2016 Postmortem

MrWendel

(1,881 posts) Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:24 PM Feb 2016

Sanders Conceding South in Super Tuesday Spending

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/23/1489839/-Sanders-Conceding-South-in-Super-Tuesday-Spending

By Omahan

After being outspent 2 to 1 in Nevada television by Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton is poised to outspend Bernie Sanders on television advertising leading up to Super Tuesday by approximately $800,000 according to NBC senior political analyst Marc Murray. Where the candidates are spending money is very different, and potentially significantly telling about the state of the race.

Murray notes,

Clinton and her Super PAC are up with ads in Alabama ($416,000), Arkansas ($43,000), Colorado ($540,000, Georgia ($295,000), Massachusetts ($543,000), Minnesota ($386,000), Oklahoma ($378,000), Tennessee ($421,000), Texas ($586,000), Vermont ($7,000) and Virginia ($452,000).

By contrast, Sanders is up in Colorado ($1.2 million), Massachusetts ($650,000) Minnesota ($680,000), Oklahoma ($690,000) and Texas ($32,000)

While it is possible Sanders comes in with late ad buys still, it is worth noting he is pouring all of his resources into only 5 Super Tuesday states and not advertising at all in 6 primarily Southern contests.

(More in link)

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Sanders Conceding South in Super Tuesday Spending (Original Post) MrWendel Feb 2016 OP

The bolded riversedge Feb 2016 #1

Trump is spending almost nothing and might win all of those states except TX which will be close. LonePirate Feb 2016 #2

Interesting. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #3

He should spend in TX, VA, and TN DemocraticWing Feb 2016 #4

riversedge

(70,273 posts)

1. The bolded

Reply to MrWendel (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:38 PM

Feb 2016

area below seems to tell it all.

.....David Wasserman at the Cook Political Report concurs noting if Sanders has a path to the nomination he should be winning 58% of Massachusetts pledged delegates, 65% of Minnesota’s, and 62% of Colorado’s. It is also worth noting Sanders hasn’t hit Silver’s targets in the first 3 contests, and only matched Wasserman’s target in New Hampshire. Wasserman’s scorecard says Sanders should have a 2:1 delegate lead after the first 3 primaries.

Sanders is intently focusing on 5 states on Super Tuesday: Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont. The mathematical issue is while those 5 states award 288 delegates, the remaining Super Tuesday states award 571. Pouring resources into winning a few specific states is a great strategy towards prolonging a candidate’s relevance. However, it isn’t that great of a strategy for winning a proportionately awarded delegate race.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/23/1489839/-Sanders-Conceding-South-in-Super-Tuesday-Spending

LonePirate

(13,429 posts)

2. Trump is spending almost nothing and might win all of those states except TX which will be close.

Reply to MrWendel (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:52 PM

Feb 2016

Alfresco

(1,698 posts)

3. Interesting. :-)

Reply to MrWendel (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 05:28 PM

Feb 2016

DemocraticWing

(1,290 posts)

4. He should spend in TX, VA, and TN

Reply to MrWendel (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 05:56 PM

Feb 2016

He can get close enough (I think he's down 55-45 or thereabouts in those states) to get a decent chunk of delegates. GA, AL, AR are a money pit for our side at this point though.

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