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Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 12:55 AM Feb 2016

Polls don't lie....we are nominating the wrong candidate


General Election Match-Ups from Real Clear Politics:

Clinton45.3
Trump42.5
Clinton+2.8

Sanders47.5
Trump41.5
Sanders+6.0

Cruz45.3
Clinton44.5
Cruz+0.8

Sanders45.7
Cruz41.0
Sanders+4.7

Rubio47.5
Clinton42.8
Rubio+4.7

Sanders44.0
Rubio44.0
Tie

And it drives me crazy.
52 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Polls don't lie....we are nominating the wrong candidate (Original Post) Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 OP
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #1
Sorry? Their composite is Clinton +2.5 over Trump. Barack_America Feb 2016 #3
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #5
The results confirmed the poll, the margin was just unexpected. Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #10
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #14
It's like you don't understand the point of a primary Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #16
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #18
Everyone knows you can't trust polls that don't favor Clinton. Barack_America Feb 2016 #2
LoL +1 cleopotrick Feb 2016 #28
But it's HERRR TUUUURRRNNNN! Califonz Feb 2016 #4
'If we are going to nominate someone who 50% of our people can't stand, elleng Feb 2016 #6
Polls consistently put Hilary as the least liked and trusted of *all*the candidates. JudyM Feb 2016 #9
Exactly. elleng Feb 2016 #11
I am sending all my canvassers out with this info and the realclearpolitics website to send JudyM Feb 2016 #17
Great! elleng Feb 2016 #19
+1 NWCorona Feb 2016 #48
Stage 3? zappaman Feb 2016 #7
Funnily enough, I am not a strong Bernie backer, other than the fact I think he is better than... Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #8
This crap is unnecessary. Use your words. libdem4life Feb 2016 #25
Yep. Watch out for 4 Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #31
"Brokered convention!" "Third-party run!" Codeine Feb 2016 #35
Yes I agree that there's supporters of Bernie who are angry NWCorona Feb 2016 #50
I'm nominating Bernie. bobbobbins01 Feb 2016 #12
:-D Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #13
But it will be a "pragmatic loss" nt Lorien Feb 2016 #15
Hypothetical match up polls are worthless and should not be relied for anything Gothmog Feb 2016 #20
The reason I went to Hillary's team is that I realized that either the right is playing us, anotherproletariat Feb 2016 #21
so issues don't matter at all Robbins Feb 2016 #44
Polls lie all the time. And in some cases so do votes. nt Jitter65 Feb 2016 #22
OP based on worthless match up general election polls Gothmog Feb 2016 #23
"polls don't lie"...the irony. brooklynite Feb 2016 #24
Polls are used to lie - and more importantly to manipulate - all the time. JackRiddler Feb 2016 #26
GE polls mean very little at this point in time. DCBob Feb 2016 #27
Kick! Wake up, people! kgnu_fan Feb 2016 #29
The worst part about this is the same as it will always be... vi5 Feb 2016 #30
Ok. Has anyone ever done a 50 state study of these matchup? leveymg Feb 2016 #32
The answer is no. DCBob Feb 2016 #34
How does any GOP candidate ever win states like FL, TX, SC? leveymg Feb 2016 #38
How is Trump anything like any other GOP candidate? DCBob Feb 2016 #40
He'll win the south and the rustbelt, most of the midwest states, and enough others to beat Hillary leveymg Feb 2016 #41
Once we get to the real campaign and the state by state GE polling comes out.. DCBob Feb 2016 #43
Please tell us why you think HRC has an inherent advantage going into the GE. leveymg Feb 2016 #47
Better tell rjsquirrel Feb 2016 #33
What good is that HUGE majority in SC going to do us. Goblinmonger Feb 2016 #51
Nothing more often brings political change than loss. HereSince1628 Feb 2016 #36
I wouldn't say lie as much as... NCTraveler Feb 2016 #37
Well then get out your damned vote. Codeine Feb 2016 #39
You....I like you. Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #42
Hypothetical matchups are irrelevant Tarc Feb 2016 #45
Ok, if you feel that way, just focus on the numbers for Trump Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #46
this is Bernie supporters are with Bernie to the convention amborin Feb 2016 #49
And just imagine pdsimdars Feb 2016 #52

Response to Joe the Revelator (Original post)

Response to Barack_America (Reply #3)

Response to Joe the Revelator (Reply #10)

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
16. It's like you don't understand the point of a primary
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:08 AM
Feb 2016

We should be putting our strongest candidate forward, not one who has a history of a strong ceiling on her national poll numbers.

And unless Trump does what Bernie did, and just stop campaigning (in SC for bernie, nationally for Trump) then Hillary's numbers will not go up. They never do for her.

Response to Joe the Revelator (Reply #16)

elleng

(131,176 posts)
6. 'If we are going to nominate someone who 50% of our people can't stand,
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:00 AM
Feb 2016

we are going to lose.'

Marco Rubio

Goes both ways, for BOTH parties.

JudyM

(29,293 posts)
9. Polls consistently put Hilary as the least liked and trusted of *all*the candidates.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:04 AM
Feb 2016

And Bernie is the most liked and most trusted.

JudyM

(29,293 posts)
17. I am sending all my canvassers out with this info and the realclearpolitics website to send
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:12 AM
Feb 2016

undecided voters to. There are a TON of undecided voters with the election a few days away.

If DUers want Bernie to win we have to volunteer to get out the vote. As he says, if turnout is high, it's great for him. Everybody pitching in one by one can make it great for him.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
8. Funnily enough, I am not a strong Bernie backer, other than the fact I think he is better than...
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:03 AM
Feb 2016

....Hillary for the party. Anyone would be honestly. I was a DraftBiden, then M'OM supporter until those wheels fell off. I've already gone through my stages of grief.

