2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSurvey USA: Dem coming on strong challenging freshman rep in Minnesota
If we win this one it's a pick up:
In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today from Minnesotas 8th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Chip Cravaack and former Congressman Rick Nolan are eyeball-to-eyeball in a contest too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Nolan is at 46%, Cravaack is at 45% in todays results.
The 20-point gender gap and 26-point age gap are significant: Nolan leads by 10 among women. Cravaack leads by 10 among men. Cravaack leads by 15 points among voters under age 50. Nolan leads by 11 points among voters age 50+. Independents break 5:3 Republican. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. Nolan has a 17-point lead in union households. Cravaack has a 9-point lead in non-union households. Of Barack Obama voters, 88% vote for the DFL candidate for Congress. Of Mitt Romney voters, 89% vote for the Republican for Congress.
* By 34% to 31%, Cravaack is seen as stronger on mining issues.
* By 41% to 36%, voters say Nolan will do more to protect Medicare.
* By 41% to 38%, voters say Cravaack will do more to bring jobs to the district.
* Nolan has a Plus 8 Net Favorability rating: 34% of voters see him favorably, compared to 26% who see him unfavorably.
* Cravaack has a Plus 5 Net Favorability rating: 38% of voters see him favorably, compared to 33% who see him unfavorably.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesotas 8th Congressional District 10/07/12 through 10/09/12, using registration-based (voter-list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 578 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, secured the respondents cooperation, asked the questions and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2012/10/10/in-minnesotas-8th-congressional-district-jump-ball-between-1st-term-incumbent-republican-cravaack-and-dfl-challenger-nolan/
amborin
(16,631 posts)Is going to be crucial in all swing states.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)ex NWA pilot who wouldn't support the Unions on MSP base,against a guy who owes his political career to the guys and gals in the Union trenches. Region 8 used to be solid DFL until Timmy Plenta(corn meal) carved it up to suit the Rethugs. All these lunch box Dems got their lunch handed to them by supporting Cravaack,NWA-Delta closed the repair base in their district,they found out what a Rethug will do for you. God,guns and gays don't put food on your table does it.