2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat we learned tonight.....Hillary can't win big outside of the confederacy.
also, Hillary got 700,000 votes in Massachusetts in 2008.....only in the high 500,000's this time.
Why the huge dip in votes?
Can she get a big win outside of the confederacy?
AzDar
(14,023 posts)FarPoint
(12,437 posts)So, your point is moot.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)...are states she'll lose badly in the GE, then the whole 'electability' thing is a pipe dream.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)SC was absolutely moot re: electability.
Other states, too. Good point.
Response to grasswire (Reply #29)
Matt_R This message was self-deleted by its author.
basselope
(2,565 posts)greymattermom
(5,754 posts)Hillary won the democratic primary, but Trump got a LOT more votes than Hillary, and he's in a 3 way race. Scary to me. I live in Georgia.
FarPoint
(12,437 posts)I'm with Hillary as will be most Democrats, Independents and bitter republicans who won't support Trump.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)but then again the Hillary supporters don't seem to be interested in facts
People don't like her according to the polls and they also don't trust her. Of course Bernie's numbers in these areas are at the top.
But what does that matter when you don't pay attention to facts, right?
FarPoint
(12,437 posts)I'm completely comfortable with realizing the Clinton charismatic leadership. ....as do others around the world.
Press Virginia
(2,329 posts)she hardly knows which emotions to display at the proper time
FarPoint
(12,437 posts)Hillary Clinton is beloved around the world equal to President Obama. So, yea, charisma has been a positive characteristic, one of a multitude for Hillary Clinton.
Press Virginia
(2,329 posts)Bill has charisma. President Obama has charisma.
Hillary is like getting socks for Christmas. They're nice but they aren't what anyone really wants
Response to FarPoint (Reply #130)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Gene Debs
(582 posts)iAZZZo
(358 posts)Buns_of_Fire
(17,194 posts)#ImNotKiddingMaddi
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Conservative Dems were her only hope, and in a GE the Repub will win those states.
Bernie is on his way to the Convention.
I see Hillary is now pleading with Bernie supporters to 'come on over' to her campaign. Lol!
She doesn't get that a majority of his supporters are formerly Independents BECAUSE the will not vote for the Establishment, Greens, previously NON voters too disgusted until Bernie to even bother to voted
So good luck with first bashing Bernie Supporters with vile attacks including using the Race and Gender cards. then asking for their votes.
But she does know she can't win without them. Should have thought about that before she and her supporters decided that attacking VOTERS was the way to go.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)I think it's too early in the primary process to assume "can't".
VulgarPoet
(2,872 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Hillary winning a big predominantly liberal state like Mass has to really hurt. Especially since Bernie said he would win it. Ouch!
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Ask yourself why the people in Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Colorado didn't believe that this race is over.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)that knows him best: Vermont.
Bernie won by 72 percentage points in his home state, Vermont.
Hillary won by only 36 points in the home state in which she was for many years the wife of the governor.
Bernie did much better in his state than Hillary did in hers.
Bernie is building name recognition and voter loyalty. Hillary is a household name but she is losing voter loyalty.
Bernie is doing extremely well. He has a good chance to win.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Bernie won Colorado by 19 points, Minnesota by 20 points, Oklahoma by 10 points and Vermont by 72, yes, 72 points.
Hillary won the former confederate states, but winning there is irrelevant to November if the past is any prediction.
http://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/
Bernie is the favorite of the Democrats in Democratic states -- at least thus far.
Hillary does well in Republican states.
Not surprising really. She is very Republican in many respects.
Bernie is the true Democrat in spite of the years he ran as an Independent.
Svafa
(594 posts)...and who knows what would have happened if it weren't for some seriously sketchy shit going down.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)That's the margin and with Bill ILLEGALLY interfering with the election. They have to cheat to win. What else is new?
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)That's an untruth at best.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Someone forgot to tell the rest of us...
grasswire
(50,130 posts)So it must be legit.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)In one way....the racist tone of the top Presidential candidates of the Republican party is essentially the tone of the Confederacy.
In another way, If you think of the Confederacy from an economic standpoint....Slavery is the ultimate aim
of capitalism.....it is the lowest possible wage with all profits going to the "CEO".
"
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)And isn't that the final goal of the TPP and other trade agreements?
reformist2
(9,841 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)Virginia is hardly like places like Alabama. NoVA and Charlottesville (U of VA) are not "old south" at all and the other metro areas generally are blue--with non-Latino white voters as well as members of other groups.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
reformist2
(9,841 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)about these 5 states.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)They were not predicting what percent of the vote each candidate would get (see the 538 website for details). They were calculating the odds of winning, and 51% is as close to not winning at it could possibly be. That is the nature of statistics.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)It was 78% for Clinton all the way up until the very last day or two.
And Sanders ended up, not squeaking out a win but, winning the state by more than 10%.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Which is what makes it a miss.
mythology
(9,527 posts)Means they have no clue.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)MI, IL, OH.....we will see how those states go.
spooky3
(34,476 posts)Sanders so far has won only where the percentage of non-Latino white voters is very high - and Clinton is still winning considerable %s of these voters in most states.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)Downwinder
(12,869 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...and why none of her supporters seem to think that is a problem is beyond me.
spooky3
(34,476 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Hint, about +20% over Hillary.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)spooky3
(34,476 posts)538 is predicting wins for Clinton in MI, OH, IL, FL, and NC.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)2008 was not
Tanuki
(14,920 posts)The things you learn on DU these days!
