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book_worm

(15,951 posts)
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:12 PM Feb 2016

Good analysis by Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos

•Don’t be a dick! If you are a Hillary Clinton person, you want to spike that football, but we need to stick together to win the all-important general election. Never let go of the big picture.

•On the flip side, if you think Clinton can’t win against Donald Trump, you are a fucking moron. Seriously, you are as dumb as rocks. “But!” you yell, “Her unfavorables are 54 percent!” Yes, they are! But a big chunk of that is Sanders supporters. Check out the chart below: see that inflection point when Clinton’s unfavorables overtook her favorables? That was April 2015. You know what month Bernie Sanders entered the campaign? April 2015. Most will come home after Sanders bows out.

•Next up, you can’t argue 54 percent unfavorables makes her unelectable while claiming that Donald Trump can win with unfavorables of 58 percent.

•Saturday we all saw what the “demographic ceiling” looks like, and for Bernie Sanders, it wasn’t pretty. Iowa was all white, and the candidates effectively tied. New Hampshire was all white, and Bernie Sanders won big. But it’s been downhill for Bernie as the states have gotten browner—first Nevada, and now the South Carolina near-50-point blowout

•You know who did turn out given the opportunity? African Americans in South Carolina. That’s the Trump effect. So yeah, white Bernie Sanders supporters might not be feeling the Clinton, but that’s because you don’t have Donald Trump challenging your very right to exist. If you are a Sanders supporter and can’t understand that, perhaps that’s why you weren’t able to help expand Sanders’ support beyond his white base.

•So what is Sanders’ deadline to show real results? Not this Tuesday, but by March 15. By then, the states of Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina will have voted. Right now, Clinton has big leads in all of them (where polling is available). If Sanders can’t win a significant chunk of those, then it’s over. Winning the Maine and/or Nebraska caucuses aren’t a viable counterbalance.

Much more right here:
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/29/1492734/-Democrats-South-Carolina-and-wrapping-up-our-primary-season

54 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Good analysis by Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos (Original Post) book_worm Feb 2016 OP
Nothing 'good' about 'Don’t be a dick! elleng Feb 2016 #1
I'll agree he was very pointed book_worm Feb 2016 #4
He was vulgar. 'Pointed' is fine. elleng Feb 2016 #6
he's never been the nicest guy in the world. Just sayin' wyldwolf Feb 2016 #17
I've never followed him closely, elleng Feb 2016 #19
True, but can you imagine how many comments sections he must read a day. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #18
He does have a tendency to use needless profanity. n/t Herman4747 Feb 2016 #24
I always thought he was just like that MuseRider Feb 2016 #51
Speaking of being a dick 2pooped2pop Feb 2016 #2
Spot on. nt LexVegas Feb 2016 #3
inb4hide! stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #5
The fatal flaw in his argument -- Only Clinton can deliver us, and.... Armstead Feb 2016 #7
It most likely come to that reality. N/T Big Blue Marble Feb 2016 #15
Not if you pretend that ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #38
Under the bus? NurseJackie Feb 2016 #8
The depth of such insightful replies always amaze me Armstead Feb 2016 #9
Hillary Clinton's Ghosts: A Legacy of Pushing the Democratic Party to the Right UglyGreed Feb 2016 #10
spot on Perogie Feb 2016 #42
I am certainly not dumb enough to fall for this crap. nt Live and Learn Feb 2016 #11
Succinct. ismnotwasm Feb 2016 #12
Lots of facts, none of them arguable. nt stevenleser Feb 2016 #13
But he was so profane! eom 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #40
Thanks but I'm almost 60 and will never knowingly vote for a conservative again Doctor_J Feb 2016 #14
100% at your side. SoapBox Feb 2016 #22
Absolutely right -- I'm never voting for Hillary john978 Feb 2016 #33
I tip my hat off to all the Democrats who have managed to stay focused after their candidate loses Baitball Blogger Feb 2016 #16
Sounds like the same crap I heard on CBS Radio this AM... SoapBox Feb 2016 #20
Your idea of a good analysis and mine differ greatly. Kall Feb 2016 #21
Thanks so much for this! Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2016 #23
Screw this analysis. LS_Editor Feb 2016 #25
If you think an HRC victory over Trump would be preordained, you are clueless... modestybl Feb 2016 #26
Yeah, with Democrats like that, who needs Republicans? libdem4life Feb 2016 #28
We are in it to win it ... Trajan Feb 2016 #27
Well, I think, if you believe this analysis you are a fucking moron. TIME TO PANIC Feb 2016 #29
Kos carrying water for Hillary, like a good little boy... Yurovsky Feb 2016 #30
Great analysis! Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #31
By Moulitsas' logic, Donald Trump's unfavorables should go down... Herman4747 Feb 2016 #32
That analysis is a load of bullshit in my opinion BernieforPres2016 Feb 2016 #34
Yes ... I enjoyed this piece. K&R for exposure. 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #35
Brilliant, well written, and funny. His best comment was on DWS... Agnosticsherbet Feb 2016 #36
HRC knew what she was doing when her campaign asked for only 4 debates. Eric J in MN Feb 2016 #44
We really should wait for the delegate count for this. It's a LONG way to convention. silvershadow Feb 2016 #37
Fuck that guy n/t whatchamacallit Feb 2016 #39
Bogus analysis. The small number of debates hurt Sanders and O'Malley. Eric J in MN Feb 2016 #41
You mean the same Markos Moulitsas who thought Kerry would beat bush? basselope Feb 2016 #43
Kos also predicted Michele Bachmann would be the GOP 2012 presidential nominee. NT Eric J in MN Feb 2016 #45
Spot on! MaggieD Feb 2016 #46
I see Moulistsas has joined the bashing of bernie supporters Robbins Feb 2016 #47
Another boring variation on trump's demise and hillary's inevitability. Carlo Marx Feb 2016 #48
BUT he forgets, DRUMPF IS FAMOUS. america LOVES FAMOUS. and americans ARE STUPID. pansypoo53219 Feb 2016 #49
I guess we can put the "Liberal Media" meme to bed for good. Blue State Bandit Feb 2016 #50
Facile bullshit. mhatrw Feb 2016 #52
Great analysis SCantiGOP Mar 2016 #53
K & R. n/t FSogol Mar 2016 #54

