2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTwo brand spanking new national polls show HRC with a commanding lead - 55-38 and 55- 37
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/29/politics/trump-clinton-dominant-as-super-tuesday-looms/index.html
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-23910
LexVegas
(6,098 posts)Response to LexVegas (Reply #1)
Bubzer This message was self-deleted by its author.
NaturalHigh
(12,778 posts)Feel the Bern!
Stallion
(6,476 posts)for tomorrow nite
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... a few costly mistakes and missteps that his campaign made. It's much too late to recover from now.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)definitely does not represent a fat lady.
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)But well done.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)We'll wait for the curtain to fall, but it will fall.
George II
(67,782 posts)...with older voters. And by "older", I mean ~ 35 years old an up, which comprises about 2/3 of the electorate.
Saturday turnout among those 29 and younger (Sanders' only "winning" age group) was 15%, turnout among those 65 and older was 19%.
getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)We need those younger voters "in the system". I applaud him for engaging and enraging them. They will stick around. They will keep voting.
They may turn off this cycle (but hopefully not when they see trump), but they will stay involved. Sooner or later they will be over 35 also. It happens to the best of us.
George II
(67,782 posts).........to win an election they have to get out and vote. They have to do more than attend rallies and support Sanders online. That didn't happen in SC, and it looks like it will not happen in many other states, either.
getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)How many under 25 y.o. white liberals do you think are in sc? He did get a portion of the black youth, but the overall issues with race worked against him even with them.
I don't think it's all that glum. There just aren't enough votes in a single block to carry a national election, let alone a primary apparently.
You need broad support, in states with very diverse populations, to win the electoral college. A youth vote alone isn't going to put anyone over the top in FL, OH, PA, NC, or any other swing state.
So all I'm saying is give the bern his credit where its due. He just won't succeed in the primaries, and if H were gunned down tomorrow, he wouldn't win the general.
George II
(67,782 posts)getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)I said he did well with them but not as well as with the white youth. With the black youth, he still had some race barriers he didn't climb well enough apparently.
His sweet spot is with young white uber-liberals. There just aren't a lot of them in sc compared to other states. SC is generally more conservative to boot.
Now WI, or MN, and it's a different game. If the WI bernie voters would just turn out to vote against walker and his cronies, it will all be worthwhile.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)rtracey
(2,062 posts)The point I made in an earlier post was this.... Where were the younger supporters for Bernie. Where were the Clemson, Trident, U of SC (all 8 branches), College of Charleston, Citidel, MUSC..... These students showed at the rallies, but did not show at the polls. Same with Trump... he captures the racist, cretin vote, but the establishment GOP voters are not showing up because
1. Bush is not in it anymore
2. They hate Trump as much, maybe more then democrats
3. They know once Trump is in, their party becomes the No-Nothing party.
getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)I don't know if it was significant issue or not, but SC has a voter id requirement. You need either a state drivers license (or some other form of resident only ifd), or a voter id. To get a voter id, you have to show residency.
Not huge barriers but greater than just signing a form and submitting it. It's possible a lot of those students just voted absentee in their home states. That is what my daughter is doing; she goes to college in NY, but voted by absentee ballot in MA (for bernie though).
Response to George II (Reply #13)
Post removed
Logical
(22,457 posts)Indeed!
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)On Mon Feb 29, 2016, 09:43 AM an alert was sent on the following post:
it's all the fault of Berniebros
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1370379
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
ALERTER'S COMMENTS
Once again, a total insult of Bernie supporters!
JURY RESULTS
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Mon Feb 29, 2016, 10:03 AM, and the Jury voted 4-3 to HIDE IT.
Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
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Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I support Bernie Sanders, I believe "BernieBros" is a complete myth. I believe the same thing was done to Obama in 08. I think the post is dumb, but it is an opinion on an opinion site that offends me, but ignorance simply does not hurt my feelings, its not over the top and it isn't rude. Let it stand so this persons free speech will tag them as...
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
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Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Hypocrisy at it's finest...
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: nasty
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Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)livetohike
(22,163 posts)👍
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)We now know Bernie, and we choose Hillary.
Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)Bernie had some momentum and was banking so much on winning Nevada and when he lost he was rather stunned. Then his defeat in SC was simply demoralizing.
Looks like the gimme free stuff campaign has taken a hit and Hillarys message of practically and leadership has taken hold.
