Despite all the blackouts and phoney accusations they are tied and we're only three states in. Not good enough Hillary.

And her supporters fail to see it

We will all start to hear the "we all can work together" crap that hasn't worked for the 99% in 35 years.

she still wants your burned nuts to support her. She is smart enough to know she will NEVER get a repug vote, except maybe the delusional anti-trump types (but those will be few by election day). So she will tend the base like tomatoes in a garden.

You can't have it both ways. Most f you have dinged her for being calculating. If she is, she won't abandon the positions she has taken. That doesn't mean she won't sound sane and reasonable to indies. Of course, against trump/rubio/cruz, that isn't very hard.

The republicans will fall in line once they have a nom. The red indies will fall in line once they have a candidate.

Trumps path to the wh runs through the bubba patches of the swing states. If he can pick up FL, NC, OH, and PA, he has the prize. Nobody is going to tell me that isn't bubba country.

To win, either H or B needs to counter that. Staying in the corner isn't going to work. Even B would need to come to the center on some issues. And even he knows that.

Politics ain't pretty. Losing will suck, either in the primary or general. Both candidates know that. Both will keep the base and grow to the center. Both will work to get new voters out and keep existing voters voting.

Be passionate, support whoever you want, and vote for the nominee in the fall.

Bernie WILL be IN until Convention.
And he will win.
Sorry your dreams of a phony "primary" with a unique candidate vanished....

It's probably a bigger problem for us.

I'm having trouble seeing her motivating a large turnout beyond what we are seeing now...

turn out for the primaries being down not a huge deal yet. It's only a problem for Democrats if the pattern continues into the GE.

primary is seen as less important . imo

First, people want to look harder to find the turnout issue than is necessary.

It is a repeat of 99. The country is coming of a democratic president who has done a pretty good job, but because republicans have thrown an 8 year hissy fit throwing shit like deranged lunatics, the country "feels" things are worse than they are, not saying they great. But, what the republicans do is intentional. They know they can wear this country down with this shit, and that they frame it was "they are all the same!"

So, the sitting POTUS, even though he has done a good job and in this case has taken more shit than any person in human history, is seen as the problem as much if not more than republican ass hatery.

SO ... this country, in all its wonderful obliviousness, is willing to hand POTUS to republicans just to shut them the fuck up IF they run a candidate who spouts some happy happy bullshit like Reagen (morning in america) and Bush II (compasionate conservatism). See, Marco Rubio with his Reagen rip off house on the hill bullshit.

This is the general historical trend, the party in power in the white house ALWAYS suffers in turn out vs the out of party power for the most part. It isn't some random event that the largest democratic turnout in the last quarter century were when dipshit was POTUS (06 & 08).

2) yes, turnout will be a bigger issue for Hillary.

3) But, there is this thing that lies between now and the general election called a primary, and for all the puffy bravado about the general with Bernie, he still is an underdog to get the nomination.

4) Unfortunately, Bernie supports are burning every boat and bridge they possibly can. Hill had issues as a general election candidate, but the Bernistas have ginned themselves up into the republican Hillary is Satan mindset enough it is going to be hard for them to come behind her if she wins the nomination.

5) As the same time, their hillary derangement is so full on tea party hate filled, they talk down and attack Hillary supporters so much they are basically telling them to screw off in the general.

6) It is starting to get to the point that it will be Sanders or bust.

We have 3% unemployment and 19% poverty. People are working two jobs and still can't afford to buy health insurance. People are legitimately hurting and Obamacare has added pressure. Meanwhile they keep hearing how great things are. The want things to be just a little easier and they want to feel like their kids have a fighting chance. They see none with the candidate who not only has no interest in trying, she dismisses their experience by saying it is a pipe dream for them to want more.
No, they are not going to vote for more of the same when they are told not to bother to imagine their kids have a shot at something better.

Things are better today than they were the day BHO took over, by a far sight.

I agree on your larger economic points, but this is how "feel" trumps reason.

I am voting Bernie, but sorry, it won't change all that much, if at all with him as POTUS, either.

They'll call bernie "Socialist", but theres not a lot of other negatives to say. Hillary has a notebook full of negatives

Surprise, surprise

There's nothing bad about Bernie being in this race.

