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What a Most Unpleasant Choice in November! (Original Post) Herman4747 Feb 2016 OP
A lot of us are excited by Clinton Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #1
If you things are just hunky dory the way they stand, then by all means. TDale313 Feb 2016 #2
I'm very excited by a Clinton presidency Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #4
Support for specific candidates can go in GD:P TDale313 Feb 2016 #11
Sure. Just not the best place for it Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #15
Ya stay in the candidate forums you're just preaching to the choir TDale313 Feb 2016 #34
Let's agree on this point Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #37
you are stuck in the 90. Cobalt Violet Feb 2016 #20
Ok Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #23
Obama didn't bring that hope and change, did he? cwydro Feb 2016 #41
He sure didn't. seattleite Feb 2016 #43
Obama has been a terrific president CorkySt.Clair Feb 2016 #47
Excited about that 40% approval rating, are you? Herman4747 Feb 2016 #5
Very excited about her future in the whitehouse Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #6
Clearly? Bullshit. Lizzie Poppet Feb 2016 #27
She is 3 for 4 Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #29
1-for-2 in actual elections. Lizzie Poppet Feb 2016 #42
Ah. You did Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #44
I still say the results so far can't be assumed to be representative of the whole. Lizzie Poppet Feb 2016 #45
Well, those are Dems too Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #46
Sure, but as long as we have the (stupid and anachronistic) Electoral College... Lizzie Poppet Feb 2016 #48
Such is our system Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #49
And a lot of us have no fucking idea why you are excited. nt Logical Feb 2016 #10
Are the beach pics of her transcripts available yet? R. Daneel Olivaw Feb 2016 #18
Dont care Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #19
Most people are party-blind or will be turned off by R. Daneel Olivaw Feb 2016 #38
Nah Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #40
Enjoy divisive posts like this while you can. onehandle Feb 2016 #3
Enjoy believing your candidate is competitive in November while you can. Barack_America Feb 2016 #7
Same for us re: Bernie Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #12
Assertions unthethered from reality are never a substitute for facts and evidence. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #26
You with the Predictwise!! Herman4747 Mar 2016 #51
It is a dynamic market...It is not a static market. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #52
Divisive? Your beloved Hillary is just so enthralled to be Herman4747 Feb 2016 #9
Did the Reddit Bros send out a trolling party this week? LuvLoogie Feb 2016 #21
all are painfully aware fredamae Feb 2016 #8
I'm going to PROUDLY support whichever Democrat is the nominee. PeaceNikki Feb 2016 #13
That is wrong. We have one progressive and one corporate. I'll never vote GOP but HRC is terrible. Logical Feb 2016 #30
Well, we clearly disagree, but I won't call your opinion "BS". PeaceNikki Feb 2016 #35
You are correct. I will change it. nt Logical Feb 2016 #36
Thank you marions ghost Feb 2016 #50
In my curveball-plot one of those is vp HereSince1628 Feb 2016 #14
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #16
In answer to last question - "No!" (LOL!) Herman4747 Feb 2016 #22
Fortunately, weed's legal here in Oregon. Lizzie Poppet Feb 2016 #24
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #25
LOL, I have posted this many times. I will be drunk on election day! And take a Taxi to the polls. n Logical Feb 2016 #33
VERY unpleasant indeed! nt m-lekktor Feb 2016 #17
The most conservative president since Reagan ... earthside Feb 2016 #28
Easy choice for me and most Democrats and likely most Americans. DCBob Feb 2016 #31
Kick. GoneFishin Feb 2016 #32
Easy choice for me. Nt NCTraveler Feb 2016 #39

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
2. If you things are just hunky dory the way they stand, then by all means.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:12 AM
Feb 2016

If you see that things are pretty fucked up for the vast majority of people and think we need someone who might at least try and fix it or at least make the case- she's not the one to do it. She loves the system we got. And it loves her.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
11. Support for specific candidates can go in GD:P
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:19 AM
Feb 2016

In fact that may be the best place to hash out the differences. The Hillary and Bernie forums are for supporters only- and a lot of their purpose is to allow supporters a safe space for their discussions/views without having to get bombarded with comments from "the other side"

This is perfectly acceptable for this forum.