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)when Hillary loses.
consciouslocs
(43 posts)And the votes of the POC in the Southern States do not matter either.
Eko
(7,351 posts)she can only win in the south, now its she cant win big.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Hillary is already resorting to getting donations from NRA lobbyists.
She won't be able to compete without more donations from Billionaires to her SuperPAC.
It costs money to run a 50 state campaign, and her sources are drying up.
onenote
(42,759 posts)no difficulty winning those states in the General.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)onenote
(42,759 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)win southern states in the GE.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Guaranteed.
theboss
(10,491 posts)We're doomed.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)HRC is + 29 in Florida:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html
HRC is +21 in New York:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html
HRC is + 19 in Pennsylvania:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html
HRCis + 21 in Ohio:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html
HRC is + 19 in Illinois:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html
HRC is + 19 in North Carolina:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html
HRC is +14 in California:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html
HRC is +19 In Michigan:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
spooky3
(34,476 posts)thanks for the links.
FarPoint
(12,437 posts)No difference.....
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)The future primaries and caucuses favor Bernie more and more and his momentum will grow.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)The four states he won has less population than the state of Texas...
That's like saying four pennies is the same as four dollars, because.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)warrprayer
(4,734 posts)stevil
(1,537 posts)Disenfranchise much? Keep it up. Please.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)The South is her firewall. I just don't think that she has much else.
stevil
(1,537 posts)At the peril of your wishful thinking. Southern Democrats are Democrats, best wishes.
ismnotwasm
(42,008 posts)It's soothing
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)ismnotwasm
(42,008 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)SMC22307
(8,090 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)an angel gets its wings.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)and of black voters.
onenote
(42,759 posts)I didn't know that.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Hillary is getting more than just black votes, she is also getting conservative white votes
Tanuki
(14,920 posts)NOT a conservative, nor are her voters, white or black, in the South or anywhere else. Where do people get such an odd notion?
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Tanuki
(14,920 posts)many Clinton voters, and not one of them is a conservative. The conservatives I encounter are Republicans or Libertarian, and they often have a visceral dislike for Clinton.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)There is a difference.
consciouslocs
(43 posts)I'm an African American Southerner and not seeing a coalition between conservative white people and AAs. Understand that it might appear that way, but that is not what I am getting from my relatives in SC or Georgia.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)It is simply an effect based on the viewpoint of the two groups.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Those are all states (plus DC) where Clinton can win, whether by a large margin or not. Not to mention MO, LA, MS, etc. Basically any state with a sizeable percentage of POC.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Beacool
(30,251 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...but it seems quite a few folks on this site fail to understand basic math, demographics and how the nominating process works. I'm not a Clinton/neoliberal supporter, but reality is reality.
Beacool
(30,251 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Without it, it will be impossible for him to win the GE
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)why all those head-to-head polls say just the opposite, that BERNIE is the most electable and beats ALL of the GOP candidates by large margins and Hillary does not.
I guess all those polls and all those people they have talked to for MONTHS now are all wrong and that you guys know better. Is that it?
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Without it, he won't win neither the primary or the GE.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Because that's where she will need them in the GE.
onenote
(42,759 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)I was simply responding to this.....
.Sanders can't get the minority vote. Without it, it will be impossible for him to win the GE
I have no idea how young white "progressive" voters feel, since I am neither young nor white.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)news to me
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Oh wait ... That question has already been answered!
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)includes Latinos, right? You guys seem to forget that part.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Quite impressive, right?
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)I go with what I'm hearing/seeing on the ground and Latinos are NOT liking the Hills here in the San Joaquin Valley. It's a new day.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)I'm telling you what I am hearing/seeing on the ground here in the San Joaquin Valley. Don't count yer chickens is all I'm saying.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)"counting yer chickens"? In any case, you are the one doing that, saying that the minuscule sample of what you see around you, has more weight than the actual results from several states, plus the nationwide Univision poll
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:10 PM - Edit history (1)
When 538 forgets to include the word "latino" in their article claiming Clinton's gonna win, you realize their analysis is a tad shallow.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)So clearly Sanders will win all blacks, right?
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)What does that tell you?
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)I no longer thing DWS is an incompetent , backstabbing, third way lackey of the Establishment controlled by the Clinton Machine to sway the election to HRC at all costs.
She is the greatest sleeper agent/political suicide bomber/ Toxic adviser in the history of republican/ Carl Rovian tricks. She has bamboozled an organization, lead by someone twisted and vain enough to dodge FOIA requests with a private server and 2+ cloud backups as though there was no concern to web security (despite detailed knowledge of our own internet spying), to trust her with leadership.
DWS has cost us 900+ elected offices. You cannot be dumb enough to do that by accident and still remember to wear pants everyday. It had to be deliberate.
Beacool
(30,251 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)snap snap to rainbows and unicorns.
