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Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:33 PM Feb 2016

Can we stop with the "Clinton blew her lead" spin?

Many if not most of the polls cited to prove that come from fall or even summer of last year, when Bernie's name recognition was low and his ground game almost nonexistent, while Hillary had been known for decades. From there he had nowhere to go but up!

And thanks to hard work and enthusiastic supporters, he did come up instead of O'Malley, Webb, etc; the distance he's covered is indeed impressive, and I won't say otherwise. But as we've seen in the first three states, he has a ceiling -- and he'll need a lot more than name recognition and a ground game to break through it.

So while this kind of spin is good for indicating how Bernie went from Joe Nobody to Serious Contender, they are not good for indicating who will ultimately win a given state. Please keep that in mind.

35 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Can we stop with the "Clinton blew her lead" spin? (Original Post) Chichiri Feb 2016 OP
Get back to us when she stops blowing leads. virtualobserver Feb 2016 #1
... AzDar Feb 2016 #16
Umm.....No. seaotter Feb 2016 #2
thinks that make me go "HUH?" ChairmanAgnostic Feb 2016 #3
"ceiling" is a bad analogy mikehiggins Feb 2016 #4
Well, even elevators have a top floor. nt Chichiri Feb 2016 #5
And a sub basement TheFarS1de Feb 2016 #33
I assume it will stop KingFlorez Feb 2016 #6
Are you advocating the violent suppression of dissension to the Establishment's preselected one? Half-Century Man Feb 2016 #31
You mean a ceiling in new Hampshire the only truly primary state? Armstead Feb 2016 #7
Hillary supporters on this site sure thought those polls were relevant Bjorn Against Feb 2016 #8
I only came back to DU a few weeks ago, so... Chichiri Feb 2016 #22
Ok. nc4bo Feb 2016 #9
i guess for that she should resign MariaThinks Feb 2016 #29
Bizzaro world thinking strikes again. Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #10
what's unfair is that in a few weeks bernie would have been higher than hillary MariaThinks Feb 2016 #30
You guys went on andon about how high her polls were cali Feb 2016 #11
Damn straight! ^^^^^^^^ berni_mccoy Feb 2016 #12
They still are. Only now it is the future polls. morningfog Feb 2016 #18
BEST answer yet! MuseRider Feb 2016 #25
Nope. Those leads were shoved into our faces as the reason we HAD to support her. djean111 Feb 2016 #13
There are no facts, only interpretations. Friedrich Nietzsche Tierra_y_Libertad Feb 2016 #14
How about "no". Does "no" work for you? lumberjack_jeff Feb 2016 #15
Not sure what facts you're alluding to, but sure, no works for me. Chichiri Feb 2016 #20
She lost a huge lead. Did she blow it or did Sanders earn it? YMMV, but my view is the latter. n/t lumberjack_jeff Feb 2016 #23
Of course Sanders earned it. See OP. nt Chichiri Feb 2016 #27
No. She had a resounding lead in all states (except VT) as late as Nov/Dec 2015, morningfog Feb 2016 #17
Hillary's biggest lead was when she announced her candidacy. panader0 Feb 2016 #19
That "spin" is missed by most of MSM. Review the history of polls of states... Eleanors38 Feb 2016 #21
I meant the spin here in DU. Chichiri Feb 2016 #24
Why? Matariki Feb 2016 #26
Rooftop view baby! You got it! n/t ebayfool Feb 2016 #34
she underperformed in Iowa and New Hampshire and almost met (did not meet or exceed) Vote2016 Feb 2016 #28
First three states? In NH, he topped 60%. If that's his ceiling, I'll take it. thesquanderer Feb 2016 #32
Bernie plateaued months ago RobertEarl Feb 2016 #35

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
6. I assume it will stop
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:37 PM
Feb 2016

When Sanders is dragged off the convention floor for trying to charge Clinton during her acceptance speech.

Half-Century Man

(5,279 posts)
31. Are you advocating the violent suppression of dissension to the Establishment's preselected one?
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:30 PM
Feb 2016

I ask, smiling at your choice of words.

What caused you to think that Bernie Sanders would disrupt a fairly won primary? Or, are you predisposed that if Ms. Clinton won, she would have had to have cheated?

