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TroyD

(4,551 posts)
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:12 AM Oct 2012

NBC/WSJ/Marist — VA (R 48, O 47), OH (O 51, R 45), FL (O 48, R 47)

A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

More:

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/11/14352371-nbcwsjmarist-poll-romney-gains-in-key-swing-states

40 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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NBC/WSJ/Marist — VA (R 48, O 47), OH (O 51, R 45), FL (O 48, R 47) (Original Post) TroyD Oct 2012 OP
And we know what happened to Ohio in 2004... AZ Progressive Oct 2012 #1
Obama can win without them BainsBane Oct 2012 #20
After 2000, I don't think any dem will ever trust or count on Florida Lord_Maculus Oct 2012 #23
not bad at all. I thought that they might be worse. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #2
On A Scale Of 1-10 With 10 Doing A Tap Dance And 1 Wetting The Bed I'll Give This A 6.5 DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #3
In this post debate context, I'd give these numbers a 9.5. speedoo Oct 2012 #7
You Are Right DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #9
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! courseofhistory Oct 2012 #14
Yep. FBaggins Oct 2012 #33
That Ohio poll is just what we needed. Democratopia Oct 2012 #4
Yes, six points in OH is good. LisaL Oct 2012 #11
Sweet.... woolldog Oct 2012 #5
As A Former Floridian I Would Hate To See FL Go Red, Much Less The Entire Southeast DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6
Yep! courseofhistory Oct 2012 #15
Bill Clinton is in AZ at this very moment with Richard Carmona TroyD Oct 2012 #16
With all the work oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #8
As long as Ohio goes blue, Obama wins. Democratopia Oct 2012 #10
1 out of 8 in ohio are auto workers or family of auto workers..OHIO = MICHIGAN Tribetime Oct 2012 #12
Doesn't that message need to get out there more? TroyD Oct 2012 #17
How many times can TroyD post the word debacle in one day? alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #21
Don't start again TroyD Oct 2012 #24
Actually not a whole lot of movement toward Romney in any of them Blaukraut Oct 2012 #13
Certainly we can bring Virginia back. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #19
I think the AA vote in VA and NC will bring it home for Obama BluegrassDem Oct 2012 #25
right Cosmocat Oct 2012 #37
It's likely voters and it's 100% post debate! speedoo Oct 2012 #18
Good numbers for Obama TexasCPA Oct 2012 #22
Early voting teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #26
Why in the world would you get rid of early voting? LisaL Oct 2012 #27
Just pointing out teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #30
Apparently the GOP is way up in absentee ballot requests in OH davidn3600 Oct 2012 #29
Obama's still holding it together in Ohio. RandySF Oct 2012 #28
Obama leads with over 50% in Ohio! Leads in Florida!!! That is the headline. 192 here we come. graham4anything Oct 2012 #31
Thanks for reminding us about the number 192 TroyD Oct 2012 #32
better than i expected mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #34
good numbers! DCBob Oct 2012 #35
Joe S. said Ohio numbers don't helpisontheway Oct 2012 #36
He's an idiot. DCBob Oct 2012 #38
strong leader BelieveMe3 Oct 2012 #39
Still obsessing over the debate treestar Oct 2012 #40

BainsBane

(53,074 posts)
20. Obama can win without them
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:31 AM
Oct 2012

but I don't think he'll have to, at least not VA. I don't trust Florida. I used to live there.

Lord_Maculus

(53 posts)
23. After 2000, I don't think any dem will ever trust or count on Florida
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:55 AM
Oct 2012

Or the crooks who run their state and "count" the votes.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
3. On A Scale Of 1-10 With 10 Doing A Tap Dance And 1 Wetting The Bed I'll Give This A 6.5
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:15 AM
Oct 2012

All Obama has to do is fight to hold on to OH. RobMe has to flip all three...

 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
5. Sweet....
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:17 AM
Oct 2012

w/in striking distance in FL and VA. I want this to be a landslide.

Bring Clinton to these 3 states. Let the big dawg loose!

Tribetime

(4,711 posts)
12. 1 out of 8 in ohio are auto workers or family of auto workers..OHIO = MICHIGAN
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:25 AM
Oct 2012

romney sealed his fate with his comments about DETRIOT GOING BANKRUPT

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
17. Doesn't that message need to get out there more?
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:30 AM
Oct 2012

It's been a while since I've seen the Romney "Let Detroit go bankrupt" ad.

