2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe 'Revolution' Fizzles; Hillary on the Road to the Nomination and the Presidency
Delegate count: Clinton has a huge lead in delegates. In Iowa which Clinton won she got 23 elected delegates and support from 7 super-delegates for 30 to Sanders 21 elected delegates. In New Hampshire even though Sanders won big Clinton got 9 elected delegates and support from 6 superdelegates for a total of 15 to Sanders 15 elected delegates and no superdelegates. According to NPR as of February 18th Clinton has an overwhelming lead in superdelegates. Of the 712 Democratic superdelegates, 449 currently support Clinton and only 19 support Sanders. Clinton needs 2,383 delegates to win the nomination and as of February 21st after her win in Nevada she has 502 to Sanders 70. While superdelegates can change their mind a few more wins for Clinton will solidify their support. After all they are mostly elected officials who know the views of their total constituencies not just those voting in a primary.
South Carolina: Next Saturday Democrats in South Carolina make their choice for the Party's nominee. There are 59 delegates up for grabs in South Carolina and they are proportionally awarded. The most recent NBC/Marist/WSJ poll has Hillary up by 28%. A big part of that margin is from Hillary's strong support from the African American community. Support she has earned over the years and stands her in good stead throughout the South as she then heads into Super Tuesday on March 1st.
Super Tuesday: Voting takes place in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. American Samoa and Americans Abroad also vote that day. 1034 delegates are up for grabs; 878 elected and those states collectively have 156 superdelegates. Currently the polling in those states has Clinton up by over twenty points in six of them and over fifteen in two others. Sanders will win Vermont and is up in Massachusetts and close in Colorado. The state with the most delegates is Texas with 252 and Clinton is up over 20 points there.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-d-rosenstein/the-revolution-fizzles-hi_b_9286968.html
morningfog
(18,115 posts)The supers have not been committed and are not bound.
djean111
(14,255 posts)Go figure.
We are not abandoning our principles.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)if the revolution has to wait much longer we are all fucked incl the 1%
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)cuz they are just about doing everything else......
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... for Bernie.
Everyone knows it. No sense in trying to deny it any longer. Fact is ... Bernie will NOT be the nominee.
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)Who knew half of the Democratic party was part of the problem. That's the shocker.
cali
(114,904 posts)Perceived very negatively by the majority of voters
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)This link show his ROUGH targets for a shot at the nomination (targets are the right-column):
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/
These targets do NOT consider super-delegates. Super delegates are likely to tip Clinton's way by a significant margin, but it Bernie does well, it's likely that she won't dominate them the way she seems to be right now.
So, right now Sanders was BEHIND his targets in Iowa and Nevada. He was even behind his targets in New Hampshire, despite the shellacking he gave Clinton there. So, so far, he's not not tracking well for the nomination. He would need to very significantly improve on his performance to get the nomination, even NOT considering super-delegates. Of course, this is based on estimates of polls and analysis of electorate, etc. If the model is off, all bets are off. But so far, the model appears to be more or less accurate.
This isn't spin. It's just math. But SC and Super Tuesday will tell us a LOT more about how things are going.