Chance of winning went from 67.9 to 66.1: less than 2 % and that even factored in the weird Mason-Dixon Florida poll. The Gallup number out today should start to show improvement because it will drop Thursday October 4 - the "Oh noes!!!!" day.

...but keep in mind that, judging by the changes in the average at the time, Thursday wasn't all that bad a day for Obama in Gallup (indeed, I think he held steady from the previous day). It was only on Friday that the bottom fell out for him, losing two points in the result announced Saturday morning.

Time to start treating this like a truly competitive race. Not a fluke that wil fade any second now.

That means a huge personal GOTV effort by all of us. If you live in deep red/blue states... Make friends with people in Ohio.

the Biden Bump is coming.

Romney is still ahead in Gallup, and is trading leads with Obama in Rasmussen.

Until Obama starts moving up in Gallup or we get some new national polls from other pollsters (Eg. CNN, PPP, Pew, Ipsos etc.), it is way too soon to celebrate.

Btw, I think OHIO Early Voting ends at 5:00 PM today. So get out the word to everyone you know in Ohio to vote!!!!

Why would early voting in OH end today?

That's what I read on the Obama Twitter Account.

They were encouraging people to get there before it closes at 5:00 PM.

Early Voting
In Ohio, you don’t have to wait until Election Day—you can vote early.

Early in-person vote hours are October 2nd-November 2nd, Monday-Friday, at the following times:

Oct. 2nd – Oct. 19th: 8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Oct. 22nd - Nov. 1st: 8:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m.
Nov. 2nd: 8:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.

Early voting may be available the last three days prior to Election Day. Check back soon or call your county's Board of Elections for more information.
WHAT TO BRING TO VOTE EARLY

If you’ve voted in a federal election in Ohio before, all you need to vote early are the last four digits of your social security number.

If you are a first time voter, bring any ONE of the following forms of identification:

Your current and valid Ohio driver’s license or ID card
Your current and valid Military ID
Copy of a recent utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, or other government document that shows your name and current address

Note: All voters in line when the early vote site closes may cast a ballot.
VOTE BY MAIL

You can also vote early by mail in Ohio. You can request a ballot any time from now until noon on November 3rd.

Once you receive your ballot, be sure to follow the instructions—and don’t forget to sign the identification envelope. Leave the stub attached to the ballot; do not rip it off.

Be sure to mail your ballot back to your county’s Board of Elections with the correct amount of postage. Most counties require more than one stamp. Vote by mail ballots must be postmarked no later than November 5th.

NOTE: Once you request a mail ballot, you have to vote with that ballot. If you request a ballot, and then try to vote in person, you will have to vote by provisional ballot.

they are all from 10-11 and earlier.

Today is 10-12. Today is the marker for the "Biden Bump".

He ran even in the polls against a generic Republican for the most part, and Romney was always the GOP's most sensible candidate to beat President Obama. Had it not been for his inept campaign and gaffes, Romney would not have been below 47 to 48% in the polls at all.

There are very few undecided voters, which is why the wild poll swings are probably due to fluctuating enthusiasm on both sides. It comes down to turnout, period.

The nation is evenly divided. Obama's '08 message has met with reality, unfairly or not. So while I expect an Obama win in both EV and popular vote, it will be close.

Now that is in question.

Big difference.

Take into account the economy, not to mention the racism. It was always gonna be a close election.

I think the Obama campaign knew very well that they needed to retain their firewall, which is why the bulk of their efforts concentrated on those particular states. I don't see them losing Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, or Iowa. A couple of days ago I would have said they hold FL and VA, too. Not so sure now about either of them.

I honestly think the polls would have tightened regardless of how the President performed in the debate. Nothing but a blowout (which was never going to happen) would have kept Romney from consolidating and shoring up his support. His base came home, and the right leaning undecideds were looking for a reason to come into his fold. They were not going to vote for Obama anyway. Sure, they might have stayed home, but never vote for the President.

So what I'm saying still holds true. It comes down to who will actually vote, and this is why the ground game, and raising our enthusiasm level are so important.

I predict 332.

Wait - didn't you say you've worked on campaigns? How can you have worked for campaigns and be so anxious about the election. This should be same ol same ol for you.

In the post you are responding to I said that Obama was winning well over 300 EV last week, and now he has fallen under 300. That's what most models are also showing right now, including Nate Silver's.

Once Obama calls out this liar.

Polls that came out today are still reflected pre-debate numbers which show Romney flatlined
before the debate, with maybe a 1 pt. "lead" depending on which poll you look at.

Later tonight and tomorrow we'll see numbers moving.

those favorable swing state polls from CBS AND NBC earlier this week came out literally in the middle of the night. No one has been talking about them at ALL. But lo and behold the national numbers were out first thing in the morning.

otherwise, we have a clear argument that pollsters are
manufacturing the appearance of a "surge" for romney.
RCP has been very selective in how they drop polls from
their top poll averages. they kicked one gallup poll out
and then pulled it back in the next day because it was
better for romney. it made no sense at all.

