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Eric J in MN

(35,619 posts)
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 07:41 PM Feb 2016

William C. Velásquez Institute: Bernie Sanders won the Latino vote in Nevada


WCVI concludes that the survey results are statistically consistent with the margin of victory of Hillary Clinton on Feb 20. The main dispute among pundits and between campaigns has been the assertion that it is statistically impossible for Hillary Clinton to narrowly lose the Latino vote (45% to 53% with Latinos representing 19% of the voters) and narrowly lose Whites (47% to 49% with Whites representing 59% of the voters) and still win the election by 5.3%.

However WCVI concludes the Clinton margin of victory is adequately explained by the large margin of victory Secretary Clinton won among African American voters (77% to 23% with AA's representing 13% of the voters).

Simply put there is no relevant statistical inconsistency between Edison's Entry Poll results for Latinos, Whites, and Blacks and the overall election results. Based on this fact WCVI concludes that there is no statistical basis to question the Latino vote breakdown between Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders.

We note that some analysts have said that Secretary Clinton's victories in heavily Latino precincts proved that she won the Latino vote. However the methodology of using heavily Latino or "barrio" precincts to represent Latino voting behavior has been considered ineffective and discarded for more than 30 years.

http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Who-Won-the-Nevada-Latino-Vote-.html?soid=1114208817960&aid=TUzlNNKZYHc
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William C. Velásquez Institute: Bernie Sanders won the Latino vote in Nevada (Original Post) Eric J in MN Feb 2016 OP
does this mean they'll say that "Velásquez is NOT a Latino name!"? MisterP Feb 2016 #1
I think we'll see this going forward too. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #2
Well, that'll make a few prolific posters happy ... ebayfool Feb 2016 #3
Is there something the campaign should do which it isn't currently doing? NT Eric J in MN Feb 2016 #7
According to the aforementioned prolific posters, yes. ebayfool Feb 2016 #8
That's amazing. I would have thought all the lies and distortions Vattel Feb 2016 #4
So doesn't that prove the effect of the Black vote? ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #5
K&R amborin Feb 2016 #6

Erich Bloodaxe BSN

(14,733 posts)
2. I think we'll see this going forward too.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 07:47 PM
Feb 2016

Quite simply, Bernie wins with younger voters.

From the census bureau :

The median age for Hispanics is 27 years while the median age for the U.S. population is 37 years.


More Hispanics are a lot younger than the average general population as a whole.

ebayfool

(3,411 posts)
3. Well, that'll make a few prolific posters happy ...
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 07:47 PM
Feb 2016

snip/

However WCVI concludes the Clinton margin of victory is adequately explained by the large margin of victory Secretary Clinton won among African American voters (77% to 23% with AA's representing 13% of the voters).


The campaign has to work harder on this.

ebayfool

(3,411 posts)
8. According to the aforementioned prolific posters, yes.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 08:52 PM
Feb 2016

According to me, I shoulda used the sarcasm smiley!

I think his platform lays out the steps needed, no reform - social, racial, anything - is gonna happen without economic reform. Too much money buying off politicians will prevent the changes from seeing the light of day.

But others seem to view it in reverse from me.

 

Vattel

(9,289 posts)
4. That's amazing. I would have thought all the lies and distortions
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 07:51 PM
Feb 2016

about Bernie's record on immigration issues would have had a bigger effect.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
5. So doesn't that prove the effect of the Black vote? ...
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 07:53 PM
Feb 2016

I wonder if anyone will notice.

But that said, instead of this intramural squabble, perhaps, we ought to consider what we are doing now, and the effect it will have on the G/E.

As one DUer noted: the Latino, Female and Black Vote will be climbing over glass, through hell, in gasoline soaked draws to vote against trump (or cruz, or Rubio). But the question remains ... will working class whites, and (particularly) Sanders supporters.

I saw a couple OP's touting Sanders as the only candidate to prevent a president sanders. I really, recommend people take a good look at the electoral maps. They suggest that in a match up between HRC and trump, working class whites (and Sanders supporters) will either stay home or, more troubling, vote for trump.

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