In the real world, you don't win a debate on lies.

How does it work?

a questionable reputation. I used them to make a point.

Look at the Florida polling from other organizations.

By the way, this counts as a negative post I've read from you.

the neverland_pirate negativity index for the day is now 1.

Let's see how high it gets.

I forgot.

Nate Silver has O still going down and Im sorry I dont trust rass polls, If I didnt trust them a month ago for Romney I dont trust them now. I swear it is now in who the hell knows catagory.

he had a minute in the sunshine and now it's over.

The President is clearly coming back strong and with the Biden Bump
giving him the edge going into his second debate, he has the wind
at his back. Wednesday morning will be a new ballgame altogether.

Polls that include TODAY forward in their numbers will show the Biden Bump.
And those polls aren't out yet.

It seems like a projection within a projection. Something that is very tricky to quantify for a host of reasons.

For example, what if a respondent said they were an LV, only on election day the line was too long or the kid got sick so they skipped it.

in contrast, what if a respondent who said they wouldn't vote decided to vote on election day.

I'm not saying the LV screens are wrong or a bad idea, just that they invite questions because of events and decisions in people's lives that can't be measured the day they were polled.

likely voters is merely a guess by the polsters.

and taking the time to put up the charts.

But pundits tend to be as clueless about math and statistics as the general population....when following polls, I suggest the same thing I used to tell stock market watchers; buy Tums.

I had my doubts about Romney's big win, which looked to me like anything but, and all those polls like Pew suddenly shifting 10, 12, even 14 points on some questions? Please. And now we get the ludicrous claims that Ryan won last night's debate on smile points? Come on, how obvious does it have to be before we figure out, again, just like 2000 and 2004, that most media and polls are either in the tank for the GOP or carrying water for them in the clench? If they weren't they'd be unpaid bloggers or marginalized cranks shouting into the wind, like Olberman for instance, the guy who got replaced. Think his replacement is going to make the same mistake? Not likely.

that of all the game-changing events (including the 47 percent comment), the debate is supposedly causing huge swings, but only in some polls.

If the debates are going to be huge game changers, will Biden's win, albeit mixed, have a huge impact?

Looking at the trends for Gallup and Reuters, the entire media narrative seems contrived. I mean, Romney gets a small bounce, but claiming huge swings on just the debate is absurd.

Welcome to DU.

Nice to be able to rec your posts!

that "Romney mopped the floor with Obama" and eating his lunch, and then, in the afternoon, when nobody's really paying attention, quietly reporting that, yes, Romney "performed" better (after having practiced so much in debates, not just the past year, but for many years) but his "performance" included plenty of lies ...

what do you expect but a bounce?

I hate it, I really do.

I don't get it, but the numbers are the numbers.

is the question. For example, here are Nate Silver's numbers, from the link above:



Notice that several bigger polls show Obama ahead on Friday: Gallup, with Obama +2.0 nationally, for example, and that a lot of the Romney-ahead polls are less reputable pollsters, selected by individual state: High Point U. for example, showing Romney gaining nearly 13 points in SC. Then the numbers are further massaged by calculating for "net change," producing a pleasing palate of red, pleasing to Nate and his NYT bosses, that is. Then there's the special massaging that went into these particular polls, with "likely voters," as selected by the pollsters, getting special preference. Massage, massage, massage, and voila, a dramatic new "trendline"! Pure number magic!

Or let's just call it what it is, creative accounting of the kind that send Arthur Anderson and their famous client down the toilet.

the right column is all red ...

We can say, well this pollster is biased here or there.

But, when pretty much ALL of the polls are trending Romney's way right now.

Not sure what good putting your head in the sand does other than make you feel better - and I am speaking about my persona experience right now, too.

I don't like it, but the debate changed the trajectory of this race SIGNIFICANTLY.

acknowledges this.

But, there are just too many polls showing the same kinds of stuff.

