If the republicans were more "fired up", it is thought that they would be more likely to call pollsters back and if the dems were all depressed, as we saw here all week, they would be less inclined to make the call.

because of Romney's performance in the debate.So now that most democrats loved Biden in the debate I want to see if the pollsters are going to reflect that

If you look at the national polls, even when they show Romney in the lead among LV, they will virtually all show Obama leading among RV. (The worst, the Pew poll showing R+4 LV, was actually tied at 46 among RV.) What much of the "Romney surge" has really been about was an enthusiasm boost among Republicans, making them more likely to vote, and a similar depression among Democrats, making them less likely to go to the polls. While Biden's win is probably unlikely to push many undecideds into the D column, or depress Republican enthusiasm, it should fire up Democrats to some degree, and move some of them into the LV column. We shall see over the next few days.

uninspired Dems are less likely to make it past the LV screens. inspired and fired up Dems are more likely to make it past the LV screens.

Only polls made after the jobs report released in October 5th are useful. The ones before the jobs report left out its impact.

Good thinking.

The polls are not likely to move all that much because the debate was to fire up the fairweather base and change the narrative. What we SHOULD be paying attention to is where the GOP polls are focusing on vs. other polls. Notice FL is suddenly 'surging', starting earlier this week w/ Suffolk writing it off (to the disgust of other professional pollsters). That's important because Romney needs FL just to stay in the game. So I wouldn't say ingnore any polling today, just put them in their right context. We are in major mindf*ck territory now (just like Ryan's car crash bullshit move on Biden last night, remember? asshole) and the GOP is going to make it seem like Romney is on the move.

Vice-Presidential debates don't normally affect the race that much, and if they do it's rarely more than a few points.

While Biden did well, remember that the media is trying to portray it as a draw in some quarters (eg. CNN).

We'll see what the public says, but I don't expect much increase for Obama. The public is waiting for OBAMA to do well in a debate.

THAT is what could move the polls.

Should be better numbers for Obama

A handful still have the Friday sample on there.

Which is why Obama is down in LV. But he's up 2 in RV

The most recent sampling replaces last Thursday (thought to be a very good day for Romney) with sampling from yesterday.

Romney moving up a point means that last night's sample was no better for us than the first post-debate data.

Of course, we should always allow for large daily fluctuations that could just be a fluke, but tomorrow will tell the tale as the first post-vp-debate data replaces what was thought to be Romney's best single day. We need a fairly substantial move.

There's going to be lots of news out over the next few weeks. We can't afford to wait a full week before polls "count" again.

They aren't "useless"... they're just of less use than they would otherwise be.

They, for instance, still allow us to look back and evaluate whether people were correct when they claimed that the "bounce" was just a Th/Fr thing and that everything was back to normal in the weekend sampling. No polls out now include Th sampling and few of them have Fr left on the line but there's still about a 4-point impact from the debate. Ok... so we know that hope was misplaced.

I would further caution putting too much faith in even a win at the VP debate. They rarely make much difference. My hope is that it essentially stops the bleeding at this (essentially tied) point and allows the president to reload for next week.

THEN we watch for movement.