Pour it on, baby!!!
tom_kelly
(962 posts)just like the Republicans I've been dealing with over the last 8 years with your "gimme free stuff" reference.
liberal N proud
(60,346 posts)Interesting observation.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)You mean like Hillary's outreaching hand to big banks & Wall Street?
It's cute you channeled your inner Ron Paul though. We see you.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)and two territories (Guam and Americans Abroad).
And such an insurmountable lead.
Bernie supporters should just give up, and vote for Hillary!
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)It's becoming increasingly likely that the only state he'll win going forward is his home state of Vermont.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)As Hillary wins more primaries and Sanders wins few (VT, maybe Mass, maybe W. Va), it comes down to a simple issue of numbers. She's going to take 10 of 12 tomorrow, so to really catch up, Sanders has to win and win big in several places. 52-48s won't cut it so predict for us a large-primary state or two where Sanders can pull down a 60-40.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)The cartoon is in the Bernie Sanders group this morning.
There is no way she is going to continue on like this.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Or we can talk about this:
vs this
getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)They vote tomorrow. Is there another clump of americans abroad? I would think it's more than two territories. Puerto Rico isn't lumped into americans abroad, no?
Just curious......
Back to bickering.
getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)There are 50 states, the District of Columbia, plus 5 territories. I think combined the 5 territories have over 75 delegates, or something like that.
Sancho
(9,070 posts)oasis
(49,408 posts)But I'll be watching for the demolition.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)All polls show her losing to a Republican challenger. Fastest way to President Rubio is to nominate Hillary. You can thanks her numbers which are tanked for trust & enthusiasm.
oasis
(49,408 posts)Pick your poison.
Gothmog
(145,567 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)than actually doing something.
sad.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)of an attack line and are tiring of it.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Bernie has MUCH more to offer and has said so all along the way.
raouldukelives
(5,178 posts)Are not invested in Wall St. It has very little to do with whom one votes for and all to do with whom one is a booster for.
As we can plainly see today. There is nobody with money in Wall St who isn't a Republican fundraiser.
Some take the idea of justice and liberty for all seriously, some don't. In between, is our democracy.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Tomorrow is going to be fun.
Sid
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Historic NY
(37,453 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its all Hillary from here!
krawhitham
(4,647 posts)Once she is indicted I assume things will change
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Baadger
(56 posts)About 74 percent would back Sanders as the Democratic nominee, with 41 percent "definitely" supporting him and 33 percent "probably" supporting him.
Roughly 65 percent would rally around Clinton, meanwhile, with 36 percent "definitely" supporting her and 29 percent "probably" supporting her.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Res ipsa loquitur
International on February 24 - 27, 2016. The margin of sampling error for
results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The sample also includes 920 interviews among registered voters (plus or
minus 3 percentage points).
This sample includes 600 interviews among landline respondents and 401
interviews among cell phone respondents.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)Population 2,000 Adults
Margin of Error ±2.8 percentage points
Polling Method Internet
Source YouGov/Economist
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-23910
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)The CNN poll is a conventional landline/cell phone poll. The yougov poll is a a rolling internet sample, with weighting and controls, designed to approximate a conventional random sample poll. If you can't distinguish between the two polls I cited and an opt in internet poll with no controls I apologize in advance for an educational system that failed you.
Patronizing me wasn't such a smart tactic, azunoir, am I right?
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)of both parties BTW not to worry Hillary will get her turn just like Kerry and DuKakis did
12. If Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Partys nomination for the presidency, would you definitely
support her in the general election in November, probably support her, probably NOT support her, or
definitely NOT support her in the general election in November?
Feb. 24-27
2016
Definitely support her 36%
Probably support her 29%
Probably not support her 13%
Definitely not support her 20%
No opinion 2%
BASED ON 286 DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANING VOTERS NOT SUPPORTING BERNIE
SANDERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS.
13. If Bernie Sanders won the Democratic Partys nomination for the presidency, would you definitely
support him in the general election in November, probably support him, probably NOT support him,
or definitely NOT support him in the general election in November?
Feb. 24-27
2016
Definitely support him 41%
Probably support him 33%
Probably not support him 18%
Definitely not support him 6%
No opinion 2%
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)From the poster who started who started our têteàtête by laughing at me:
-azunoir
View profile
of both parties BTW
-azunoir
Yes, they polled a sample of American and then broke them down into groups.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)If you can not distinguish between a rolling internet poll that is weighted and controlled to approximate a random sample, ergo:
How does YouGov conduct Public Opinion research?