What was suspicious about the CBS and NBC polls being released overnight? They often come out early in the morning, don't they?

They were reported on the early morning websites and news that day. I don't think they were hidden. I remember we were up here talking about them at the time.

The reality is that people dont vote based on a VP debate. Quayle was CRUSHED in 1988. It made no difference in the polls. Bush-Quayle still won 40 of 50 states.

Also significantly less people watched the VP debate compared to the Presidential debate a week earlier.

There is a reason people call the VP debate a "sideshow."

welcome to DU

No pres w/ 50% approval loses. No Republican win w/o Ohio... I could go on if you like.

People don't go to the polls and vote for someone because of the VP pick. That's not what moves an undecided voter.

I don't blame you, I can't fathom why Romney is winning - all because of that debate?

Still Nate Silver has a proven success rate, and being so dismissive seems...less than healthy.

everyone else has. 10 days ago proven success rate had Obama at a lock. 10 days from now
who knows.

But don't dismiss Silver. If you're correct, and a debate can change the balance of power in an election, change the momentum, even the outcome, and Obama walks into the next debate channeling the best of Clinton and Biden and wins it, then Nate Silver's earlier prediction would be found to be very accurate. Obama's support returns, Silver was right all along.

Game changers happen. Do you doubt?

The numbers will change one way or the other and Nate will crunch them that is not swaying in the wind it's analysis there is no reason to belittle him because you don't like the numbers.

None of the polls released yet except for Ipsos/Reuters have any data from after the debate -- and that one only has it for about 1/8th of its polling period (and, for what it's worth, that poll had Obama picking up two points over the day before, a pretty large gain for a four-day tracker).

Besides, saying that a VP debate never matters is inaccurate (Bush Sr. demolishing Ferarro in 1984 helped turn the tide for Reagan after his poor first debate against Mondale) and irrelevant. It's no different from saying a debate victory for a challenger never brought him from more than 2.2 points behind to take the lead. Never? Well,as we all learned this week to our chagrin, there's always a first time for everything.

tomorrow we'll see numbers reflecting the Biden Bounce and some polls rolling off the weekly average that included better numbers for romney. it is going to be a fun day heading toward the second debate!

the headlines can lie, but the size of the crowds at the President's rallies, Bill Clinton's rallies, and Joe Biden's rallies DON'T LIE. Romney cannot compete. Romney may have gotten more money in donations, thanks to rich sugar daddies. But the President has had more individual donations.

ALL of those people who donated money will come out to vote.
ALL of those people in those LARGE RALLY CROWDS will come out to vote.

Romney does not have the bodies. He only has the mormons and a bunch
of their tithing money.

I am invariably blown away whenever I see photos of an Obama campaign event. People just go crazy over him. The polls be damned--I'll trust my own two eyes over 'the numbers' any day!

.

Most people don't care to rally around any politician. You don't win elections based on who draws a big crowd. If that was the case, Sarah Palin would be the GOP nominee.

Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 06:29 PM - Edit history (1)

And by the way, I didn't use the phrase "those people". So why you went there....

Anyway, I said what I mean. The vast majority of voters in this country will not go to a rally to see ANY politician, Republican or Democrat. The idea of cheering on a politician is a foreign concept to a lot of people that reeks of some sort of fascist group think. Huge crowds are great, but 20,000 by themselves don't win an election. It's more important to get down on the ground and knock on doors and make phone calls. The rallies should only serve as a jumping off point to motivate everyone in that crowd to go out and phone bank and door knock, as well as work at the polls. Large crowds are essentially "preaching to the choir". What scares me is that there are people who will show up to say they saw the President, and then won't bother to go vote.

and reality re-emerges. But they still have two more catapult opportunities so we're not out of the woods yet.

Romney is going to put every ounce of his bullsh*tting skill into it. These guys have studies O and Biden. Ryan's car accident bait show how low they will go. Expect some serious racist dog whistles and I bet money Romney will switch gears from aggression to empathy - he's going to double down on Ryan's anecdotal style and try to paint Obama as a good man but over his head.

Honestly I am really curious how Obama is going to tackle this. They only way I see is to double down on populism and go full bore like Biden, but that's not his strong point.

The ratings are going to be through the roof on this one.

and we all know how poorly romney does with interacting with everyday people.

and if one of those everyday people isn't a pre-approved romney supporter and
has AN ACTUAL QUESTION instead of a softball, it will throw romney off his game.

unlike president obama, romney has NO experience at town halls where he takes
questions from NON-PRESCREENED constituents. Everything Romney does on
the campaign trail is scripted because he cannot think on his feet.

I know I read that somewhere this week.

CELEBRATE!

romney's "bounce" was gone before the VP debate.

The Biden Bounce will be quite visible tomorrow. It has already started to show this
weekend, but since Oct 5 - 11 are still counted in the averages, it's not as easy
to see. But make no mistake. It is there, breathing down Romney's neck,
about to chomp.

and combined with consumer confidence reported at near a 5 year high
as well as the new news expected today regarding sales numbers in september
will give President Obama some strong wind at his back for tomorrow.