elleng

(131,111 posts)
1. Nothing 'good' about 'Don’t be a dick!
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:15 PM
Feb 2016

you are a fucking moron. Seriously, you are as dumb as rocks.' Markos appears to have lost the civility he once had.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
4. I'll agree he was very pointed
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:16 PM
Feb 2016

but I agree with him that Hillary Clinton can defeat Donald Trump.

wyldwolf

(43,870 posts)
17. he's never been the nicest guy in the world. Just sayin'
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:46 PM
Feb 2016

And his tone is a bit more civil than some I've seen here.

elleng

(131,111 posts)
19. I've never followed him closely,
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:56 PM
Feb 2016

and I agree, 'a bit more civil' than some here, which is one reason I don't post here as often as I might. I certainly don't post all of my thoughts and feelings; that's part of the measure of civility and adulthood, imo.

MuseRider

(34,120 posts)
51. I always thought he was just like that
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:33 PM
Feb 2016

first thing he called the rest of us. Always. Never liked anything about him or his site.

Par for the course. I have friends who write there but still, Markos. Nope.

 

Armstead

(47,803 posts)
7. The fatal flaw in his argument -- Only Clinton can deliver us, and....
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:23 PM
Feb 2016

we have to settle for someone we don''t like just to stop the Trumpenstein.

Same flawed thinking that has gotten and kept the Democratic Party and America in this predicament for 35 years.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
38. Not if you pretend that ...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:06 PM
Feb 2016

we don't have a 2 Party system, where 3rd party, write-in, and protest votes, work to ensure we get the worst possible alternative.

UglyGreed

(7,661 posts)
10. Hillary Clinton's Ghosts: A Legacy of Pushing the Democratic Party to the Right
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:27 PM
Feb 2016

{snip}

Remember: The Dean campaign was taken down by the DLC, who attacked him for running a campaign from the "McGovern-Mondale wing" of the Democratic Party, "defined principally by weakness abroad and elitist, interest-group liberalism at home." The rift between the DLC and Dean's supporters was so intense that Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas described it as a "civil war" between Democrats. Of course, when Dean announced his support for Clinton, he made no mention of the fact that she was the leader of the same group that ambushed his candidacy precisely because it appealed to the party's left-leaning base.

