2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNewsweek: The Bad News for Clinton Out of South Carolina
http://www.newsweek.com/black-turnout-test-clinton-south-carolina-and-beyond-430914?google_editors_picks=truesnip
Theres some bad news for Hillary Clinton amidst her dominating victory in South Carolinas first in the South primary Saturday. Clintons pummeling of rival Bernie Sanders by 50 points overshadowed a worrisome data point for her campaign and the party come November: turnout among the states heavily black electorate was down by nearly one-third compared to 2008.
Nobody expected the race between the white former secretary of state and white senator of Vermont to attract the same number of Democratic voters in the Palmetto state as the race between Clinton and Barack Obama eight years ago, when voters had the chance to make history by nominating the first black man for president. That year, more than 530,000 people voted in the Democratic primary, more than half of them African Americans.
But the 2016 Democratic nominee also cannot afford to see the kind of drop off in black votes that occurred in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, which saw Republicans surge into control of Congress. South Carolina was the first real test of how African American voters respond to the post-Obama era. And for Democrats, the outcome should come as a warning sign.
snip
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)I never thought Hillary would surpass 2008.
kgnu_fan
(3,021 posts)renate
(13,776 posts)But I think Democratic voters are more likely to turn out for a contest between ___ and Trump than for the primary.
I hope so, anyway.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)And that is another reason we should ignore that state's vote. They don't deserve any recognition. 87% of the Dem voters flat out ignored democracy and their chance to participate..
Gee, I wonder what might be wrong in SC?
kristopher
(29,798 posts)If you are actually interested in improving our nation, wouldn't it be helpful to understand the goals and policy proposals of the candidate you are rejecting?
In this case Bernie has never claimed he was going to make this some sort of wave election.
He has repeatedly stated that he will not match the 2008 turnout.
So what is he saying and what is his goal?
Take a look at this table:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/06/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-developed-countries/
Note the consistency of turnout as percentage of registered voters vs turnout as percentage of all eligible voters. Central to the Sander's platform is expanding the electorate by enacting, automatic registration of all people when they reach voting age. He may not get it all but the goal is universal democracy. Is that wrong?
That is what will enable the overthrow of oligarchy and the restoration of democracy - it must happen before anything else can go forward.
Do you happen to know Hillary's plan for our citizen's lack of access to voting? Look at how low our registration numbers are; do you think that is an accident or that it isn't a known feature of our election system?
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)They proved it.
I am beginning to wonder if Hillary people believe in democracy.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)In 2008 Obama and Clinton was running, in 2016 Clinton and Sanders ran, the two candidates are not getting the turnout Obama received.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)There is no correlation between primary turnout and general election performance. Fact is, Democrats have long assumed (correctly) that Clinton would be the nominee, so there has been less impetus to vote than in the GOP civil war. In fact, the lower-than-expected turnout is an indictment on the Sanders campaign, because despite all the talk of revolution, fact is, he hasnt inspired casual Democrats to turn out in any real numbers.
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/29/1492734/-Democrats-South-Carolina-and-wrapping-up-our-primary-season
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Who needs facts?
...heh.
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)Bad news for Clinton is even worse news for Sanders because at least she gets a hell of a lot more of the black vote than Sanders.
Mike Nelson
(9,958 posts)...Hillary, Bernie and the Democratic Party. Turnout for Democrats has been down in every state, not just South Carolina. Hopefully, the presence of Trump on the other side will draw Democrats to the polls. Also, prominent Republicans will be staying home in disgust.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)msongs
(67,413 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)vdogg
(1,384 posts)Surely you jest.Trump is an existential threat to PoC. Don't make the mistake of comparing primary turn out to the general.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)The LGBTQ community will show up ... Latinos will show up ... the entire (President) Obama coalition will show up ... The question is, as I asked before, will Bernie supporters?
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)and "progressives", whether staying home Bernie fans, or those that come out to vote, will forever, have sealed their fate within organized partisan politics.
My bet is there will be far fewer Bernie-PUMAS/Bernie:Tantrums than DU represents.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Wasn't me. No sir.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)You don't believe in the democratic process?
You think Hillary should have just been crowned?
Where'd you go? Not like you to slink away from a question. Come back and lets discuss democracy.
MADem
(135,425 posts)numbers jump up.
Bill Clinton did that "Secretary of Explaining Stuff" speech at the convention in 2012, and then went out on the stump drumming up enthusiasm for Obama in the run up to the election.
Once POTUS doesn't have to mind his tongue and we have a nominee, he'll be able to help generate some voter excitement.
yourout
(7,528 posts)This has down ticket disaster written all over it.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)That turnout is way up over 2000 and 2004.
And despite the massive primary numbers in 2008, it didn't affect the generals nearly as much.