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
15. Sure. Just not the best place for it
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:21 AM
Feb 2016

The OP is either looking for confirmation or lashing out. That's best done in candidate specific groups. Unless, of course, the OP is looking for a brawl. Then that's what GDP has become. Fight club!

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
34. Ya stay in the candidate forums you're just preaching to the choir
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:39 AM
Feb 2016

I don't necessarily like the fight club feel of GD: P right now, but I would rather have discussions with people from the other "camp" (hopefully civil- it's to be strived for anyway) then place myself in a bubble. I know others feel different. I do post in the Bernie group, but I think it's good to have this place where the two camps mix and yeah, it's gonna get contentious but it's the best place for hashing out the differences. If I have a criticism/issue with a candidate- why do it in the one place his or her supporters are least likely to see it?

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
37. Let's agree on this point
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:42 AM
Feb 2016

GDPis a great place to DISCUSS differences between candidates. Agreed.

But we see a lot of "I'm disgusted by Hillary!" Posts. This isn't really setting up a discussion, is it?

I will agree that we see some of the same from both sides, but in this instance the OP is really nothing more than an angry tirade that does nothing for the overall conversation. It belongs in the Sanders forum because of that.

Just an observation

 

cwydro

(51,308 posts)
41. Obama didn't bring that hope and change, did he?
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:46 AM
Feb 2016

Hillary is the most qualified; she'll hit the ground running.

 

seattleite

(79 posts)
43. He sure didn't.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:54 AM
Feb 2016

He participated in the crooks' revolving door between Wall Street and the federal government (e.g. Timothy Geithner). Just like Hillary will.

 

CorkySt.Clair

(1,507 posts)
47. Obama has been a terrific president
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 12:03 PM
Feb 2016

Your line reeks of GOP snark I have heard many times over the last 8 years. You could not be more wrong about Obama. Get a clue.

 

Herman4747

(1,825 posts)
5. Excited about that 40% approval rating, are you?
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:13 AM
Feb 2016

And do please explain why that red arrow in the "H" points to the right -- I've never been able to get an answer yet. Is Hillary still a Goldwater Girl?

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
6. Very excited about her future in the whitehouse
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:14 AM
Feb 2016

She is clearly more popular among Dems than Bernie. So, yeah. I'm excited.

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
27. Clearly? Bullshit.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:34 AM
Feb 2016

All she's proven so far is that she can win a primary election is a state she's certain to lose in November, and a couple of dubiously-legit caucuses.

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
29. She is 3 for 4
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:35 AM
Feb 2016

Has a majority of Dem votes and is expected to win most races on Tuesday.

Yes, she is more popular among Dems. The results are clear.

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
44. Ah. You did
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:54 AM
Feb 2016

But the math shows that more Dems are excited by and supporting Hillary - primaries and caucuses. The caucuses are interesting because these are where exciting candidates should shine. They should get more supporters because those supporters are excited by the candidate. Interestingly, Hillary got more in the caucuses. One could make the observation, then, that Dems are more excited by Hillary given both the caucus and primary votes.

The results are rather clear. Dems are more excited by Hillary than by Bernie

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
45. I still say the results so far can't be assumed to be representative of the whole.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 12:01 PM
Feb 2016

I have no doubt that Democrats in states like South Carolina (and most of the ST states, which are also Southern). Those are conservative states, and even most Democrats in them tend to be more conservative. The more-conservative candidate will always do better in such states. But what about states that are actually possible for the Democrat to win? It's far from clear that Hillary is the preferred Dem there.

The front-loading of conservative states in the primaries creates a huge obstacle, in terms of momentum, for the more progressive candidate to overcome. It's a huge problem...unless you're part of the status-quo.

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
46. Well, those are Dems too
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 12:02 PM
Feb 2016

The Democratic Party is a big tent. There are lots of ideologies in it...not just progressive. I think that HIllary appeals to a wider swath of Dems, therefore, will win the primary.

Tuesday will be interesting

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
48. Sure, but as long as we have the (stupid and anachronistic) Electoral College...
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 12:06 PM
Feb 2016

...the votes of Democrats in deeply red states are utterly irrelevant in the GE. They're no more important to the result than GOP votes where I live (Oregon).