Beacool
(30,251 posts)Nope, it's not the Hillary supporters who are dreaming. We are counting pledged delegates.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)the only thing that matters is the delegate count. And Bernie got his ass handed him in that regard.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Hillary's coronation is still imaginary.
hack89
(39,171 posts)he needs blow out wins to catch up. He doesn't have the support to pull that off.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Why don't we let the voters decide?
hack89
(39,171 posts)the trend in both is not favorable to Bernie.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)Beacool
(30,251 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)fierywoman
(7,694 posts)Hill's negatives are too high to win the general... as are Trump's. I'm merely a classical musician, so what do I know? but I think her negatives are already bringing down her numbers from previous elections she's run in.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)that's where a substantial amount of Clinton's support in the South has come from, and it's one of the key constituencies for a Democratic candidate in a general election; dismissing the results as "the Confederacy" is kind of ignorant of political and demographic realities.
consciouslocs
(43 posts)Notwithstanding the "Confederacy" discussion, whoever ultimately wins the nomination will look for high turnout among key, reliable constituencies in the swing States to win. I think with AA demographic shifts back South, these trends could offer insight into voting that will occur in other regions.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Uh, no.
The electoral college means Southern blacks can not win the general election for Clinton. Their votes will not result in Democratic electors.
Now, if you were trying to claim Southern blacks are the same as every other minority group, you should probably travel a bit more.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)and African-American voters are a key constituency for a Democrat (nationally, not just in the South) who overwhelmingly support Clinton over Sanders. (I'm aware of how the Electoral College works and I am also aware most of the South will never go Democratic in a general election, thanks.)
aspirant
(3,533 posts)Rincewind
(1,205 posts)I never knew Iowa and Massachusetts were part of the Confederacy. By the way, Secretary Clinton is also leading in the polls of the deep Southern state of Illinois.
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)I'm a Southerner and never knew it!
Face it folks. Without minorities, Mr. Sanders is not going to get the nomination. Congratulations on the wins he did get, but you know what? My candidate did better.
To those of you who think because the states she won tend to be Red in GE they don't count? Get over it. Every vote counts. No matter WHERE it is cast.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Best not nominate her, lest she loses the GE rather than the primaries.
Buzz cook
(2,474 posts)nt
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)With comments like that you play right into the hands of those who see Sanders as a white candidate from a white state who apparently speaks only to white voters.
consciouslocs
(43 posts)It has been eye-opening, this election cycle, to see how readily some are willing to write off or devalue the votes of a significant portion of the DEM base over the candidate they chose.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)within the former Confederate states.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,192 posts)The south and the 538 blog joined many others that have been thrown under the Bernie bus.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)shenmue
(38,506 posts)Keep digging.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Just a matter of time . . . .
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Sanders can't win in states that aren't as white as the driven snow.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Also, she is getting much more than just votes of POC in the south.
My point is that Hillary is strong ONLY in the south.
Zorra
(27,670 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I look forward to your cogent analyses.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Shutting down polls is cheating. The lazy leisure class may not get it that working people are so busy that that might have been the only time those voters could vote. It's cheating.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)bigtree
(86,005 posts)...we hear you Sanders folks.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Hillary supporters have been chanting for months that Bernie can't win the votes of POC.
That is the despicable thing.
Whenever Bernie does, as he did in NH....it is discounted.
I was drawn to Bernie as much for his personal history as his policies. The policies that
Hillary has actively supported have damaged us all, but particularly the black community.
But I have accepted the fact that, Hillary, who used dog-whistle racism in 2008 against Barack Obama,
is the choice of black voters in the south. I had a real problem with it, and I have never forgiven her
for it. Some black people are still angry about it, but apparently
most black people in the south don't have a problem with it.
I am forced to accept that reality. I also accept the fact that southern white Democrats, who are more
conservative, also are far more likely to support Hillary. Hence, the power of the Southern firewall.
I don't believe that either element of Hillary's firewall exist outside of the south.
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)...our at least I am hoping it will. But I am not so sure now because of the Latino and Asian votes.
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)Michigan? Ohio? Illinois?
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)brooklynite
(94,727 posts)We have her record of winning Ohio and Michigan from 2008 (IL was Obama's home State; Chicago demographics suggest she'll pick it up)
We have current polling that has her up 15-20 pts.
We have turnout data that shows the "millions of disaffected voters" aren't turning out for Sanders.
I feel comfortable making an prediction that Clinton will pick up all of the large Primary States in the next two weeks.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)I am not omniscient, so I can't predict. Sometimes polls are right, and sometimes they are wrong.
The "millions of disaffected voters" reference has to do with the GE. Bernie has to go to all 50 states and spread his message. Then we will see if he has been able to do that.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)why is that?
We'll see in the next few weeks what her margins will be in Michigan, Illinois & Ohio.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)we will see how it goes.
Protalker
(418 posts)Chris Matthews interview with Bernie was very instructive. Matthews tried several times to give him names. In the House and Senate who would push his agenda. Bernie's response was a macro the people will see to it. Youth want macro and people who pay taxes and live on family budgets want names of people who will make it happen.