It's about an analysis of what is likely to happen. Bernie was (and for sake of argument, let's say IS) close to breaking out. But in order to do so, he needs to do well on Super Tuesday. The simply fact is that if he can't do well on Super Tuesday, then his path to the nomination does not look very credible. As the article says, it's just election math. If Sanders had won Nevada (even by a squeaker), it could be argued that he had sufficiently eaten into Clinton's base to over-perform on Super Tuesday.... acquiring enough delegates, if not necessarily winning, to challenge Clinton once the race turns to more Bernie-friendly states. There are a number of models showing how well Bernie need to do, delegate-wise, to be on-track for the nomination. Some of these models consider super-delegates, some don't. But even the models NOT considering super-delegates are showing Bernie behind the power curve. Through super-delegates into the mix and the picture is even worse.

TL,DR : If SC and Super Tuesday go as currently expected, what exactly is Bernie's path to the nomination? I mean short of a hand-wavy "And here a miracle happens" kind of event, how does it work?

I wouldn't rule him out yet. Bernie did much better than I thought he would, so I am out of the prediction game for this primary. I thought Bernie would top out at 30% nationally, and I was clearly wrong there!

The harder she tries to make herself sound like a liberal, the more backtracking she will have to do later. The sooner that ends for them, the better.

I hate it when people shoot the messenger. Looking down the road for potholes is not treason.

It does equal that person's "wants", however.

No, an analysis is not about opinion. It's about having a deeper understanding of facts.

Seriously, quit shooting the messengers.

It is not infallible.

that it goes without saying that Hillary is not driving up turnout either.

Just wishful thinking.

Which is different than a "bern out" date or an "expiration date."

Hillary has all the money and backing of the DC establishment. Funny, wasn't that the case in 2008?

Both have served as Senators and both have run against Hillary. Obama gave a great key note speech at the 2004 DNC Convention, he got the attention of many Americans. Obama presented an agenda which was reasonable, be has been a good president.

"we the people" will be losing ground for another 4/8 years?

which isn't until late April.

I really wanted Bernie to stick around no matter what because I would love to vote FOR someone rather than against someone else.

Bernie is the first politician in my lifetime who matches my voice. He is my voice. Even if it's hopeless I would love to have the opportunity to push that button with his name on it and be heard.

Hang in there Bernie--it matters to a lot of us.

math" - oh my, we are not all following orders, y'all!

Yeah, we should not care about issues like war, fracking, Third Way evisceration of social programs, increased H-1B visas or stuff like that, right?

Those things are things that Hillary is in favor of. Things I believe she will do to us. Not getting on that bandwagon. Fuck that.

Hills is inevitable, you know...

why bother voting at all?

And who really cares. Hillary does not have this in the bag. This whole article is full of B.S.
I got news for this chick Goldie .............you are dead wrong. Just another puff piece bought and paid for by the Clinton Machine.

the open hostility to the fact that people have had it up to their eyeballs with the system that operates with such convoluted math!

MAKE THE SYSTEM DEMOCRATIC ALREADY!!!

everyone votes, each vote is counted.

simple system, simple math.

why is this so hard?

oh yeah; THE SYSTEM IS BROKEN!!

most vote totals within 5%

way too early to talk about either candidate leaving. Maybe after Super Tuesday, but probably not even then.

he is in till philly, and if you think they are going to drive him out so they can plug in an establishement stooge when hillary has to step down, you can

BITE ME!!

(comment directed to nate not the op)


carry on....

Hillary supporters declaring a victory and the end for Obama then in February.....My god Hillary has won one primary with questionable results...and practices in various Precincts..She tied Sanders in Iowa and DWS refused an audit of the rest of the 1680 Precincts because she feared what the official results might show and she got got trounced in NH..
(Scroll down the page and winning candidate is highlighted in Blue)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

in many of the Super Tuesday states because she expected this to be over by now and she is not well funded for all of them
So it will be interesting

Even The Democrats in Congress (The Republicrats) are wondering how she will handle the Super Tuesday States and after.

Bern has set back the Progressive cause 50 years. We picked the wrong person to carry our banner!

And no, he hasn't set any cause back. If he wasn't running, there would be no "cause" to set back.

"walking the cause", vs being duplicitous.

I'm sick to death of the damage inflicted by the right and 3rd-way "Dems".

A person like MOM would have been way better IMO.

I guess he didn't past the test.

This is the date that the democrats lose to a narcissistic, arrogant POS republican who because at the end of the primary season one campaign did not win, and the followers refuse to put party first. This allows this new GOP president to select the new supreme court justice, or 2, or 3 and this allows the ACA to go under and this allows immigration to fail, and this allows the legal marriage of gays to be reversed, and this allows the seniors and the poor to stay poor and not have a chance. etc, etc, etc.

