2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNBC/WSJ/Marist — VA (R 48, O 47), OH (O 51, R 45), FL (O 48, R 47)
A week after President Barack Obamas lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.
Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last weeks poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the polls margin of error.
In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.
In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governors strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. Thats a 2-point uptick for Romney.
But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last weeks poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)
More:
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/11/14352371-nbcwsjmarist-poll-romney-gains-in-key-swing-states
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)We need Virginia and Florida as well.
BainsBane
(53,074 posts)but I don't think he'll have to, at least not VA. I don't trust Florida. I used to live there.
Lord_Maculus
(53 posts)Or the crooks who run their state and "count" the votes.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)All Obama has to do is fight to hold on to OH. RobMe has to flip all three...
speedoo
(11,229 posts)That Ohio result is huge.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Everything is relative. I was looking at in a vacuum.
courseofhistory
(801 posts)FBaggins
(26,774 posts)And I'll take a 6.5 and be happy with it.
Haven't seen much above a 3-4 in almost a week.
Democratopia
(552 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)w/in striking distance in FL and VA. I want this to be a landslide.
Bring Clinton to these 3 states. Let the big dawg loose!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts).
courseofhistory
(801 posts)Big Dawg will wrap it all up!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)OFA has done in NC, I'd sure hate for our state to turn back red.
Democratopia
(552 posts)Tribetime
(4,711 posts)romney sealed his fate with his comments about DETRIOT GOING BANKRUPT
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It's been a while since I've seen the Romney "Let Detroit go bankrupt" ad.
We better do another round of them after the debate debacle, just to be on the safe side.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Let's have a contest!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It's the only time I've used the word today, actually.
And I used it because that's the phrase in the media to describe the Obama poll collapse from the debate.
Now let's get back to work
Blaukraut
(5,695 posts)3 points in VA, 2 in Ohio, and a wash in FL. These numbers are definitely heartening. I think Obama will win all three states, provided the enthusiasm gap created by the debate will dissipate.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)GOTV. Tim Kaine is polling well.
BluegrassDem
(1,693 posts)More so in VA than NC, but NC will be a nail biter. I think the ceiling is higher for Obama in Virginia. He'll win it. Romney is tapped out in VA.
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)again, the framing.
BIG NEWS FOR THE R!
speedoo
(11,229 posts)"The polls were conducted from Oct. 7-9 and have a margin of error with likely voters of +/- 3.1 percent."
TexasCPA
(527 posts)teabaggersarestupid
(111 posts)Nobody on this thread mentioned the early voting. That is why Obama is up by 6 in Ohio. If you get rid of early voting, he is only up by 2. Also, it doesn't appear Gary Johnson is included.
However, the early voting may be good news for Obama. 19% have voted and 63% for Obama. This sounds great but it almost seems too good to be true. I was severely depressed today and waiting for the end of the world, preparing for the beyond horrifying Romney presidence. This OH poll has given me some optimism but cautious optimism as it is a liberally biased NBC poll that seems too good to be true.
Can someone convince me to believe these numbers so I can sleep?
LisaL
(44,974 posts)Those are the votes he already got.
teabaggersarestupid
(111 posts)that early voting makes a difference in this poll. Chill Lisa! I thought we're on the same team.
Plus I may not be thinking clearly as the thought of financial collapse and the end of the world as we know it due to a Romney/Ryan ticket is not exactly the most comforting thought in the world!
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)I dont know what the numbers were but it was mentioned briefly on the news.
It also depends on what parts of the state the early voting is coming from. If most of the early voting is taking place in a county like Cuyahoga, Hamilton, or Franklin, that high number for Obama isn't as impressive.
Just have to keep watching.
RandySF
(59,360 posts)Even with Romney's surge, it still looks good there.
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)headlines are funny
with all the gains they say Mittens made, Obama has OVER 50% in Ohio.
Once over 50% the other guy can't win.
stats are funny
Romney still is in the 45 to 47 range in about every single contested place.
Romney is NOT anywhere near 50. (yes, statistically 47 is only 3 from 50, but on a long range graph, never at or above 50. 3 is a long way this time of year from getting there.
In Virginia add Goode to the equation, add Gary Johnson nationwide, and that is the difference bettwen Obama having 50plus and Romney ending at 46 or 47.
It still ain't even close.
Assuming (and I don't believe the lowest Obama numbers anyhow),but let's humor those who do-assuming then Obama is at his lowest right now (like he was after NH in 2008 primaries),
he has no where to go but up.
Remember the last 2 months of the primary season? Hillary kept saying she was coming back, but statistically and math wise, it was impossible (even though Obama didn't have the magic number in hand, the weight of the system showed she could never get to that magic number herself.
Remember-it's 192 we are looking for. 192 electoral votes the evening of election before
11pm eastern / 8pm western time. We get that 192, we won, because 78 votes out west still coming in later that night for Obama (Wash/Or/Hawaii and california.)
So look for the 192. We won when he hits it and those 4 states are not yet counted.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Good to remember.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)now its time to fight!!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The romney surge is over.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)Add up. He wants to talk to Chuck! LOL Then Mika said something about more Dems being questioned in the survey than last time. Gotta keep Joe happy. SMH
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I dont why people watch that fool every morning.
BelieveMe3
(134 posts)Romney is seen as the stronger leader in these polls--I don't like that part one bit. That comes from that debate and the more aggressive guy is seen as the stronger guy.
treestar
(82,383 posts)With yet more polls.