"The effect race could have on the race"

Racial divisions will shape the Democratic results Super Tuesday. The party’s Southern flank, weak in November but important now, tends to be dominated by African Americans ... In contrast, Clinton did poorly in New Hampshire (94 percent white) and barely earned a tie in Iowa (92 percent white). Generally speaking, the whiter the state, the better things tend to appear for Sanders.

These patterns may well dominate Super Tuesday results. In Texas, Alabama, Georgia and, to a lesser extent, Virginia, minority voters could well propel the former secretary of state ... as Massachusetts (80 percent white), Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota (85 percent white) and Sanders’ home state of Vermont (95 percent white) seem most likely to end up “feeling the Bern.”

Less clear-cut is Colorado, which is 80 percent white but with a growing, predominately Democratic Latino population. Clinton may be damaged by the fact that the state is only 3.8 percent African American, with a large millennial population that trends toward Sanders. The Vermont democratic socialist may also do well in other such heavily white states as Kansas and Nebraska, each with populist histories and which hold their caucuses March 5, and he can be expected to win in Maine on March 6.... Already among millennials, Latinos and African American youth – to the consternation of their own racial establishments – are breaking the old racial bounds by joining their white counterparts in supporting Sanders. ... Race may play a large role in the next few weeks of voting but, ultimately, other factors – income, age, geography – will be more determinative of the outcome in November.