Seriously, what the hell is up with the polls this year? I mean, don't get me wrong. I'll take this one. Nice for a goodie that shows a nice Obama swing. But is it just me, or is anyone else feeling totally jerked around by pollsters? They're all over the map. Maybe just because we're a month out, but wow. I just don't remember so many fast shifts and weird changes in the last few elections.

But I'm loving this one. It's nice to have one to counteract Gallup today. Now let's hope Biden Unleashed actually did some good - if not through the debate, than at least in changing the narrative.

I will take happy news where I can find it.

Where Romney/Ryan stand, and just found out that roe v wade will be overturned, the supreme court will have people like Scalia, and social security and Medicare will be privatized, and they are getting nervous, not including this war mongering talk

in showing a small but consistent Obama lead in the national polls and a bigger one in the swing states.

Last edited Fri Oct 12, 2012, 03:28 PM - Edit history (1)

And I mean that seriously. How many times has a candidate been up so consistently with RV, but fallen badly enough that it could change the outcome with ' likelys'?

I dare say that knowing your vote could be that much more important than usual could completely throw the models come election day, especially given amount of young voters whose absence is assumed.

They have no freakin' clue about the legions of people in their 70s that I see with Obama stickers on their cars.... or the folks that don't have home phones, or those that will wait in line 10 hours to vote for the President after taking a bus to the polling place.

People are freaking out about the NEW polls that feature Likely Voters, which were not pushed much in the beginning. The media needs a horse race...

Now, I know they were close to the money in 2008 - who couldn't be?! The excitement was palpable, but at the same time, the assumption is that a lopsided proportion of first-time voters last time around will sit this one out. I say that they're off the mark.

This will be an extremely close contest and, given Romney's huge advantage in the South, as it stands I think he'll win the popular vote. That stands to change, because there's a great deal of soft support out there, but that's purely my supposition based on a snapshot of this moment in time.

However, 2010 saw Democrats outperform the polling average in all seven 'toss-up' races. If Obama outperforms the current data in Ohio, Virginia and Nevada, it's over. He wins.

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Think of the gallup poll shortly after the first debate. IIRC, They had two-point swings (back and forth) three days in a row.

In a 7-day tracking poll, that hints that there was a 14-point swing between the day that dropped off and the new polling day (and it caused a few people here to assume that some events had much larger impacts than they really did).

Had Gallup reported the numbers as (made up) 46.7% (O) - 47.4% (R) changing to 46.3%(O) - 47.5% (R) instead of 47/47 chaning to 46/48 - then fewer people would have been confused.

Does that translate into the 5-point shift referenced in the OP?

It was R - 48.7 to O - 43.7 on 10/10. It shifted closer yesterday, and now Obama is up a bit today. I think that's the five point swing in two days.

The President's numbers will continue to improve over the weekend and by the time
the next debate is over, Obama will have a noticeable lead.

The President will deal the knockout blow the following Monday. Romney will
not be able to recover and he will create several gaffes in an desperate
attempt to change the trajectory of the race.

Yes, they're noisy and a five point movement in two days on a 7-day tracker isn't possible without it showing up in other polls...

... but I will take what I can get!

So today Would mix out their most caustic numbers. Either way, it's a huge move on the upside but we've Got a lot work to do to get back what we lost.

How many more cycles before they end up a beleaguered minority, like the Afrikaners?

Take the South out and the race is 49-40 for Obama (Romney leads by 12 in the south). The president is doing well in the Northeast. The race is tied in the Midwest and Obama is underperforming, but still leading by 9, in the west. I think Biden's solid debate will help and Obama will reassure others next week.

I think the margin is so ridiculous in the South that it throws everything. I thought that would happen last time, but I guess I really hoped that once the scary black man was in the White House, people would realize the color of his skin doesn't make him a monster.

Clearly, I was wrong. They know they're a dying breed, and they're fighting with everything they've got for that last victory on behalf of bigotry everywhere. I sure hope they don't get it.

Says a Democratic Senate & a Romney win is now 'very plausible'



https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

He's talking about what's happened to the numbers. Clearly, they've been bad all week. That being said, he's still ahead in important states, so unless Nate's talking about something that's coming it, I think he's just saying what we all know.

1) after the VP debate and 2) after Obama's second debate next week. Obama's numbers are not awful--it depends on the poll. We had a lot of good news yesterday with CBS and NBC polls but today with RAS & especially ARG (how reputable are they?) it looks a little different. Is Obama up in Virginia by 6 as CBS says or down by 3 as Ras says?

He's on my radar.

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He's proven this week more than any how irrelevant he is on the whole matter. He doesn't know any more about this race than you and I and it's been pretty clear with how erratic his model has been the past two weeks.

I had battle royals with TIA and his happy polls and prognostications, much to the chagrin of him and many DUERS. But this race feels different. I still think the fundamentals favor the president.

Has he predicted something most people weren't predicting? Because I'm well aware of the mood in 2008 and 2010 and I think we all knew, going into election day, that Obama was going to win the presidency and then, two years later, Republicans were going to have a very strong night. What Nate has done is no more accurate than every political talking head out there. They all said Obama would beat McCain in a landslide and most were predicting a very good night for the Republicans in '10.

Like I said ... he has absolutely no insight into where this race could go. He talks about his model and how great it is, but it's clear his model is absolutely invested in polls and well, who the hell needs Nate to tell us what we're reading by looking at the polls?

Look, Nate is overrated. Last week, before the debate, his model put Obama sailing through reelection. A week later and now he's suggesting Obama might lose. Great. But that just reinforces my view ... he's got about as much insight as anyone else. We all know, without Nate telling us, that Obama took a hit. We all know, today, that Obama is doing worse than he was at the start of last week.

So...why should what he says have any more influence than what the polls are already saying? We know he'll flip and flop with whatever direction the polls take ... so, shouldn't we just cut out the middle man and look at the polls themselves?

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Does that bit of information make you

a) Ecstatic
b) Very Happy
c) Happy
d) A Little Happy

And hopefully we get to shate many more laughs.

YIKES!



Why is Romney doing so well with Independents, and can this be changed over the next 4 weeks?

As soon as Obama whips some ass on Tuesday.

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Anyone know. Looks like they poll on day they release the data...

I don't so much mind a poll showing a national Obama lead right now... even if it doesn't make much sense (the poll... not the lead).

This polls is a tad bit kinder to us. That's all...