, Clinton beat Obama by 5.7% in 2008. In terms of county delegates awarded, Clinton beat Sanders by 5.3% in 2016.
On a county by county basis for Nevada's 5 biggest counties by apportioned delegates (number of 2016 delegates apportioned & not yet awarded):
Clinton won Clark County delegates by 10% in both the 2008 and 2016 caucuses (8,816 delegates, 114 TBD).
Clinton lost Washoe County delegates by 9% in both the 2008 and 2016 caucuses (1,963 delegates, 55 TBD).
Clinton lost Carson City County delegates by 7% in 2008 & by lost 2% in 2016 (170 delegates, 8 TBD).
Clinton won Lyon County delegates by 5% in 2008 & lost by 5% in 2016 (168 delegates, all awarded).
Clinton won Nye County delegates by 18% in both the 2008 and 2016 caucuses (165 delegates, 5 TBD).
So among Nevada's 5 biggest counties by apportioned delegates, the two biggest and two of the next three biggest had basically the exact same Clinton vs. Sanders voting split in 2016 as they had Clinton vs. Obama in 2008. Clinton did 5% better in one of these remaining counties and 10% worse in the other.
In only 5 counties were the results any different in terms of Clinton's 2008 victories/losses vs. her 2016 victories/losses:
Clinton won Lyon County delegates by 5% in the 2008 caucus and lost by 5% in the 2016 caucus.
Clinton won Lander County delegates by 15% in the 2008 caucus and lost by 41% in the 2016 caucus.
Clinton lost Churchill County delegates by 4% in the 2008 caucus and tied Sanders in the 2016 caucus.
Clinton lost White Pine County delegates by 4% in the 2008 caucus and won by 1% in the 2016 caucus.
Clinton lost Douglas County delegates by 7% in the 2008 caucus and won by 8% in the 2016 caucus.
So two 2008 Clinton counties went to Sanders, two 2008 Obama counties went to Clinton, and one 2008 Obama county ended in a tie. All the other counties Obama won in 2008 were won by Sanders in 2016.
Only in Douglas County (which is 90% white) did Clinton do significantly better in 2016 than she did in 2008. And the explanation for that is predictable.
By 11 a.m. there were several hundred people in line, and it took 90 minutes to get everyone checked in. Registering new Democrats at the door added to the wait time. Im in favor of a primary, said Mary McGee. I dont like the system, but I came.
Many participants reminisced on the previous caucus eight years ago, and said that it was planned better the last time. The Democratic Party offered pre-registration, but once voters got to the middle school they still had to wait in line and text in a number. The registration process was awkward, said Ed Ferranto. It was more organized the last time.
Another thing that bothered people about having a caucus instead of a primary was votes get rounded up or down, not every vote counts. People are excluded, what about the people who couldnt come out today, said Ferranto. Every vote should count. ...
There were a lot of first-time caucus participants, many of whom were unclear what exactly they were supposed to do. It sounded like fun and we wanted to vote, said Donna Lyke. It was just unclear when it was supposed to start.
JI7
(89,252 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Entrance polling showed an increase in Latino voter share from 2008, from 15 percent to 19 percent. The share of black voters also increased from 10 percent to 13 percent.
DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)I saw a number floating around the other day that said Bernie won 55% of Obama voters from 2008, and 45% of Hillary voters from 2008. The split is there, but it's not the exact same split in terms of who goes where.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)But he is no where near as loved as Obama abd we have no reason to drop Hillary for Bernie. Obama had CHARISMA!! Vigor!!! A connection to the community!!!