YouGov conducts its public opinion surveys online using something called Active Sampling for the overwhelming majority of its commercial work, including all nationally and regionally representative research. The emphasis is always on the quality of the sample, rather than the quantity of respondents.
When using Active Sampling, restrictions are put in place to ensure that only the people contacted are allowed to participate. This means that all the respondents who complete YouGov surveys will have been selected by YouGov, from our panel of registered users, and only those who are selected from this panel are allowed to take part in the survey.
Who takes part in Public Opinion research?
... Panel members are recruited from a host of different sources, including via standard advertising, and strategic partnerships with a broad range of websites.
When a new panel member is recruited, a host of socio-demographic information is recorded. For nationally representative samples, YouGov draws a sub-sample of the panel that is representative of British adults in terms of age, gender, social class and type of newspaper (upmarket, mid-market, red-top, no newspaper), and invites this sub-sample to complete a survey.
To reiterate, with Active Sampling only this sub-sample has access to the questionnaire via their username and password, and respondents can only ever answer each survey once.
Once the survey is complete, the final data are then statistically weighted to the national profile of all adults aged 18+ (including people without internet access). All reputable research agencies weight data as a fine-tuning measure and at YouGov we weight by age, gender, social class, region, level of education, how respondents voted at the previous election and level of political interest. Targets for the weighted data are derived from four sources:
How is the data analysed?
Once the survey is complete, the final data are then statistically weighted to the national profile of all adults aged 18+ (including people without internet access). All reputable research agencies weight data as a fine-tuning measure and at YouGov we weight by age, gender, social class, region, party identity and the readership of individual newspapers. Targets for the weighted data are derived from three sources:
https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/
The census
and an opt in poll there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of this notion.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Is there a difference or is there not a difference between a rolling sample internet poll that is controlled and weighted to the census and a simple opt in internet poll with no controls?
Thank you in advance.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)Thanks for the heads-up.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)It's all over.
Hillary won.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)figure out which nitwits are voting for Trump or Cruz, other than that it's a waste of time.
The numbers are in for the Dems.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Might I suggest you head in and vote for him. Increasing his vote count helps more than you know. Him have the strongest showing possible helps more than you know. Our party would be further left today if Kucinich would have had support in the way Sanders does today. It is about more than today. It is about strength in the future. While I want Clinton to win decisively, I do want Sanders to have a good showing. If Sanders weren't my only other option, I would be very willing to vote for a candidate more left of Clinton. Lets give them a reason to enter the primary in eight years.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It's clear she learned a lot from her '08 campaign. Work relentlessly for every left leaning vote.
andrewv1
(168 posts)We already know how Bernie does, so I am sure we're not going to see those polls here.
And even if Hillary is not recommended for indictments, why would Democrats come out in November to vote for a person that is perceived by many as a Republican Lite?
You kinda have to distinguish yourself from the other guy....
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)(2) This will be made easier if Trump wins the nomination and run at the head of the angry old white racist party, or of Republicans, who are scared shitess that a Trump run means they loose big on down ticket records and dump him, which alienates about 25% of the Republican Electorate.
(3) Those of us who prefer not to have Trump will GOTV for her.
andrewv1
(168 posts)Again, this a characteristic of a Republican voter & unfortunately some HRC supporters too.
That's a big gamble come November....
getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)If it comes down to it, would you vote for trump or hillary? "Neither" is still a vote for trump.
Is seeing sstubby fingers don with the launch codes and at least 3 scotus nominations not a scary thought?
How is that a republican thing?
Btw, if it were bernie or trump, I'd vote for bernie in a heartbeat even though I don't believe he would be a good president. Head and shoulders better than trump though.
Sometimes, you have to vote for who you have, not who you want.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)corporate shill, republican lite that you will have to defend, even though she doesn't truly reflect Democratic progressive values? Now who is the fool... If you vote her you must support her, do you even know what the next 4-8 years is going to mean in this country... there are tipping points that are being topped at this very moment.
getagrip_already
(14,838 posts)on what being a representative of the dem party entails, malfoy.
I think you are being irrational personally. Not a single thing you have said is true, but hey, you can yell them all you want.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)Goldman transcripts, enlighten us please...
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)They prefer her to Sanders and like her.
And to pretend that there is no difference between a Republican Administration and a Democratic Administration is disingenuous at best.
Trumps huge negatives offend critical Democratic Constituencies. Those Constituencies like Clinton and when they compare those two candidates will vote for the best, Clinton.
Even the Republican Establishment are frightened he will desultory their chance at down ticket races and are looking for ways to stop him.
