2016 Postmortem

FBaggins

(26,754 posts) Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:12 PM Oct 2012

Romney gains on Obama in Colorado, but race remains essentially tied

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney pulled one percentage point ahead of President Barack Obama among Colorado voters in a new Denver Post poll released Friday, though the two are still effectively tied. Romney now leads Obama 48 to 47, with a four-point margin of error in the poll that surveyed 614 likely voters by cell phone and home numbers Tuesday and Wednesday. The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA for The Post.

Romney's one-point advantage represents a small shift from The Post poll conducted five weeks ago when Obama had a one-point, 47-46, advantage.

...snip...

Though there was a national enthusiasm bump for Romney — and higher poll numbers — after that debate, 83 percent of those Colorado voters polled say the debate did not change their mind, according to the Post's poll. Of the small group of voters who changed their mind after the first debate, however, twice as many switched to Romney as switched to Obama.

...snip...

Asked about a matchup that included Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson — who is on the ballot in Colorado — respondents still picked Romney over Obama by a single percentage point, or 46 to 45. Johnson took 2 percent of the vote in The Post poll, and 5 percent of voters say they are still undecided.

http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_21759147/poll-romney-gains-obama-colorado-but-race-remains?source=rss

8 replies

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Romney gains on Obama in Colorado, but race remains essentially tied (Original Post) FBaggins Oct 2012 OP

This state is so stupid meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #1

'This state is so stupid' TroyD Oct 2012 #3

In reality this poll really shows no change from their previous poll WI_DEM Oct 2012 #5

Yes that might be a broad brush meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #8

What is Aurora like from a polling perspective? DMacTX Oct 2012 #2

Aurora tends to be a little more dem leaning but not by much meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #7

From +1 Obama to +1 Romney is virtually no change WI_DEM Oct 2012 #4

That's correct. FBaggins Oct 2012 #6

meadowlark5

(2,795 posts)

1. This state is so stupid

Reply to FBaggins (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:17 PM

Oct 2012

The only reliable place where Obama can get votes is Denver city/county and Boulder. The rest of the state is rural, flag waving patriots that could never vote for that un-American Muslim or the burbs with all their megachurches and cookie cutter homes. And things only got worse back in the 90s when there was this huge influx of Texans and Kansans that moved here.

I was actually surprised he won the state last time. Maybe having the convention here fired up more people. But this is a pretty redneck/white suburbia state with the exception of Denver and Boulder.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

3. 'This state is so stupid'

Reply to meadowlark5 (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:54 PM

Oct 2012

I think that's unfair.

It's a lot better than many other states out there. Would you prefer Idaho or Oklahoma?

Colorado has been very good for the Democrats in the past few years. Obama won it by about 9 points in 2008 I think. He certainly can win there this year if he gets himself together in the next debate.

And Colorado also has a Democratic Governor and TWO Democratic U.S. Senators.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

5. In reality this poll really shows no change from their previous poll

Reply to meadowlark5 (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:56 PM

Oct 2012

It's too close to call at this point. It's a true swing state.

meadowlark5

(2,795 posts)

8. Yes that might be a broad brush

Reply to meadowlark5 (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:31 PM

Oct 2012

But much of this state isn't all that much different than Kansas or Oklahoma. We have a dem governor now but have had repubs in the past. Sen Michael Bennett isn't much of a democrat but that's my opinion.

If it weren't for the dense population of the city/county of Denver this state would be a solid red state for every election. In fact, I think 2008 was the first time Colorado went blue in 8 or 10 yrs.

DMacTX

(301 posts)

2. What is Aurora like from a polling perspective?

Reply to FBaggins (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:51 PM

Oct 2012

meadowlark5

(2,795 posts)

7. Aurora tends to be a little more dem leaning but not by much

Reply to DMacTX (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:27 PM

Oct 2012

I am outside of Denver by about 30 miles in the burbs and this particular county is extremely conservative. One of the first in the state to make vouchers available for private schools. As far as I know the only private schools in this county are religious. But pretty much if you were to look at a vote result like were offered during the last election, you would see only tiny little dots of blue. Most of this state is red, except for Denver county and Boulder county.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

4. From +1 Obama to +1 Romney is virtually no change

Reply to FBaggins (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 02:54 PM

Oct 2012

Obama didn't go down at all. Romney went up 2-points. Colorado was always going to be a battleground and it is.

FBaggins

(26,754 posts)

6. That's correct.

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:00 PM

Oct 2012

The combination of this poll and Quinnipiac help to blount any fear from Gravis/ARG (6-7 point swings). Both of them reflect very little change pre-post debate.

Yes, the state is clearly in play... but it looks like there's less "bounce" there than most other states.

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