2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCan we stop with the "Clinton blew her lead" spin?
Many if not most of the polls cited to prove that come from fall or even summer of last year, when Bernie's name recognition was low and his ground game almost nonexistent, while Hillary had been known for decades. From there he had nowhere to go but up!
And thanks to hard work and enthusiastic supporters, he did come up instead of O'Malley, Webb, etc; the distance he's covered is indeed impressive, and I won't say otherwise. But as we've seen in the first three states, he has a ceiling -- and he'll need a lot more than name recognition and a ground game to break through it.
So while this kind of spin is good for indicating how Bernie went from Joe Nobody to Serious Contender, they are not good for indicating who will ultimately win a given state. Please keep that in mind.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)seaotter
(576 posts)Her inability to move her numbers anywhere but down IS an issue.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)and things.
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)think of it as more of an elevator.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)TheFarS1de
(1,017 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)When Sanders is dragged off the convention floor for trying to charge Clinton during her acceptance speech.
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)I ask, smiling at your choice of words.
What caused you to think that Bernie Sanders would disrupt a fairly won primary? Or, are you predisposed that if Ms. Clinton won, she would have had to have cheated?
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Bjorn Against
(12,041 posts)Several of them spent most the summer an fall on this site posting polls that showed huge leads for Hillary, they constantly told us those polls proved that Bernie did not have a chance. Now all of a sudden those polls are irrelevant? I don't think so.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)...if Hillary supporters were indeed claiming victory or likely victory at that point, it was premature. These things shouldn't be called until Iowa at the earliest.
She blew a whole bunch of campaign dough and stomp time for single digit hold-onto-your-pants wins.
Better?
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)in fact let's pick a winner based on how much support they are able to grow.
better yet, the nomination should be based on new Hampshire. the other caucuses are too easily influenced for corrupted. And they don't support Bernie - so something is wrong. Hillary did something.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)You admit she had that lead.
You admit that lead is now gone.
Somehow, you are unable to grasp that she "blew that lead".
Stating facts isn't spinning. Claiming that she somehow didn't blow a lead which she used to have, but now doesn't, is the an excellent example of spinning.
Edit to add:
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)if the trend continued.
cali
(114,904 posts)So fuck no.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)MuseRider
(34,111 posts)Please don't talk about it, it makes us feel bad. We only feel good when you are the one's getting squashed so please don't do to us what we did to you, it isn't fair.
djean111
(14,255 posts)My advice would be to just not click on stuff you don't like!
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)I feel bad about your fact aversion, but... no, wait - I don't.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)No skin off my back. Just trying to help everyone out.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)Chichiri
(4,667 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)including nationally.
She lost that margin of a lead in IA, she lost her lead in NH and was absolutely plummeted there. She lost the lead that size in NV but hung on enough to win. Nationally, they are tied.
It is not spin, she lost the leads because Bernie is surging and still is. He is narrowing the gap in SC, but will not come close to erasing the lead there. A single digit loss for Bernie would be great. 10-15 point loss would still signal he has narrowed it there some. If he loses by 15-20+, he will have not cut into her lead there.
Super Tuesday will reset the narrative.
panader0
(25,816 posts)It's been downHill ever since, while Bernie is tracking steadily upwards.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)which have voted/caucused or are about to. The remarkable thing is how MSM continues to mumble about Hillary maintaining a big lead, but no mention of how these leads have shrunk significantly over the last 6 months. Maybe the "spin" is whirled in DU, but it ain't coming from most of the media.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)And, from what I've heard, from Bernie's campaign manager. I could be wrong about that one.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)It's the truth.
And ps - 'ceiling' in this case will be the Presidency. Rooftop view baby!
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)Vote2016
(1,198 posts)her 2008 performance in Nevada.
She'll do fine in the Republican South, but when the race turns back away from Dixie, Sanders will catch up.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)re: "as we've seen in the first three states, he has a ceiling" -- by the same metric, Hillary's would appear to be 52.6
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)I read it right here on DU that Bernie's numbers had plateaued back in November.
Damn!!! Now I don't know who to believe!!
I get it now, and understand why so many of you are pulling your hair out,,,,,,
Bernie stole Hillary's insurmountable lead!!