Since most Democrats are not going to quake at fear at being told, repeatedly, that Sanders folk will never vote for Clinton so we had better vote for him or they will throw the race to Trump, Trump isn't going to scare them either.
Finally GOTV.
andrewv1
(168 posts)With an unfavorable rating of almost 60% among eligible voters in the General Election, you're not going to win.
Also, you will not be bringing out young voters which Bernie has done so well with.
But most of all though, you just won't have the enthusiasm factor to bring the general voting population out except on the other side.
She might "clean up" tomorrow, but barring a manipulation of the ballots or the other candidate self-exploding, she will be she will be "Toast" in November.
The Democratic Establishment is committing suicide if they bring her out of Philly as the nominee.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)in the General Election at all. That is their choice.
I know several who support Sanders, and the ones I know will vote for a the nominee in the General Election. They may not agree with most of their generation. We have a government elected by the majority who participate. Those who do not participate don't care to make their voices heard.
I am tried of Sanders supporters holding Trump or another Republican to my head and saying, we will pull the trigger if you don't support Bernie. I will vote for a government in November that I have determined will fight protect the rights we have, and work to expand them within the constraints of our system. You are free to vote as you wish.
andrewv1
(168 posts)for a Mondale or Dukakis & knowing the outcome, I still voted for them because they had some morals & principles.
Unfortunately I don't believe Clinton has them.
I also find myself comparing her & Trump & outside of his Racist BS, he's not that far off from her on issues.
That's very scary & that's going to be a major problem in November.
Granted, she can change her views very quickly "on the fly," but the perception of her is already ingrained in most people's minds.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)And as to Trumps ideas of policy, he is not the one who would write legislation. That would be the Republican Congress and the Republican Senate. The question isn't what he would write but what he would sign. He would find Republicans and Conservatives to find Supreme Court Justices he would appoint.
And as to his Racist Bullshit, that is the reason why he should never receive any votes from anyone on the left. Those who do are as racist as he is.
I will vote for Clinton. If people vote against, everyone of them will get exactly what they deserve.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)on the right will rally to Trump, in fact many are equating him to the next Ronnie. Hillary v Trump is a lock for trump especially once he makes sure her Goldman transcripts are made public then who runs the risk of anger loosing down ticket races and alienating a great portion of the electorate... Those of us who prefer Bernie would just like to have an honest Democratic candidate, Hillary is a liar and doesn't represent liberal values.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Thanks, and we will not be bullied by those who say that if we don't support Sanders, they will make us suffer under Trump.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)to describe her... She is the most dishonest candidate running, well let me restate she is about as honest as Trump. This is not bullying it is enlightening. I am always open for discussion on the merits, so when you find your candidates Goldman transcripts please enlighten the rest of us, since somehow you have fallen for believing she is on our side.....
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)That's Ok.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)with no substance, no admittance and that's ok too... .goodnight...
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)For better or for worse, the Bernie supporters on DU represent the fire and brimstone segment of the Bernie demographic. Their intent is set in stone. But, historically people change their allegiance quickly once the likely winning candidate begins to emerge. Exclusive of the Bernie supporters on DU, many other Bernie supporters will peel off towards Hillary at an exponential rate.
andrewv1
(168 posts)I have not missed voting Democratic in a Presidential Election in over Forty Years.
But if Clinton is the nominee, I will for the first "sit it out" because there's no way I am going to vote for a Closet Republican Neocon.
Also, I have several strong Democratic friends who are more adamant then I am & are looking at other possible options if Bernie is not our Nominee.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)The purity police here might not, but they are a very small number.
andrewv1
(168 posts)A good many of these people have not cared for Clinton in the past & will not now.
I do believe Bernie will be the Democratic Nominee so this is not going to even matter, but I have
no problem voting for an alternative such as Warren, Biden, Gore or others.
But Hillary? No Thanks.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)and welcome to president trump.the bubble effect of clinton supporters ignore the fact high probality she will lose.but,then again mor eimportant for clinton supporters to bash all those who don't worship clinton.
Bernie supporters who have been called racist,sexist,and tea party are just going to vote for canidate who has bashed everything
bernie was for.yeah right.back in 2008 17% of clinton supporters voted for mccain in end.some bernie supporters will stay home,vote third party or vote for trump.I don't advocate voting for trump.both he and clinton are evil in my book.But,some will do
it.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)If our nominee, be it Hillary or Bernie, can't beat a bigoted carnival barker like Trump who even refuses to disavow David Duke and the KKK, then we have bigger problems in this country than the Hillary-Bernie feud. I have confidence in the American people. They will not elect a fool like Trump.
andrewv1
(168 posts)It's very simple in that a Candidate that comes with a semi-load of past baggage plus a 59%
unfavorable rating does not distinguish herself from a Trump....
