Looking at poll trends, 2008 vs 2016, These next two weeks are make or break for Sanders
In 2008, Obama began his climb above Clinton in the national polls in mid to late February, by late in the month averaging a 10-point lead over Clinton (averaging CBS, USA Today, Gallup, and Pew polls). In early February it was dead heat and in late January the same polls averaged a 5 point advantage for Clinton. December polls averaged Clinton up by 18 points.
Once the race heated up in March, Clinton closed the gap of Obama's late-February lead, honing her attacks on him (which of course did so much to prepare him for the fall campaign). But Obama stayed 4-7 points ahead of Clinton from March through the beginning of June, when she finally conceded. It was really, really close. DU was of course an on-line Thunderdome of personal vitriol throughout the whole business.
Okay, jump to now. Sanders has surged just like Obama. Strangely, there seem to be fewer polls being conducted this time around. Taking an average of four polls (NBC-WSJ, CBS, USA Today, & Quinnipiac). But in December he was 24 points behind; in early January 16 points behind, and in early to mid February polls about 3 points behind.
In effect, Sanders-16 seems to be producing comparable polling results compared to Obama-08, but on a timeline about half a month behind Obama's performance. Again, after Obama peaked, Clinton honed her attacks and was able to drive his numbers down. The beginning of March is when her attacks resonated and closed the lead. No hate for her from this yellow dog... this is exactly what a primary opponent is supposed to do. You don't box the champ before taking on a sparring partner.
But for Sanders, he still needs to have that moment in the sun when he finally takes the lead in the polls. This is the time for him to do so. Unfortunately, we're now moving into the Southern primaries (SC next weekend; then on March 1st --AL, Ark, TX, GA, OK, TN, VA, plus a few token non-Southern states --Mass, Alaska, Minn, CO). This is worst possible timing for Sanders. It's gonna be 2 weeks of bad news before the voting moves into his stronger areas in the midwest, northeast, and Great Lakes.
Sanders supporters, this is THE time to volunteer at a local phone bank and call for Bernie.
(sources: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm , http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16dem.htm , and http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/ )
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