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
49. Such is our system
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 12:14 PM
Feb 2016

But even in the blue states there are many types of Dems. Purple states such as VA seem to prefer more moderate Dems. Hillarys appeal in these states to a larger section of a Dems and Indies is important

 

R. Daneel Olivaw

(12,606 posts)
38. Most people are party-blind or will be turned off by
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:43 AM
Feb 2016

the evasive abuela.

But good luck pushing Goldman's lady.

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
12. Same for us re: Bernie
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:19 AM
Feb 2016

He's so unexciting for me and many of us. The results indicate that. I'm not impressed that he can run the country. We also think his proposals are wildly unrealistic. So, not excited.

But I'm glad you are

(This was in response to #10 above)

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
26. Assertions unthethered from reality are never a substitute for facts and evidence.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:29 AM
Feb 2016
Enjoy believing your candidate is competitive in November while you can.



Assertions unthethered from reality are never a substitute for facts and evidence, ergo:



Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
[div class="excerpt]


.





Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf


http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

The predictions markets suggest she has a 62% chance of being the next president. That's substantially than her closest competitor.


The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null:



Trial-heat polls, hereafter simply referred to as polls, ask respondents for whom they
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf







 

Herman4747

(1,825 posts)
51. You with the Predictwise!!
Mon Mar 7, 2016, 10:47 AM
Mar 2016

I informed you about five weeks or so ago (I believe) that Predictwise is nonsense. There was a time around February 11th that your beloved Predictwise had Marco Rubio at 44% to win the Republican nomination; Ted Cruz at 3%. Anyone thinking logically about this for just a little while would know that the guys in Predictwise's betting markets don't know what they're doing. Which isn't surprising, since they are most likely a bunch of British fellows trying to wager a Euro or two just for fun on something they know little about.

Nowadays?? They have Ted Cruz at 16% and Marco Rubio at 8%.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
52. It is a dynamic market...It is not a static market.
Mon Mar 7, 2016, 10:52 AM
Mar 2016

That is why in most seven game series a team tied at 2-2 is valued at 50/50 and the team that wins game 5 is valued at 63/37 because their odds of them winning have just increased.

 

Herman4747

(1,825 posts)
9. Divisive? Your beloved Hillary is just so enthralled to be
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:17 AM
Feb 2016

next to The Donald. The gap between them, as you can see, is just so very small.

fredamae

(4,458 posts)
8. all are painfully aware
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:16 AM
Feb 2016

of the "drip-drip-drip" email scandal....with every "leak/news update" the situation worsens...in optics, ever warning of discovered security issues. So, timing is everything.....the GOP makes sure Sanders is defeated-HRC wins the nomination and then right before election day (between late August-end of Oct) she is indicted. What happens with her voters then? She already has a trust issue. What happens to Dem chances then?
Seriously-I see the GOP Structure in place for a scenario like this already.

PeaceNikki

(27,985 posts)
13. I'm going to PROUDLY support whichever Democrat is the nominee.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:20 AM
Feb 2016

We have two excellent candidates and I'm excited to vote for either in the GE.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
30. That is wrong. We have one progressive and one corporate. I'll never vote GOP but HRC is terrible.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:36 AM
Feb 2016

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
14. In my curveball-plot one of those is vp
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:21 AM
Feb 2016

for the other.

Trump is really a centrist with Jacksonian flaming rhetoric.

Response to Herman4747 (Original post)

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
24. Fortunately, weed's legal here in Oregon.
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:27 AM
Feb 2016

And we don't have polling places: 100% vote-by-mail for years.

Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #24)

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
33. LOL, I have posted this many times. I will be drunk on election day! And take a Taxi to the polls. n
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:37 AM
Feb 2016

earthside

(6,960 posts)
28. The most conservative president since Reagan ...
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 11:35 AM
Feb 2016

... if that is the choice we get in November ... Trump or Clinton.

Pick your one percenter, insider elitist.
No thank you.

Let's hope buyer's remorse sets in pretty soon for the minions of Clintonism.

We still have time to offer the nation a genuinely progressive presidential candidate.

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