Party must come first. We as democrats must do everything e=we can to elect a democratic president and democratically controlled congress. DU...this must be your goal...to spread this message that party MUST come 1st.

Everything I wrote is accurate, and will happen if we do not vote in a democrat as president and senate. Mark my work CobaltBlue. You are speaking like a republican.

1. The congress has attempted to vote ACA out over 50 times. The veto pen of a democrat as president has saved it. A republican president will not.
2. If a democratic controlled senate is not in the cards this election, and McConnell has his way, and a GOP is president, the progressive candidate for the court is not in the scene. The court will again and continue to be conservative.... and 2-3 justices in the next 4 years may be in doubt for health reasons....
3. The middle class will suffer again as we did under Bush. The rich will get breaks, and S.S. may go private.
etc.....

say what you wish.....mark my words, it happened in 2000..... it can happen in 2016

Anyone can vote anyway they wish. I would never tell anyone HOW to vote. I can and will tell them WHO to vote for. They have their own minds and hearts. I can not change what they feel.

facts are fact, truth is truth....

what I have stated are facts..... tell me what I wrote is not a fact

that the GOP has voted to repeal over and over. The fact is Obama saved by veto. ALL GOP candidates have said they will appeal Obamacare the first thing. WITH A GOP CONTROLLED HOUSE AND SENATE.... they will succeed.

The Senate has control over the supreme court nomination. All the candidates have stated they should replace Scalia with a conservative justice. Even though there is a 60 vote to overide a filibuster, the "atomic" option is available, with a 51 vote majority. GOP controlled Senate has 54 senators.... this depends on McConnell's arrogance or not. There are some justices that are not in good health. This is NOT a fact, but the possibility of other justices needing replacement is very high....

I know candidates lie, most all of them do. Reality is reality.

I never said they couldn't. I did say party MUST come first. I believe both Sanders and Clinton would agree. If anyone on this forum wishes to vote GOP, then they need be asked to leave and go the a right wing forum.

Last edited Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:27 PM - Edit history (1)

After Hillary's win in Nevada, the momentum has shifted from Hillary needing to stop Bernie, to Bernie needing to stop Hillary.

You could feel it even on this board...

To convince everyone why they should support hillary in the GE.

Do any of them actually plan on doing that, or will they be content to just shout "President Trump!" or "President Rubio!" over and over again?

Hoodwinked.
Bamboozled.
Okey-doke.

Who was he talking about?

Hint: It wasn't Bernie Sanders.

You were warned 8 years ago.

I blame the failures on the institutionalized racism of the Republican Congress. And yes, the ACA is the "achievement" of the congress - no government option, high cost and all.

ended this weekend. He did not expand the electorate the way he needed. Turnout has actually been down across the board compared to 2008. This proves the ridiculous notion that Sanders was like Obama in 2008 to be false.

The Sanders campaign has not done well with AA voters. And their strength with Hispanic voters is debatable. Inspiring young people in college towns is not enough to get to the White House. It's not even enough to get the nomination. Sanders coalition is not big enough. And his supporters are NOT flocking to the polls in great numbers.

A new poll out of Massachusetts shows Bernie is tied with Clinton in the state. Yes, even in a state loaded with White Liberals and the home of Elizabeth Warren is not enough to guarantee a Sanders victory.

Sanders has run a great campaign. He got further than almost anyone thought he would. He has moved Clinton and the party left. And that is a good thing. But by the end of March, he will be a protest candidate. Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.

into bed with Kissinger.





Wait, my mistake. She was there already.

I think you have laid out all the facts in this race, thanks.

It's February. We're 3 contests in, the two of them are tied in delegates (and Bernie appears to be ahead in popular vote). I agree that the math still favors Hillary, but I'd hardly call this late in the campaign, and she's certainly not blowing him out. Basically she's got a virtual tie, a decisive loss, and a win that was much narrower than had been expected a month earlier. All the articles that are saying it's late, it's decided, come off merely as attempts to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

bank it.

They'll just insult Bernie supporter's racist, commie, libertarian, unicorn fart huffing asses into line. At least that's been the winning strategy so far.

Now that's a cold ass shot of reality for Bernie fans!

YEAH buddy!

Nevada changed everything about these primaries and SC and Super Tuesday is going to seal the deal for Hillary!

Bernie fans have until March 1st to try to stop the inevitable primary victory of Hillary Clinton!

Yall better get busy!

He`s such a good and decent man.

Bernie is one of the most decent men to for run president in my lifetime, and that's saying something, because before Bernie ran, if you were to ask me that question, Obama would be first to come to mind.