Bjorn Against

(12,041 posts)
8. Hillary supporters on this site sure thought those polls were relevant
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:38 PM
Feb 2016

Several of them spent most the summer an fall on this site posting polls that showed huge leads for Hillary, they constantly told us those polls proved that Bernie did not have a chance. Now all of a sudden those polls are irrelevant? I don't think so.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
22. I only came back to DU a few weeks ago, so...
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:55 PM
Feb 2016

...if Hillary supporters were indeed claiming victory or likely victory at that point, it was premature. These things shouldn't be called until Iowa at the earliest.

nc4bo

(17,651 posts)
9. Ok.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:39 PM
Feb 2016

She blew a whole bunch of campaign dough and stomp time for single digit hold-onto-your-pants wins.

Better?

MariaThinks

(2,495 posts)
29. i guess for that she should resign
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:15 PM
Feb 2016

in fact let's pick a winner based on how much support they are able to grow.

better yet, the nomination should be based on new Hampshire. the other caucuses are too easily influenced for corrupted. And they don't support Bernie - so something is wrong. Hillary did something.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
10. Bizzaro world thinking strikes again.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:40 PM
Feb 2016

You admit she had that lead.

You admit that lead is now gone.

Somehow, you are unable to grasp that she "blew that lead".


Stating facts isn't spinning. Claiming that she somehow didn't blow a lead which she used to have, but now doesn't, is the an excellent example of spinning.

Edit to add:





MuseRider

(34,111 posts)
25. BEST answer yet!
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:57 PM
Feb 2016


Please don't talk about it, it makes us feel bad. We only feel good when you are the one's getting squashed so please don't do to us what we did to you, it isn't fair.
 

djean111

(14,255 posts)
13. Nope. Those leads were shoved into our faces as the reason we HAD to support her.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:43 PM
Feb 2016

My advice would be to just not click on stuff you don't like!

 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
15. How about "no". Does "no" work for you?
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:45 PM
Feb 2016

I feel bad about your fact aversion, but... no, wait - I don't.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
20. Not sure what facts you're alluding to, but sure, no works for me.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:54 PM
Feb 2016

No skin off my back. Just trying to help everyone out.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
17. No. She had a resounding lead in all states (except VT) as late as Nov/Dec 2015,
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:50 PM
Feb 2016

including nationally.

She lost that margin of a lead in IA, she lost her lead in NH and was absolutely plummeted there. She lost the lead that size in NV but hung on enough to win. Nationally, they are tied.

It is not spin, she lost the leads because Bernie is surging and still is. He is narrowing the gap in SC, but will not come close to erasing the lead there. A single digit loss for Bernie would be great. 10-15 point loss would still signal he has narrowed it there some. If he loses by 15-20+, he will have not cut into her lead there.

Super Tuesday will reset the narrative.

panader0

(25,816 posts)
19. Hillary's biggest lead was when she announced her candidacy.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:51 PM
Feb 2016

It's been downHill ever since, while Bernie is tracking steadily upwards.

 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
21. That "spin" is missed by most of MSM. Review the history of polls of states...
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:54 PM
Feb 2016

which have voted/caucused or are about to. The remarkable thing is how MSM continues to mumble about Hillary maintaining a big lead, but no mention of how these leads have shrunk significantly over the last 6 months. Maybe the "spin" is whirled in DU, but it ain't coming from most of the media.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
24. I meant the spin here in DU.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:57 PM
Feb 2016

And, from what I've heard, from Bernie's campaign manager. I could be wrong about that one.

 

Vote2016

(1,198 posts)
28. she underperformed in Iowa and New Hampshire and almost met (did not meet or exceed)
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:02 PM
Feb 2016

her 2008 performance in Nevada.

She'll do fine in the Republican South, but when the race turns back away from Dixie, Sanders will catch up.

thesquanderer

(11,990 posts)
32. First three states? In NH, he topped 60%. If that's his ceiling, I'll take it.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:32 PM
Feb 2016

re: "as we've seen in the first three states, he has a ceiling" -- by the same metric, Hillary's would appear to be 52.6

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
35. Bernie plateaued months ago
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:53 PM
Feb 2016

I read it right here on DU that Bernie's numbers had plateaued back in November.

Damn!!! Now I don't know who to believe!!

I get it now, and understand why so many of you are pulling your hair out,,,,,,

Bernie stole Hillary's insurmountable lead!!

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