Once the primary is over, the chance to force Clinton to respond to left critiques will likely not come again soon.

Yet Moulitsas recently endorsed Clinton in a column for The Hill. Moulitsas was one of the key bloggers who supported Dean in 2004 and helped create the Netroots in its infancy. His goal, he said often, was "crashing the gate" of the Democratic establishment. But his uncritical support for Clinton, the quintessential establishment candidate, has turned much of his own blog into evidence of how some progressives are dismissing recent history for partisan reasons. In the last contested Democratic primary, Moulitsas was extremely critical of Clinton. Now, he is helping her do to Sanders what the DLC did to Dean.

Why are the likes of Dean and Moulitsas so quick to embrace Clinton after years of battling with her and her allies in the so-called "vital center?" Only they know for sure. In the case of Dean, it may well be because he was never a real populist to begin with. In 2003, Bloomberg did a story asking Vermonters to talk about Dean's ideology. "Howard is not a liberal. He's a pro-business, Rockefeller Republican," said Garrison Nelson, a political science professor at the University of Vermont. This sentiment is shared by many Vermonters, on both the left and right.

But for other self-identified progressives who have embraced the establishment candidate, such as Moulitsas, the answers may be simpler: partisan loyalty and ambition. The fact is the odds of Clinton winning the nomination are very good. And for the likes of Moulitsas - who now writes columns for an establishment DC paper and is a major fundraiser for Democrats - being on the side of the winner will certainly make him more friends in DC than supporting the self-identified socialist that opposes her. Moulitsas argues that Clinton has dismissed "her husband's ideological baggage" and is "aiming for a truly progressive presidency." He is now a true believer, he claims. It is up to readers to decide if they find his argument to be credible, especially compared to the conflicting statements he has made for many years. Many on his own blog are skeptical.

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/33869-hillary-clinton-s-ghosts-a-legacy-of-pushing-the-democratic-party-to-the-right

Perogie

(687 posts)
42. spot on
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:10 PM
Feb 2016

why vote for a republican-lite just because they have a "D" after their name.

I'm tired of carrying water for the dems to keep them in power and then they do as little as possible for the public, but just enough to be able to say they aren't as bad as the Republicans.

ACA is a perfect example. They didn't even try to fight for single payer.
Refused to allow single payer advocates to testify before congress. They gave us the Heritage Foundation plan with a few tweaks.
Ya it's better that what we had but a far cry from what we should have.

 

Doctor_J

(36,392 posts)
14. Thanks but I'm almost 60 and will never knowingly vote for a conservative again
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:35 PM
Feb 2016

It is her right to support TPP and capital punishment and fracking and privatizing social security and charter schools and making healthcare even more profitable for her friends and increasing domestic spying and trillions of dollars in wars. It is her right to oppose gay marriage and wall street regulation and put some abortion restrictions on the table. It is her right to change her mind on every major issue, as often as she likes.

It's my right to not vote for such a person.

john978

(29 posts)
33. Absolutely right -- I'm never voting for Hillary
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:58 PM
Feb 2016

In a Hillary/Trump election, I am voting for the progressive -- Jill Stein (Green), and so are my friends.

Baitball Blogger

(46,758 posts)
16. I tip my hat off to all the Democrats who have managed to stay focused after their candidate loses
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:36 PM
Feb 2016

the primary. This is my first primary and I can tell you that this process only confirms my skepticism in the political process.

SoapBox

(18,791 posts)
20. Sounds like the same crap I heard on CBS Radio this AM...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:32 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie only does good in white states...

And that was followed immediately with a story about Flint and how there is another polluted town in...Vermont.

How convenient that he's slammed about white people and then it felt like it was implication by association, about Vermont and that town's water.

I also think that the anybody-but-Hill factor is WHOLEY underestimated.

 

modestybl

(458 posts)
26. If you think an HRC victory over Trump would be preordained, you are clueless...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:48 PM
Feb 2016

The vast majority of Dems will vote for whoever is the nominee... but Dems are a smaller group than Independents, and HRC will need Sanders' supporters much more than Sanders will need HRC's supporters should he win.

HRC is:

against $15 minimum
against Single Payer
against free public college tuition
For the TPP
For the Keystone pipeline
open to raising the SS age
open to continued regime change in the ME...

