Sanders beat projections in Iowa and New Hampshire, and fought a closer race in Nevada than Obama
versus Clinton in 2008.
This story that the Sanders movement or its supporters have "failed" is nonsensical crap.
Let's not forget, the DNC rigged the debates to cut off Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee and Lawrence Lessig at their knees before the Iowa caucus. Martin O'Malley's candidacy survived but was mortally wounded by this gamesmanship. Sanders thrived despite these shenanigans.
Sanders was down by 55% a year before Iowa's caucus, down by 15% just a month before the caucus, and was down by over 5% on the day of the caucus:
The high priests of the establishment's conventional wisdom crowned Clinton with over a 70% chance of winning:
Sanders beat the shit out of those conventional expectations. The difference was a tiny fraction of one percent (the tightest caucus in history) and only a two voter-allocated-delegate distinction.
In New Hampshire, the success was even more dramatic. Sanders was 40% behind a year before the election, 7% ahead a month before the primary, and 14% ahead on primary day:
Sanders -- again -- crushed this projection with the actual vote by beating Clinton with a 22% margin and by winning 15 voter-allocated-delegates to Clinton's 9 (Sanders victory was beyond the maximum projected by the establishment's wisdom and Clinton's failure was worse than even their worst case scenarios).
Clinton's campaign had long bragged that ethnic voters in Nevada would make that state her firewall. In 2008, Clinton beat Obama by 5.7%. The polls had Sanders down by 55% a year before the caucus, down 13% a month before the caucus, and down by 3.5% on the day of the caucus:
Yet again, the Clinton campaign came with a pocketful of gamesmanship and shenanigans. Despite this, Sanders fought to a closer percentage than Obama (5.3% in 2016 versus 5.7% in 2008).
The suggestion that the Sanders movement or its supporters are not turning out is bullshit. Don't believe it.
Over the next 50 days, 31 more states will vote. Sanders has an excellent chance at winning a majority of those states (including Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Wisconsin, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, Utah, Hawaii, and Arizona). There are a number of additional states that look very close so this list could grow.
Hillary was the first lady of Arkansas and her husband is beloved in his native Arkansas so expect her to do well in states that border Arkansas. Also, Clinton performs best in the old Southern Confederacy states that vote Republican in the general election. There are a lot of Arkansas-bordering states and Southern Confederacy red states on the calendar from February 28 to March 1. Expect Clinton to do well in these Southern Confederacy red states (but expect Sanders to do well in Colorado (Sanders 49%; Clinton 43%), Massachusetts (Sanders 49%; Clinton 42%), Minnesota (there isn't recent polling but a poll a month ago indicated a margin-of-error race and Sanders is a 2-to-1 favorite in the betting markets), and Vermont (Sanders 86%; Clinton 10%).
After the Southern Confederacy red states, there is a batch of 8 states from March 22 to April 9, and Sanders could easily go 8-for-8 during this stretch.
Keep up the hope. Keep up the faith. Keep up the fight.
= new reply since forum marked as read
The Iraq War was the worst foreign policy mistake this country has made in the past 50 years.
And we are still there, fighting in Iraq.
But, the media doesn't report about the Iraq War anymore.
Or about the war in Afghanistan, either.
Thats his core but guess what, they are not the base of the democratic party anymore.
By a wide margin, maybe as much as 5 points.
Hillary just blew a 34-point lead in that state.
Bernie will also win in Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, and Utah because Hillary lost in those Western states in 2008.
Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #32)
I cannot attest to what you heard.
Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #41)
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