We better do another round of them after the debate debacle, just to be on the safe side.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
24. Don't start again
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 01:00 AM
Oct 2012

It's the only time I've used the word today, actually.

And I used it because that's the phrase in the media to describe the Obama poll collapse from the debate.

Now let's get back to work

Blaukraut

(5,695 posts)
13. Actually not a whole lot of movement toward Romney in any of them
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:27 AM
Oct 2012

3 points in VA, 2 in Ohio, and a wash in FL. These numbers are definitely heartening. I think Obama will win all three states, provided the enthusiasm gap created by the debate will dissipate.

 

BluegrassDem

(1,693 posts)
25. I think the AA vote in VA and NC will bring it home for Obama
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:11 AM
Oct 2012

More so in VA than NC, but NC will be a nail biter. I think the ceiling is higher for Obama in Virginia. He'll win it. Romney is tapped out in VA.

speedoo

(11,229 posts)
18. It's likely voters and it's 100% post debate!
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:31 AM
Oct 2012

"The polls were conducted from Oct. 7-9 and have a margin of error with likely voters of +/- 3.1 percent."

 
26. Early voting
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:33 AM
Oct 2012

Nobody on this thread mentioned the early voting. That is why Obama is up by 6 in Ohio. If you get rid of early voting, he is only up by 2. Also, it doesn't appear Gary Johnson is included.

However, the early voting may be good news for Obama. 19% have voted and 63% for Obama. This sounds great but it almost seems too good to be true. I was severely depressed today and waiting for the end of the world, preparing for the beyond horrifying Romney presidence. This OH poll has given me some optimism but cautious optimism as it is a liberally biased NBC poll that seems too good to be true.

Can someone convince me to believe these numbers so I can sleep?

 
30. Just pointing out
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 03:10 AM
Oct 2012

that early voting makes a difference in this poll. Chill Lisa! I thought we're on the same team.

Plus I may not be thinking clearly as the thought of financial collapse and the end of the world as we know it due to a Romney/Ryan ticket is not exactly the most comforting thought in the world!

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
29. Apparently the GOP is way up in absentee ballot requests in OH
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:51 AM
Oct 2012

I dont know what the numbers were but it was mentioned briefly on the news.

It also depends on what parts of the state the early voting is coming from. If most of the early voting is taking place in a county like Cuyahoga, Hamilton, or Franklin, that high number for Obama isn't as impressive.

Just have to keep watching.

 

graham4anything

(11,464 posts)
31. Obama leads with over 50% in Ohio! Leads in Florida!!! That is the headline. 192 here we come.
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 04:15 AM
Oct 2012

headlines are funny

with all the gains they say Mittens made, Obama has OVER 50% in Ohio.
Once over 50% the other guy can't win.

stats are funny
Romney still is in the 45 to 47 range in about every single contested place.

Romney is NOT anywhere near 50. (yes, statistically 47 is only 3 from 50, but on a long range graph, never at or above 50. 3 is a long way this time of year from getting there.

In Virginia add Goode to the equation, add Gary Johnson nationwide, and that is the difference bettwen Obama having 50plus and Romney ending at 46 or 47.

It still ain't even close.

Assuming (and I don't believe the lowest Obama numbers anyhow),but let's humor those who do-assuming then Obama is at his lowest right now (like he was after NH in 2008 primaries),
he has no where to go but up.

Remember the last 2 months of the primary season? Hillary kept saying she was coming back, but statistically and math wise, it was impossible (even though Obama didn't have the magic number in hand, the weight of the system showed she could never get to that magic number herself.

Remember-it's 192 we are looking for. 192 electoral votes the evening of election before
11pm eastern / 8pm western time. We get that 192, we won, because 78 votes out west still coming in later that night for Obama (Wash/Or/Hawaii and california.)

So look for the 192. We won when he hits it and those 4 states are not yet counted.

helpisontheway

(5,008 posts)
36. Joe S. said Ohio numbers don't
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 06:50 AM
Oct 2012

Add up. He wants to talk to Chuck! LOL Then Mika said something about more Dems being questioned in the survey than last time. Gotta keep Joe happy. SMH

BelieveMe3

(134 posts)
39. strong leader
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 08:12 AM
Oct 2012

Romney is seen as the stronger leader in these polls--I don't like that part one bit. That comes from that debate and the more aggressive guy is seen as the stronger guy.
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