Again, we can say this one or that one is skewed, but the overall body of the polls pretty much shows the same thing.

Every metric, the national polls, the state polls, the polls of polls, intrade ....

All of them show that President Obama went from a slow and steady climb before the debate to a MARKED turn around after the debate.

Again, if it were today, he would win reelection by a small margin.

IF the trends continue, he probably is under water by the end of next week.

I hate it, it sickens me in the stomach, and I was where a lot of people are now initially after the debate.

But, the numbers are the numbers.

Maybe Biden/good economic numbers are stopping it now, HOPEFULLY.

But, the President HAS to perform at his absolute best Tuesday to get the trends going the other way.

"But, there are just too many polls showing the same kinds of stuff."

...right leaning polls. There hasn't been any major polls showing a dramatic shift. Even PPP's WI poll that showed the race narrowing, showed a gain among Republicans.

Look, I was there right after the debate.

I thought it was a "sugar high" and was certain it would mostly recede.

But, it hasn't. It has had a very tangible effect on this race.

Our president was pulling away at the moment that debate started, we were on the verge of a fairly substantial reelection.

Whatever BS was generated about the debate, it has clearly destroyed the momentum the President had, and clearly has at the bare minimum put the race into a dead heat.

I hate to post that, but the data is overwhelming.

The swing state polls are now reflecting the national polls immediately reflected.

HOPEFULLY the VP stopped the bleeding, but there is no doubt that regardless of whatever BS framing the media will put to it, this President has to come out and have the debate of his life on Tuesday.

I saw both debates on C-SPAN, and I respectfully disagree with your account of the first one. Obama acted like a well-informed, exceptionally gracious president, and Romney behaved like Regan in the Exorcist. This was a presidential debate, not an American Idol contest. Obama outperformed Romney by miles and that was obvious to anyone with eyes.

That's the reality, and hyper-massaged "data" like Nate Silver's trendlines are in a word malarkey.

See, this is the point.

You respectfully disagree with my account ot the first debate?

Your analysis is MY PERSONAL analysis.

Romney was a lying arse POS, the president was not great, but was thoughtful and truthful.

He won TO ME.

But, reality is that BO won is NOT CLEAR to everyone else.

People legitimately saw it differently, and well beyond that, the framing of it was completely different.

While it does not match reality as WE see it, the reality of the county IS different.

I don't like Silvers analysis at times, he does the good news for Rs/bad news for Ds thing like most media people.

But, he has integrity of his numbers.

They are what they are.

He is not more "massaging" them now than he was two weeks ago when bat shit republicans were screaming about it.

I hate it, it makes me sick in the gut.

But, as of today, the race is trending to Romney.

Does not mean it is his, if it were today our president likely would win a a modest victory.

But, he has the momentum at the moment like President Obama did two weeks ago.

What "integrity of numbers"? Can't you see he's doing his bit for Rove's ginned-up October surprise? Do you really think that out-of-the-blue "collapse" of Obama support, when everything was going for him and as you saw yourself he did just fine in the first debate, wasn't pre-planned?

How come Silver isn't calling Romney out for cheating? How come the MSNBC clown-crew COVERED for Romney's cheating? How come there aren't a gazillion polls showing Biden mopping the floor with dumb-bell Ryan? Oh yeah, it's the weekend. Didn't stop them last time.

The reality is that the media a) are nothing close to objective, b) aren't going to give Obama any breaks from here on out, and c) won't man up to any more Dem victories like Biden's unless they absolutely have to, and that goes for their pollsters, and that goes for Nov. 6. JMHO based on the last 12 years. I understand that there's no point dwelling on a rigged system, but you might as well face the fact that US media outfits are basically PR operations of the GOP, and quit blaming the victims when they launch their big lies. You'll feel a lot better.

I think that Obama will win a close election.
It will be closer than 2008. Maybe as close as 2004.

The natin is evenly divided and the economy is in poor shape.

the economy is actually on a clear, not major, but clear uptick at the moment.

