2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat a Most Unpleasant Choice in November!
Only all Democrats, working together, can prevent us from having to choose between one of these:?h=310&w=325
(But they look so cozy together, don't they now?)
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)Don't assume that only Bernie supporters are here
TDale313
(7,820 posts)If you see that things are pretty fucked up for the vast majority of people and think we need someone who might at least try and fix it or at least make the case- she's not the one to do it. She loves the system we got. And it loves her.
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)Perhaps this is an OP that belongs in the Bernie forum.
TDale313
(7,820 posts)In fact that may be the best place to hash out the differences. The Hillary and Bernie forums are for supporters only- and a lot of their purpose is to allow supporters a safe space for their discussions/views without having to get bombarded with comments from "the other side"
This is perfectly acceptable for this forum.
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)The OP is either looking for confirmation or lashing out. That's best done in candidate specific groups. Unless, of course, the OP is looking for a brawl. Then that's what GDP has become. Fight club!
TDale313
(7,820 posts)I don't necessarily like the fight club feel of GD: P right now, but I would rather have discussions with people from the other "camp" (hopefully civil- it's to be strived for anyway) then place myself in a bubble. I know others feel different. I do post in the Bernie group, but I think it's good to have this place where the two camps mix and yeah, it's gonna get contentious but it's the best place for hashing out the differences. If I have a criticism/issue with a candidate- why do it in the one place his or her supporters are least likely to see it?
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)GDPis a great place to DISCUSS differences between candidates. Agreed.
But we see a lot of "I'm disgusted by Hillary!" Posts. This isn't really setting up a discussion, is it?
I will agree that we see some of the same from both sides, but in this instance the OP is really nothing more than an angry tirade that does nothing for the overall conversation. It belongs in the Sanders forum because of that.
Just an observation
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)Donald is that you?
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Hillary is the most qualified; she'll hit the ground running.
seattleite
(79 posts)He participated in the crooks' revolving door between Wall Street and the federal government (e.g. Timothy Geithner). Just like Hillary will.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Your line reeks of GOP snark I have heard many times over the last 8 years. You could not be more wrong about Obama. Get a clue.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)And do please explain why that red arrow in the "H" points to the right -- I've never been able to get an answer yet. Is Hillary still a Goldwater Girl?
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)She is clearly more popular among Dems than Bernie. So, yeah. I'm excited.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)All she's proven so far is that she can win a primary election is a state she's certain to lose in November, and a couple of dubiously-legit caucuses.
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)Has a majority of Dem votes and is expected to win most races on Tuesday.
Yes, she is more popular among Dems. The results are clear.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Which I thought I rather clearly stated...
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)But the math shows that more Dems are excited by and supporting Hillary - primaries and caucuses. The caucuses are interesting because these are where exciting candidates should shine. They should get more supporters because those supporters are excited by the candidate. Interestingly, Hillary got more in the caucuses. One could make the observation, then, that Dems are more excited by Hillary given both the caucus and primary votes.
The results are rather clear. Dems are more excited by Hillary than by Bernie
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)I have no doubt that Democrats in states like South Carolina (and most of the ST states, which are also Southern). Those are conservative states, and even most Democrats in them tend to be more conservative. The more-conservative candidate will always do better in such states. But what about states that are actually possible for the Democrat to win? It's far from clear that Hillary is the preferred Dem there.
The front-loading of conservative states in the primaries creates a huge obstacle, in terms of momentum, for the more progressive candidate to overcome. It's a huge problem...unless you're part of the status-quo.
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)The Democratic Party is a big tent. There are lots of ideologies in it...not just progressive. I think that HIllary appeals to a wider swath of Dems, therefore, will win the primary.
Tuesday will be interesting
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)...the votes of Democrats in deeply red states are utterly irrelevant in the GE. They're no more important to the result than GOP votes where I live (Oregon).
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)But even in the blue states there are many types of Dems. Purple states such as VA seem to prefer more moderate Dems. Hillarys appeal in these states to a larger section of a Dems and Indies is important
Logical
(22,457 posts)R. Daneel Olivaw
(12,606 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)Most people don't either
R. Daneel Olivaw
(12,606 posts)the evasive abuela.
But good luck pushing Goldman's lady.
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)We disagree. Have a great day
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Please proceed.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)He's so unexciting for me and many of us. The results indicate that. I'm not impressed that he can run the country. We also think his proposals are wildly unrealistic. So, not excited.
But I'm glad you are
(This was in response to #10 above)
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Assertions unthethered from reality are never a substitute for facts and evidence, ergo:
Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner
The predictions markets suggest she has a 62% chance of being the next president. That's substantially than her closest competitor.
The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null:
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)I informed you about five weeks or so ago (I believe) that Predictwise is nonsense. There was a time around February 11th that your beloved Predictwise had Marco Rubio at 44% to win the Republican nomination; Ted Cruz at 3%. Anyone thinking logically about this for just a little while would know that the guys in Predictwise's betting markets don't know what they're doing. Which isn't surprising, since they are most likely a bunch of British fellows trying to wager a Euro or two just for fun on something they know little about.
Nowadays?? They have Ted Cruz at 16% and Marco Rubio at 8%.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)That is why in most seven game series a team tied at 2-2 is valued at 50/50 and the team that wins game 5 is valued at 63/37 because their odds of them winning have just increased.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)next to The Donald. The gap between them, as you can see, is just so very small.
LuvLoogie
(7,048 posts)fredamae
(4,458 posts)of the "drip-drip-drip" email scandal....with every "leak/news update" the situation worsens...in optics, ever warning of discovered security issues. So, timing is everything.....the GOP makes sure Sanders is defeated-HRC wins the nomination and then right before election day (between late August-end of Oct) she is indicted. What happens with her voters then? She already has a trust issue. What happens to Dem chances then?
Seriously-I see the GOP Structure in place for a scenario like this already.
PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)We have two excellent candidates and I'm excited to vote for either in the GE.
Logical
(22,457 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)marions ghost
(19,841 posts)for stating the obvious.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)for the other.
Trump is really a centrist with Jacksonian flaming rhetoric.
Response to Herman4747 (Original post)
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Herman4747
(1,825 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)And we don't have polling places: 100% vote-by-mail for years.
Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #24)
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Logical
(22,457 posts)m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)earthside
(6,960 posts)... if that is the choice we get in November ... Trump or Clinton.
Pick your one percenter, insider elitist.
No thank you.
Let's hope buyer's remorse sets in pretty soon for the minions of Clintonism.
We still have time to offer the nation a genuinely progressive presidential candidate.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Hillary wins in a landslide!