Now I'm just sitting back and watching the party shoot itself in the foot.

NWCorona

(8,541 posts)
50. Yes I agree that there's supporters of Bernie who are angry
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 11:20 AM
Feb 2016

That doesn't change the fact that Hillary is an weak candidate. I mean she's under FBI investigation!

Gothmog

(145,635 posts)
20. Hypothetical match up polls are worthless and should not be relied for anything
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:17 AM
Feb 2016

Polls do lie when such poling is based on bad data and premise. Nate Silver and other are clear that these polls are worthless in part because Sanders had not been vetted. Clinton has been vetted for two decades but the GOP and the press have not paid any attention to Sanders and so these polls are meaningless. Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.


The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because the candidates have not been fully vetted. Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.
 

anotherproletariat

(1,446 posts)
21. The reason I went to Hillary's team is that I realized that either the right is playing us,
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:19 AM
Feb 2016

by not attacking Bernie AT ALL, thus hoping he will be nominated...or they haven't gotten around to him yet, but will if he wins the nomination. There have be NO Bernie attacks on those things which will resonate with the fear and ignorance of the American people. To name a few: socialist (you can say democratic socialist all you want...they just hear socialist), agnostic, culturally Jewish (i.e. not Christian), pro-pot legalization, wants to raise taxes. The polls will change drastically a month or two after those kinds of ads begin. I'm not proud of the people who will respond to those ads, just being realistic.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
44. so issues don't matter at all
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:26 PM
Feb 2016

fact clinton has horrible negative numbers now.and you think right won't attack her.bullcrap.

and what exactly would electing clinton get us? for certain a republican senate.someone more willing to sign centrist and corporate things they pass just like her husband.and who will support more war.and then gurante dems are killed in 2018 assuring gop control of house till 2032 at least possibly longer.

Gothmog

(145,635 posts)
23. OP based on worthless match up general election polls
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 10:49 AM
Feb 2016

Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010

The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.

No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race.
 

JackRiddler

(24,979 posts)
26. Polls are used to lie - and more importantly to manipulate - all the time.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 10:55 AM
Feb 2016

Let's focus first on nominating the right one, already.

I want to see Sanders people work for it.

 

vi5

(13,305 posts)
30. The worst part about this is the same as it will always be...
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:02 AM
Feb 2016

..and that is that the party powers and bigwigs will take away the completely wrong lesson from this loss.

Not that they need to advocate for progressive values. Not that they need to appeal to people's hopes and dreams rather than scolding them and telling them what they can't do and what can't be done. Not that they need to nominate candidates who give them a reason TO vote FOR them and not just to vote against the other guy.

The lesson they'll take away is that they need to be more conservative and more like Trump.

Mealy mouthed, pathetic, third way centrist Democrats can never fail, they can only be failed.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
32. Ok. Has anyone ever done a 50 state study of these matchup?
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:05 AM
Feb 2016

We know that Hillary and Sanders lose in SC. That is why last night's results were not a relevant predictor of the outcomes in the GE.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
34. The answer is no.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:08 AM
Feb 2016

How the heck is Trump going to win a state like Florida with huge latino and black populations? Without Florida the Republican candidate has virtually no chance of winning.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
38. How does any GOP candidate ever win states like FL, TX, SC?
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:14 AM
Feb 2016

You answer that question and tell us why Trump is any different.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
41. He'll win the south and the rustbelt, most of the midwest states, and enough others to beat Hillary
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 12:43 PM
Feb 2016

One only has to look at GOP domination in those regions and the Independent vote and their fixed, long-held (negative) opinion of Hillary.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
43. Once we get to the real campaign and the state by state GE polling comes out..
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:37 PM
Feb 2016

it will become crystal clear why Trump is going to have a very hard time beating Hillary.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
47. Please tell us why you think HRC has an inherent advantage going into the GE.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 11:15 AM
Feb 2016

I just listed the factors that I believe count against her. What is the basis for your assumptions?

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
33. Better tell
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:06 AM
Feb 2016

huge majorities in a bunch of states.

Polls don't tell the truth either. They're just a snapshot.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
36. Nothing more often brings political change than loss.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:13 AM
Feb 2016

Don't fear a loss,

Fear is one of the most effective manipulations by conservatives, be they republicans or democrats.

With apologies to Frank Herbert:

Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration of hope

Face your fear, permit it to pass over and through you.

When it has gone past, turn your eye to see its path, there will be nothing...

But you with your hopes and dreams will remain.


Embrace the possibility of loss. Over time it leaves for tomorrow that which is better

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
39. Well then get out your damned vote.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:18 AM
Feb 2016

You want him to be the candidate then you need to convince the base to nominate the man. So far you're not managing.

You guys nominate him then I'll vote for him, as will almost every Clinton supporter. Stop railing at the world and get your ducks in a row. Clinton supporters learned from losing in 2008 and now she's winning handily.

Do your electoral gruntwork or stop crying.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
45. Hypothetical matchups are irrelevant
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:54 PM
Feb 2016

esp as we're still in primary season. Talking about Rubio is pointless, as he has no shot at the nomination, for starters.

 

pdsimdars

(6,007 posts)
52. And just imagine
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 11:27 AM
Feb 2016

what it would be if Bernie got all the support from the Democratic Party, instead of them trying to bury him. WOW, we'd trounce them.
But I think the Corporate Democrats are more interested in their raw power than in actually working for the people or the country.

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