A little Electoral College handicapping (from my facebook page)

So some people have asked me in PMs about the election. Like I know. But here's my take: Obama has 237 EVs more or less locked up. The weakest O states in this category are PA and MI but Obama is still over a 9:1 favorite in both.

Obama is a 4:1 favorite in WI with 10 EVs. Romney feels that Ryan is a strength in WI but will he be enough? The auto industry plays big here -- not as big as MI and OH, but big enough I think. Obama is a 3:1 favorite in NH, with 4 EVs. I don't really see any reasonable scenario where O loses NH especially when you start to think about the effect of 3rd parties. That's 251. Or 247 without NH.

So that leaves 6 true battleground states which are (in order from most favorable for Obama to least): OH with 18 EVs where O is a 2:1 favorite; NV with 6 EVs where he is slightly less than 2:1; IA with 6 EVs where O is less than a 3:2 favorite; VA with 13 EVs which is a virtual tossup but leaning R at this point; CO with 9 EVs where O is a 2:3 dog; and FL with 29 EVs where O is a 3 to 7 dog.

The first thing is clear that Obama has bigger leads in his states, while Romney leads in bigger states. O leads in states totaling 30 EVs, while R leads in states totaling 50 EVs. On the other hand, O needs only 23 EVs to win, while R needs 58. If everyone holds where they are favored, O wins 280 to 258. This seems an unlikely result. And will certainly be unsatisfying for everyone with no clear mandate either way.

O can afford to lose NH plus either IA or NV and still hold 270. However, OH is absolutely critical for O (as are PA and MI and to a lesser extent WI). However, the results in these states are not independent -- if O loses PA or even MI, it's hard to see that he can win OH, for example. Similarly, difficult to imagine O losing WI and winning IA. On the other hand, perhaps some earthquake like event could ripple through the midwest while the sun shines on the south. So we could see O losing OH and IA because of some sudden weakness in manufacturing for example, while roaring through FL and VA because something energizes minority turnout in these states.

But in all the most likely scenarios, the President must hold OH. And IF the President holds OH, he needs just one more EV to win the election. That could come from NE, which last cycle awarded a vote to Obama. More likely, O carries NV with a strong showing among union employees and Latinos.

If O loses OH and FL, there are still paths to the win but they are tenuous. He would need to carry VA and any of IA, NV or CO or lose VA and sweep IA, NV and CO. I bring up these latter scenarios because there are rumblings about the fairness of the vote in OH left over from the 2004 election. If actual true votes are counted, it's hard to see OH falling to R while CO swings to O.

One thing to note is that most of the national and state polls are not overtly asking about 3rd party candidates and in VA and CO these candidates could play a role. Actually in VA there are two candidates from the right that could hurt R, Johnson and Goode. In CO, polling suggests that Johnson is poaching more Dems than Republicans because of his marijuana stance being popular among younger, more liberal voters.

So I am still calling it for O, but I am starting to wish that I had hedged my bet when I had the chance to buy R for 30%.