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With All Eyes On Trump, Clinton Is Winning The Democratic Nomination
In South Carolina today, Hillary Clinton scored her biggest victory yet in the Democratic presidential primary. She beat Bernie Sanders by what looks to be nearly 50 percentage points thanks to overwhelming support from African-Americans. As the race heads into Super Tuesday, Clinton has clear momentum: She has big leads in many of the 12 contests that will take place, according to the polls.
According to the South Carolina exit poll, Sanders lost black voters 14 percent to 86 percent. That doomed him in a contest in which 61 percent of voters were black. If white voters were more supportive of his candidacy, Sanders might have been able to keep the race closer. But they split 54 percent for Clinton to 46 percent for Sanders. The split makes the results among white voters in New Hampshire look more like an outlier compared with South Carolina, Iowa and Nevada. Maybe the Vermont senator had more of a next-door-neighbor advantage in New Hampshire than we initially thought.
Perhaps the most worrisome sign for Sanders is that the momentum he had heading into the first three contests seems to have been halted in South Carolina. Sanders was down 25 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEight South Carolina polling average a month ago, and it looks like he’s going to do even worse than that tonight.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/south-carolina-primary-results-2016-democrat-clinton-sanders/
10 replies
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Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
.
Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
Hillary Clinton is a 10/11 favorite at the offshore betting sites and the VT senator is a 7-1 underdog
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
If you bet on Hillary you have to put up $1,100 to win $1,000.00
If you bet on Bernie you have to put up $145.00 to win $1,000.00.
The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null:
Trial-heat polls, hereafter simply referred to as polls, ask respondents for whom they
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
and losing the general. Thanks for that.
No thanks are necessary, actually.
#lol@me
La-la land is a popular spot with a lot of people, sadly for us Democrats. I am hoping they will 'come to' soon!
Yikes. 
Sid
In addition to having the support of the establishment (in the form of endorsements arranged months or years ago, as well as superdelegates), she had the campaign experience and organization from 2008... where, as the former First Lady and NY Senator, she was starting on first base.
