2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPolls don't lie....we are nominating the wrong candidate
General Election Match-Ups from Real Clear Politics:
Clinton45.3
Trump42.5
Clinton+2.8
Sanders47.5
Trump41.5
Sanders+6.0
Cruz45.3
Clinton44.5
Cruz+0.8
Sanders45.7
Cruz41.0
Sanders+4.7
Rubio47.5
Clinton42.8
Rubio+4.7
Sanders44.0
Rubio44.0
Tie
And it drives me crazy.
Response to Joe the Revelator (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Safely within the MOE, I would presume.
Response to Barack_America (Reply #3)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Response to Joe the Revelator (Reply #10)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)We should be putting our strongest candidate forward, not one who has a history of a strong ceiling on her national poll numbers.
And unless Trump does what Bernie did, and just stop campaigning (in SC for bernie, nationally for Trump) then Hillary's numbers will not go up. They never do for her.
Response to Joe the Revelator (Reply #16)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Because...stuff.
cleopotrick
(79 posts)Califonz
(465 posts)elleng
(131,176 posts)we are going to lose.'
Marco Rubio
Goes both ways, for BOTH parties.
JudyM
(29,293 posts)And Bernie is the most liked and most trusted.
I'm glad you 'got' this. Spread it around.
JudyM
(29,293 posts)undecided voters to. There are a TON of undecided voters with the election a few days away.
If DUers want Bernie to win we have to volunteer to get out the vote. As he says, if turnout is high, it's great for him. Everybody pitching in one by one can make it great for him.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)....Hillary for the party. Anyone would be honestly. I was a DraftBiden, then M'OM supporter until those wheels fell off. I've already gone through my stages of grief.
Now I'm just sitting back and watching the party shoot itself in the foot.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)That'll be interesting!
Codeine
(25,586 posts)Mark my words!
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)That doesn't change the fact that Hillary is an weak candidate. I mean she's under FBI investigation!
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)I dunno what the rest of you are doing.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)Gothmog
(145,635 posts)Polls do lie when such poling is based on bad data and premise. Nate Silver and other are clear that these polls are worthless in part because Sanders had not been vetted. Clinton has been vetted for two decades but the GOP and the press have not paid any attention to Sanders and so these polls are meaningless. Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Watching Sanders at Monday nights Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump or another Republican nominee would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.
The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the socialist label and requested that Sanders define it so that it doesnt concern the rest of us citizens.
Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who dont want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top thats my definition of democratic socialism.
But thats not how Republicans will define socialism and theyll have the dictionary on their side. Theyll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. Theyll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldnt be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists dont win national elections in the United States .
Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases one of the biggest tax hikes in history, as moderator Chris Cuomo put it to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that hypothetically, youre going to pay $5,000 more in taxes, and declared, W e will raise taxes, yes we will. He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that its demagogic to say, oh, youre paying more in taxes.
Well, yes and Trump is a demagogue.
Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government bigger than ever, Sanders didnt quarrel, saying, P eople want to criticize me, okay, and F ine, if thats the criticism, I accept it.
Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.
Match up polls are worthless because the candidates have not been fully vetted. Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.
anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)by not attacking Bernie AT ALL, thus hoping he will be nominated...or they haven't gotten around to him yet, but will if he wins the nomination. There have be NO Bernie attacks on those things which will resonate with the fear and ignorance of the American people. To name a few: socialist (you can say democratic socialist all you want...they just hear socialist), agnostic, culturally Jewish (i.e. not Christian), pro-pot legalization, wants to raise taxes. The polls will change drastically a month or two after those kinds of ads begin. I'm not proud of the people who will respond to those ads, just being realistic.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)fact clinton has horrible negative numbers now.and you think right won't attack her.bullcrap.
and what exactly would electing clinton get us? for certain a republican senate.someone more willing to sign centrist and corporate things they pass just like her husband.and who will support more war.and then gurante dems are killed in 2018 assuring gop control of house till 2032 at least possibly longer.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Gothmog
(145,635 posts)Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010
The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/
Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.
No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race.
brooklynite
(94,770 posts)JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)Let's focus first on nominating the right one, already.
I want to see Sanders people work for it.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)kgnu_fan
(3,021 posts)vi5
(13,305 posts)..and that is that the party powers and bigwigs will take away the completely wrong lesson from this loss.
Not that they need to advocate for progressive values. Not that they need to appeal to people's hopes and dreams rather than scolding them and telling them what they can't do and what can't be done. Not that they need to nominate candidates who give them a reason TO vote FOR them and not just to vote against the other guy.
The lesson they'll take away is that they need to be more conservative and more like Trump.
Mealy mouthed, pathetic, third way centrist Democrats can never fail, they can only be failed.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)We know that Hillary and Sanders lose in SC. That is why last night's results were not a relevant predictor of the outcomes in the GE.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)How the heck is Trump going to win a state like Florida with huge latino and black populations? Without Florida the Republican candidate has virtually no chance of winning.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)You answer that question and tell us why Trump is any different.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Answer that and you have your answer.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)One only has to look at GOP domination in those regions and the Independent vote and their fixed, long-held (negative) opinion of Hillary.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)it will become crystal clear why Trump is going to have a very hard time beating Hillary.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)I just listed the factors that I believe count against her. What is the basis for your assumptions?
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)huge majorities in a bunch of states.
Polls don't tell the truth either. They're just a snapshot.
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)No Dem is going to win SC.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Don't fear a loss,
Fear is one of the most effective manipulations by conservatives, be they republicans or democrats.
With apologies to Frank Herbert:
Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration of hope
Face your fear, permit it to pass over and through you.
When it has gone past, turn your eye to see its path, there will be nothing...
But you with your hopes and dreams will remain.
Embrace the possibility of loss. Over time it leaves for tomorrow that which is better
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Some people simply have no clue as to what they represent.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)You want him to be the candidate then you need to convince the base to nominate the man. So far you're not managing.
You guys nominate him then I'll vote for him, as will almost every Clinton supporter. Stop railing at the world and get your ducks in a row. Clinton supporters learned from losing in 2008 and now she's winning handily.
Do your electoral gruntwork or stop crying.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)esp as we're still in primary season. Talking about Rubio is pointless, as he has no shot at the nomination, for starters.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)This isn't hard.
amborin
(16,631 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)what it would be if Bernie got all the support from the Democratic Party, instead of them trying to bury him. WOW, we'd trounce them.
But I think the Corporate Democrats are more interested in their raw power than in actually working for the people or the country.