But, I have always felt BO would win clearly, but not as big as 2008.

I think he had some good, slow momentum two weeks ago, after the conventions and the 47% tape, that lent to a bigger win, but that is clearly muted now.

Still, he has to perform, and perform WELL, Tuesday.

Obama does need to perform well.

(caveat - This is not to pretend that we're behind or that we will lose next month)

There is a way that the president should play this if the polls were lying and we were really still ahead by 4-5 points... And there's a way that he needs to respond if the "bounce" is real and we have a race on our hands.

What states should ad buys focus on? What issues should get the President's stump speech priority? What down-ballot races can he spend time on outside of battleground areas?

We were four touchdowns up in the third quarter but we threw an interception for a touchdown and then fumbled the kickoff return and gave up another seven points. Now they've recovers an onside kick and are in the red zone with ten minutes left to play.

Its ok to say that momentum has shifted ... because it has. The game isn't lost... We still have a lead... But we need to play like we need to regain the momentum... Not pretend that it never really happened.

The polls are currently being skewed by plethora of RW and fly-by-night polls (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021530460). Others, including Gallup and Reuters show no real movement.

Although Nate Silver factors in these polls, he even admits they're right leaning.

Battleground polling snapshot: Romney regresses

by kos

The current numbers are from the TPM polling composite. The four-year-ago numbers are from exactly four years ago, or Oct. 3, 2008. The final '08 margin—a new column on this chart—is the final vote results.



As some of you might quickly notice, Missouri is back on the chart! That 4.7-point Romney advantage feels big and difficult to overcome, right? Well, Romney faces equally daunting or bigger deficits in five of the remaining contested states. No one really thinks Missouri will turn Blue this year, and no one is spending money on the presidential race. So the fact that it is closer than states that Romney is spending millions in is pretty darn hilarious.

It also gives Romney another state in which he's above the 45s—one of just two in this list of 10 states plus the national composite.

North Carolina, by the way, was a slight Obama lead yesterday in the composite, until a new Rasmussen poll this morning turned it Red again. As it's pretty obvious at this point, the state will come down to GOTV.

Every time I plug new numbers into this chart for this feature, I think, "Lookit that, Romney is going backwards again!" I decided to see if my perception was reality, so I compared Romney's level of support in the polling composite to what he was receiving a little over a month ago:

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/03/1139351/-Battleground-polling-snapshot-Romney-regresses

And there's really no point in posting all of these 'Romney's bounce is fake' threads. It's real. (Romney is still ahead of Obama in Rasmussen this morning - just saw the new number).

Romney had the game changer he needed. Normally debates don't matter - this one did.

It's time to stop pretending the Romney bounce is fake and fight back!

Joe Biden did it the other night - and everyone else better join him!

Remember the SUPREME COURT!

The only poll that matters is November 6th. So instead of all of the agonizing poll watching, it would behoove everyone to be out making sure we get every Democrat and other Pres. Obama supporters registered and voter ready.
Poll stalking only makes you crazy. Most of the time they are not even close to being right.
The only poll we can count on is the poll on November 6th.

I think it would be fair to say there has been some slippage in the president's horse race position. However we don't know how much slippage there is because of the abundance of Republican hack polls. I think the slippage isn't nearly as large as the average of polls suggest because the average of polls has been tainted by the introduction of biased pollsters.

"I think it would be fair to say there has been some slippage in the president's horse race position. However we don't know how much slippage there is because of the abundance of Republican hack polls."

...stupid enough to think Romney gained nothing from the massive gushing over the debate. You're making my point, but in addition, I'm saying the massive shift is bullshit. For example, there are some polls showing a huge swing among women, and none of the major polls showed such a shift. The CNN Ohio poll had Obama up 20 among women.

More points: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138192#post41

And an even better idea of the state of the race a week from Monday when all three debates are factored in.

I'm concerned but far from panicking. The fundamentals still favor the president.