2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWilliam C. Velásquez Institute: Bernie Sanders won the Latino vote in Nevada
WCVI concludes that the survey results are statistically consistent with the margin of victory of Hillary Clinton on Feb 20. The main dispute among pundits and between campaigns has been the assertion that it is statistically impossible for Hillary Clinton to narrowly lose the Latino vote (45% to 53% with Latinos representing 19% of the voters) and narrowly lose Whites (47% to 49% with Whites representing 59% of the voters) and still win the election by 5.3%.
However WCVI concludes the Clinton margin of victory is adequately explained by the large margin of victory Secretary Clinton won among African American voters (77% to 23% with AA's representing 13% of the voters).
Simply put there is no relevant statistical inconsistency between Edison's Entry Poll results for Latinos, Whites, and Blacks and the overall election results. Based on this fact WCVI concludes that there is no statistical basis to question the Latino vote breakdown between Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders.
We note that some analysts have said that Secretary Clinton's victories in heavily Latino precincts proved that she won the Latino vote. However the methodology of using heavily Latino or "barrio" precincts to represent Latino voting behavior has been considered ineffective and discarded for more than 30 years.
http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Who-Won-the-Nevada-Latino-Vote-.html?soid=1114208817960&aid=TUzlNNKZYHc
MisterP
(23,730 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Quite simply, Bernie wins with younger voters.
From the census bureau :
More Hispanics are a lot younger than the average general population as a whole.
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)snip/
However WCVI concludes the Clinton margin of victory is adequately explained by the large margin of victory Secretary Clinton won among African American voters (77% to 23% with AA's representing 13% of the voters).
The campaign has to work harder on this.
Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)NT
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)According to me, I shoulda used the sarcasm smiley!
I think his platform lays out the steps needed, no reform - social, racial, anything - is gonna happen without economic reform. Too much money buying off politicians will prevent the changes from seeing the light of day.
But others seem to view it in reverse from me.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)about Bernie's record on immigration issues would have had a bigger effect.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I wonder if anyone will notice.
But that said, instead of this intramural squabble, perhaps, we ought to consider what we are doing now, and the effect it will have on the G/E.
As one DUer noted: the Latino, Female and Black Vote will be climbing over glass, through hell, in gasoline soaked draws to vote against trump (or cruz, or Rubio). But the question remains ... will working class whites, and (particularly) Sanders supporters.
I saw a couple OP's touting Sanders as the only candidate to prevent a president sanders. I really, recommend people take a good look at the electoral maps. They suggest that in a match up between HRC and trump, working class whites (and Sanders supporters) will either stay home or, more troubling, vote for trump.