And guess what side will bring their rabid voters out if that's the case?
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)If you're right about Hillary, what does that say about your candidate who is losing to her ? Also, if you don't think that Republicans won't be motivated to vote to prevent a Socialist from reshaping the Supreme Court, then you know nothing about the Republican Party.
andrewv1
(168 posts)is they want to concentrate on Bernie, Trump, etc. & never on their candidate.
First of all, the MSM is "putting an air pump up people's asses" in that Hillary is now the nominee with barely any of the primaries even voting yet.
So then, let's look at the facts:
1. Iowa-basically tied even with questionable tactics from the State Democratic Chairwoman refusing to count the votes.
2. NH-A blowout in which even woman voters rejected Hillary.
3. NV-very close with a 700 vote difference in spite of Harry Reid coming in to rig the vote.
4. SC-a Deep South state with very low turnout this time around which hasn't gone Democratic in a GE since 1976.
Does that seem like the race is over?
Again though, HRC Supporters need to look at their own Candidate & face some realities.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)history proves this.keep attacking bernie supporters daily like you are and it becomes even more likely.dems aren't like republicans.they don't just fall into line.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)I'm a pragmatist. Either of our candidates will beat Trump. The country will not elect him. Only we can screw up the gift of Trump.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)I live in reality.that is why after seeing what went down in iow and nevada i said caucus states are likely fixed for her and why after sc i said likely over since black vote mostly in tank for her.
I won't put my head in the sand about the clinton record.I turn 42 in march so i can remember their record easilyIt's been on the issues i have been against her.I also say bernie losing means his message has been defeated and will be ignored.
People underestimate trump at their preil.noone thought he would get this far.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)The Republicans are in a panic that Trump is on the precipice of the Republican nomination. Republicans do no share your outlook on Trump's chances. I don't believe that I discount Trump at my own peril. I know viscerally in my gut that this country WILL NOT ELECT a man that has spent the past few months spewing bigoted rants and offering no solutions. The whole Republican primary has melted down into a circus. ALL WE NEED TO DO IS RESPECT THE OUTCOME OF OUR PRIMARY.
Laser102
(816 posts)humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)after her Goldman transcripts are made public >? It really is the premiere issue that separates her and Bernie, her not releasing them runs the risk of cementing her in the minds of many Democratic voters as an untrustworthy corporate shill..... So let's all work together to have her release them now so we can air this out... Nothing would be worse then Trump releasing them in the GE and the DNC and Hillary groups telling Bernie supporters that we must defend her.... sorry but imagine is you Hill supporters had to swallow something like that...
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)than they actually do.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)were released, and makes one wonder why she wouldn't, transparency and all... but if they were released she would lose the nomination.... clearly they show her yucking it up with Wall Street fatcats... She could never be trusted to change anything and it would clearly illuminate the case for a Bernie Sanders nominee... .So yes those transcripts carry significant importance to a large portion maybe not majority but how the heck is she going to unite the party after those things come out? Please enlighten me....
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)where she seriously thought she'd win it until the last moment some people forget things ignoring the super delegate count it was only 51 % to 49 % imagine that with hillary in play she always seems to split the vote well if people loved how Bush ran things fine but I didn't..
Bad Dog
(2,025 posts)All that matters is that they can beat the Republican. So far Clinton is still the favourite, but Trump is in second place and the odds on him are shortening all the time.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Last edited Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:53 PM - Edit history (1)
As he becomes more likely to be the nominee. Remember, they're weighting odds of two events to win the GE: odds of being that party's nominee and then odds of that translating into a GE win. As his odds of winning the nomination go up, his odds at the GE go up.
It is analog. Eventually it will just be the odds of the Democratic nominee winning vs the odds of the Republican nominee winning.
Bad Dog
(2,025 posts)It's not just a case of the two potential party nominees coming closer, if that was the case Rubio wouldn't be on 9/1 and Sanders 25/1. The good thing is that Cruz, (who is even more obnoxious than Trump,) is on 100/1 behind Michael Bloomburg.
Trump started off as a joke, he's not a joke any more.
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
jalan48
(13,886 posts)BainsBane
(53,072 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Haven't heard this in a long time.