So, remind us what makes her so irresistible to middle class voters?

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
27. We are in it to win it ...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:49 PM
Feb 2016

And ... I've left you alone amongst the tattered trail of mean nasty supporters of a certain candidate that have left my sight ...

But, the little snide asides are getting to be a burden ...

I'm going to rid that burden now ...

Gone

Yurovsky

(2,064 posts)
30. Kos carrying water for Hillary, like a good little boy...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:56 PM
Feb 2016

I wonder what job he gets if HRC gets elected...

He is free to sell his soul to corporate interests and the piece of shit bastards on Wall Street.

I'll pass, fuck you very much (Kos, not the OP).

 

Herman4747

(1,825 posts)
32. By Moulitsas' logic, Donald Trump's unfavorables should go down...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:58 PM
Feb 2016

...once he is selected as the Republican nominee, that is, since Hillary's should go down upon becoming our nominee. So if Hillary's goes down and Trump's goes down, that really doesn't put us ahead.

But the premise that Hillary's unfavorable score should go down has not been established by Moulitsas. If a sizable portion of the electorate regard her as crooked, why should the score go down once she becomes the nominee?

Moulitsas himself realizes that his argument is at a minimum insufficient, for he goes on to say, "you can’t argue 54 percent unfavorables makes her unelectable while claiming that Donald Trump can win with unfavorables of 58 percent." But no one is arguing that 54 percent unfavorables make her completely unelectable. What is of strong concern is that that 54% is not all that much above Trump's 58% -- just small fluctuations caused by yet unknown future factors could easily place her unfavorability score above his!! Her edge over Trump is too tenuous, especially in light of the immense problems that would ensue should The Donald become president.

Another thing overlooked is that Bernie has gone easy on her, and she's still at 54% unfavorable. The Republicans will use all kinds of ammo against her, and she's certainly provided them with a lot. We need only recall how a fine candidate, John Kerry, was swiftboated.

The best thing to do is to support Bernie (with his 49% favorability rating) and thereby take much fewer chances!

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
36. Brilliant, well written, and funny. His best comment was on DWS...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:04 PM
Feb 2016

We've had weeks of angst over DWS. So this is brilliant.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz was irrelevant to the ultimate outcome of this primary contest. To think she kneecaped Sanders would assume that she’s competent at something. And she’s not. If anything, she was inadvertently one of Sanders’ biggest allies. By burying the debates and hiding Clinton, she allowed Clinton’s foes to set the terms of the debate. Remember, Clinton’s high-water marks last year were the week of the first debate and Benghazi hearings. The longer she was out of the public eye, the worse her primary numbers became. So I’m genuinely amazed at how DWS has achieved boogeyman status. She’s a joke, and yet people are acting like she’s a kingmaker. She’s too pathetic to be that!


Yes, he was crude. But he is right that after the Benghazi hearings and winning every debate (Sanders supporters will disagree) she has managed to hold him to 1 real win. He will have a few more, but the Demographic's of the Democratic Party are not on his side. Future insurgent campaigns should use this as a primer.
Start Early.
Speak to all of the Democratic Party.

Eric J in MN

(35,619 posts)
44. HRC knew what she was doing when her campaign asked for only 4 debates.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:14 PM
Feb 2016

O'Malley and Sanders knew what they were doing when they asked for more.

HRC is nationally famous. O'Malley and Sanders aren't. People aren't going to vote for a candidate they never heard of over one they have in a primary.

 

silvershadow

(10,336 posts)
37. We really should wait for the delegate count for this. It's a LONG way to convention.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:05 PM
Feb 2016

Miles to go before we sleep (ANY of us).

Eric J in MN

(35,619 posts)
41. Bogus analysis. The small number of debates hurt Sanders and O'Malley.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:08 PM
Feb 2016

The HRC campaign knew what it was doing when it requested of DWS to schedule only 4 debates (DWS scheduled 6).

In 2008, HRC and Obama debated 25 times, and that helped him.

A candidate who is nationally famous, such as HRC, is helped by having only a small number of debates.

Kos' claim that debates don't matter because of social media is absurd. Most Americans aren't going to Twitter to read about politics.

