2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSC exit polls say white 58-42 for Sanders. Black 84-16 for Hillary.
Samples were 62% black and 34% white. Reported turnout was 61% black, while Obama's turnout in the 2008 primary was only 55% black. (On edit: Hillary outperformed Obama among blacks, scoring 84-16, when Obama beat her with only 76% of the black vote. -http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/27/politics/south-carolina-primary-exit-polls-democrats/ )
Something does not add up. Does anyone have more information? One link reported light turnout.
It is possible from these numbers to conclude southern dem whites stayed home. Possibly to Trump?
Any thoughts?
TM99
(8,352 posts)That is the important figure.
Land Shark
(6,346 posts)Because that is what the adjusted exit poll data say.
napi21
(45,806 posts)I honestly thougt the talking heads might have that wrong, or at least were overstating reality, but I was wrong.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)she has lock on black vote as both nevada and SC.that's their right.even though i strongly disagree
the caucus states may be fixed against bernie as iowa and nevada prove
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)I wondered about that. I read that Harry Reid called the union bosses and told them to get their members out there for Hillary. So, since caucuses are visible and personal, is labor afraid to caucus for their own choices or under pressure to please the union bosses? That may be a huge failure in the caucus system.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)To say she has the black vote everywhere would be like saying they are all the same. No one should ever say that.
napi21
(45,806 posts)the Clintons are well known and trusted by the Black Community in our Country. it's very hard for a white man who's relatively unknown to break through that bond. THAT's the meme that I was hoping was wrong. At least right now, they appear to be right.
I HOPE I'm proven wrong next Tuesday! My husband and I will be voting for Bernie and we're in Ga. I'll contribute my one vote and hope a lot of others do too!
TexasTowelie
(112,510 posts)Later exit polls showed Clinton winning 53%-47% among white voters. Clinton also gained a few points among black voters in the later exit poll results.
Henhouse
(646 posts)54% Clinton
46% Sanders
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/sc/Dem
Land Shark
(6,346 posts)datguy_6
(176 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)2banon
(7,321 posts)i'm just talking about ballots now. not the super delegate counts in the primaries or electoral college vote.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)But white voters only made up 35% of voters in South Carolina on Saturday, according to the polls, and Clinton beat him with that group 54%-46%.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/27/politics/south-carolina-primary-exit-polls-democrats/
Land Shark
(6,346 posts)They are different now, along with other categories http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/SC
If I printed out initial exit polls then there was somehow a swing from a 16 point Sanders lead to an 8 point Clinton lead during the day.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Hillary won white voters.
Land Shark
(6,346 posts)My post is basically a question. Perhaps your answer is that the exit poll I have has unrepresentative samples?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Your numbers are off.
Land Shark
(6,346 posts)For example, my printout for exit polls ages 17-29 says Sanders 63, clinton 37. The same link now says 60-40 in favor of Sanders. http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/SC possibly, I was still looking at "initial" exit polls but my numbers are not "off". If I am looking at initial numbers there is quite the huge gap between intial (16 point Sanders victory) and final for white voters
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)On DU we have seen on numerous occasions multiple recs from one poster on a singular thread. The e-vote is easily manipulated. DU has proven so.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)AgerolanAmerican
(1,000 posts)Many of my neighbors who usually join me at the polls on Election Day declined this year because they had already voted for Trump.
oasis
(49,427 posts)You gotta give the SC folks credit for knowing bullshit when they see it.
valerief
(53,235 posts)vote results. Once a reliable indicator, they're considered pretty much shit now.
ThePhilosopher04
(1,732 posts)the exit polls were adjusted to fit the crime.
Marr
(20,317 posts)I remember when exit polls were broadly described as the most reliable indicator of election results. It was just a truism.
Then electronic voting came along and suddenly exit polls were totally unreliable, and 'everyone knew that'.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)ThePhilosopher04
(1,732 posts)she will get drilled by Trump ... BADLY.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Great primary strategy...in November, not so much.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)She won white voters. The only group she didn't fully capture was the 18-29 year olds.
Land Shark
(6,346 posts)Historic NY
(37,454 posts)Clinton won almost every group of voters in South Carolina -- including men, women, white and black voters. She also won across the ideological spectrum of Democrats in South Carolina -- winning at least 70% of voters who said they were conservative, moderate, liberal and very liberal.
Clinton also edged out Sanders among voters who said they wanted someone honest, 51%-49%
But white voters only made up 35% of voters in South Carolina on Saturday, according to the polls, and Clinton beat him with that group 54%-46%.
Sanders won voters under the age of 29, 54% to 46%, but they only accounted for 15% of the electorate Saturday. But Clinton won voters over the age of 30 almost 3 to 1 over Sanders.
✔
?@chucktodd
Updated SC exits w/final interviews give Clinton even BIGGER
lead among AfAm vote (87-13) and she now LEADS among white
Dems (53-47). Wow
7:55 PM - 27 Feb 201