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SecularMotion

(7,981 posts)
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:06 AM Feb 2016

The 'Revolution' Fizzles; Hillary on the Road to the Nomination and the Presidency

The dream that in my lifetime there will be an incredibly prepared, brilliant and passionate woman as President of the United States of America is alive and well. Along with her win in Nevada Hillary Clinton has a big lead in delegates as the democratic primary heads south. Looks like the Sanders "revolution" never got off the ground as those coming to his rallies aren't coming out to vote. That is not to say Sanders ideas and his focus on income equality isn't good. In the end it will be good for Hillary and the progressive movement that he is in the race and forcing a healthy debate on the issues.

Delegate count: Clinton has a huge lead in delegates. In Iowa which Clinton won she got 23 elected delegates and support from 7 super-delegates for 30 to Sanders 21 elected delegates. In New Hampshire even though Sanders won big Clinton got 9 elected delegates and support from 6 superdelegates for a total of 15 to Sanders 15 elected delegates and no superdelegates. According to NPR as of February 18th Clinton has an overwhelming lead in superdelegates. Of the 712 Democratic superdelegates, 449 currently support Clinton and only 19 support Sanders. Clinton needs 2,383 delegates to win the nomination and as of February 21st after her win in Nevada she has 502 to Sanders 70. While superdelegates can change their mind a few more wins for Clinton will solidify their support. After all they are mostly elected officials who know the views of their total constituencies not just those voting in a primary.

South Carolina: Next Saturday Democrats in South Carolina make their choice for the Party's nominee. There are 59 delegates up for grabs in South Carolina and they are proportionally awarded. The most recent NBC/Marist/WSJ poll has Hillary up by 28%. A big part of that margin is from Hillary's strong support from the African American community. Support she has earned over the years and stands her in good stead throughout the South as she then heads into Super Tuesday on March 1st.

Super Tuesday: Voting takes place in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. American Samoa and Americans Abroad also vote that day. 1034 delegates are up for grabs; 878 elected and those states collectively have 156 superdelegates. Currently the polling in those states has Clinton up by over twenty points in six of them and over fifteen in two others. Sanders will win Vermont and is up in Massachusetts and close in Colorado. The state with the most delegates is Texas with 252 and Clinton is up over 20 points there.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-d-rosenstein/the-revolution-fizzles-hi_b_9286968.html
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morningfog

(18,115 posts)
1. They are tied in the delegate count at 51 apiece.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:22 AM
Feb 2016

The supers have not been committed and are not bound.

 

djean111

(14,255 posts)
2. And yet - I am still voting for and supporting Bernie - as is everyone I know.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:24 AM
Feb 2016

Go figure.

We are not abandoning our principles.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
3. let's hope not... the planet can't take anymore nolib/neocon crap
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:43 AM
Feb 2016

if the revolution has to wait much longer we are all fucked incl the 1%

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
6. Things aren't looking good at all ...
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:52 AM
Feb 2016

... for Bernie.

Everyone knows it. No sense in trying to deny it any longer. Fact is ... Bernie will NOT be the nominee.

Gregorian

(23,867 posts)
7. This just in: Sleepwalking Americans don't know Democracy when it hits them on head.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:40 AM
Feb 2016

Who knew half of the Democratic party was part of the problem. That's the shocker.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
8. Hill is guaranteed to lose. Horrible candidate.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:42 AM
Feb 2016

Perceived very negatively by the majority of voters

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
9. Bernie needs to over-perform significantly to get on track for the nomination.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:54 AM
Feb 2016

This link show his ROUGH targets for a shot at the nomination (targets are the right-column):

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

These targets do NOT consider super-delegates. Super delegates are likely to tip Clinton's way by a significant margin, but it Bernie does well, it's likely that she won't dominate them the way she seems to be right now.

So, right now Sanders was BEHIND his targets in Iowa and Nevada. He was even behind his targets in New Hampshire, despite the shellacking he gave Clinton there. So, so far, he's not not tracking well for the nomination. He would need to very significantly improve on his performance to get the nomination, even NOT considering super-delegates. Of course, this is based on estimates of polls and analysis of electorate, etc. If the model is off, all bets are off. But so far, the model appears to be more or less accurate.

This isn't spin. It's just math. But SC and Super Tuesday will tell us a LOT more about how things are going.

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