 

basselope

(2,565 posts)
43. You mean the same Markos Moulitsas who thought Kerry would beat bush?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:13 PM
Feb 2016

Sorry Markos... Clinton CAN'T beat Trump, because there is 0 enthusiasm behind her campaign. She is just politics as usual.

No matter what the unavailability ratings Trump will get votes from people who want to shake up the system.

Clinton won't.

So UNLESS they leave the Supreme Court seat open and give Clinton a wedge issue, she can't win.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
47. I see Moulistsas has joined the bashing of bernie supporters
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:19 PM
Feb 2016

calling us all white racists seem to be the memo of the day.

your really crazy if you think bernie running is what has called her negatives to rise.if you think GOP won't be much much harsher
on her your crazy.many bernie supporters think he has been too nice to her while she has been lying like crazy on him.

we have been called racists and sexists by clinton supporters.Bill CLinton called us all tea party.you think after all the bashing by
clinton we will just forgive and forget like nothing happened after all the personal attacks?

Clinton is no progressive.Moulistsas has proven he is none by supporting clinton and attacking bernie and his supporters.

I have plenty of reasons to oppose clinton

she supports more war In middle east and is loved by henry kissinger

she supports free trade bills no matter what she claims at present.evidance is there.they kill unions and working class

as disabled on social safety net she won't defend them.she already opposes rasing cap on wealthy which means SS and medicare will continue on path to bankruptcy.Republicans can't wait to cut food stamps and medicaid under pretense of fighting "fraud"
with her you can kiss any cost of living adjustments goodbye.

Clinton only cares about top 1%

 

Carlo Marx

(98 posts)
48. Another boring variation on trump's demise and hillary's inevitability.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:20 PM
Feb 2016

The data has been clear: as Sanders name recognition increases with minority voters, so does his support among minority voters. Carl Beijer, linked from Naked Capitalism, explains the name recognition gap as a result of media coverage. Nobody would dispute Clinton receiving much greater, more favorable coverage. The fact that Clinton competes point for point in unfavorability ratings with Donald Trump says lots about her vulnerabilities. Clinton, like Trump, is a treasure chest of scandal and political disaster and although Sanders has been mild and dignified in his criticisms, Trump would be ruthless. Good luck thinking all Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary. Disgust of media, political and corporate elites is finally catching up with all the economic data pointing to Gilded Age suffering.

pansypoo53219

(20,996 posts)
49. BUT he forgets, DRUMPF IS FAMOUS. america LOVES FAMOUS. and americans ARE STUPID.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:29 PM
Feb 2016

remember how the media just LAUGHED & pointed cameras at the tea baggers????

Blue State Bandit

(2,122 posts)
50. I guess we can put the "Liberal Media" meme to bed for good.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:29 PM
Feb 2016

When was the last time SC went Blue in a GE? What would have happened to SC if the vote went the other way and Hillary eventually won anyway? Could they be left to the wolves in in elephant suits for the next 4 years? We all watched her use the fear of a republican takeover to scare the vote out of SC.

How much effort has the DNC made to register new voters? Haven't seen much going on on campus, wonder why that is? How many seats did DSW lose on her watch? She lost the house/senate, and if her and Hillary aren't more careful how they portray Bernie while Hillary cops his actual shtick, they will lose the White House too.

MSNBC, the channel that basically acted as the Democratic Party's unofficial cable network for Obama has chased out or "sat down" anybody vague suspected of possibly backing Bernie against Hillary. If John Roberts wants to be the next Rupert Murdock, he's off to one hell of a start.

And, if Hillary Clinton was sooo principled, she would not have hired David "Anita Hill's slut... sike" Brock.

Oh... one other thing. FBI INVESTIGATION and CLINTON STAFF ORDERED TO TESTIFY BY CLINTON APPOINTEE!

Duces.

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
52. Facile bullshit.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 10:54 PM
Feb 2016

The Democrats simply could not nominate a worse candidate than Clinton in terms of completely misreading the anti-establishment mood of the electorate as a whole, firing up the Republican base, driving Independents into the Republicans' arms, leaving the Democratic base stone cold, and ensuring that highly liberal millennials stop participating in politics completely.

Seriously. I can't think of a worse candidate the Democratic and corporate establishment could have possibly shoved down our throats.

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