2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: Hillary Clinton’s Got This
FiveThirtyEight:Weve now seen 15 states vote in the Democratic contest, and its clear that Clintons coalition is wider than Sanderss. Sanders has won only in relatively small states where black voters make up less than 10 percent of the population. Thats not going to work this year when black voters are likely to make up more than 20 percent of Democratic primary voters nationwide.
On Tuesday, we saw why. As she did in Nevada and South Carolina, Clinton won huge margins of black voters. Her worst performance was in Oklahoma, where 71 percent of black voters in the Democratic primary chose her. In Alabama, she won 93 percent of black voters on her way to winning 78 percent of Democrats overall. Clinton took no less than 64 percent of the overall vote in the southern states she won.
It wasnt just just black voters, either: Clinton dominated with Hispanics in Texas. There had been some questions about how Hispanics voted in Nevada, but there was little doubt in Texas. The exit poll showed Clinton with a 42 percentage point win among Hispanics, about the margin she won in counties such as Hidalgo, where Hispanics make up 91 percent of the population. Those results bode well for Clinton in states such as Arizona, California, Florida and New Mexico.
Spazito
(50,453 posts)Very interesting read, thanks for posting it.
WDIM
(1,662 posts)that they support the closest thing to a Republican the Democrats have?
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)With your logic, should we not count Bernie's win in Oklahoma?
frazzled
(18,402 posts)It's true: deep red states will be won by Republicans in the general. So it doesn't matter whether Hillary or Bernie wins them.
By the same token, deep blue states will be won by Democrats in the general. So it doesn't matter whether Hillary or Bernie wins them.
The swing states may possibly hold some potential indications about the general, but not based on who wins the Democratic primaries, but rather on strength of turnouts of each party in those states. Even then it's not dispositive. The Republican primary is far more contentious this year, and so it would not be surprising for it to draw more Republicans into the fray (if only because the Cruz and Rubio voters, who together outnumber the Trump voters) are trying for a last stand to block frontrunner Trump. (They're splitting the not-Trump vote, however, unlike in the Democratic contest, where there is only one not-Clinton).
The primary is a contest among Democrats (or Democratic leaners) only, to determine who should be the Democratic nominee. It's a preference choice for the party alone. Whoever gets the requisite 2,382 pledged delegates will win it. That's how it works. It doesn't matter at all what kind of state the wins come from. All the people voting are legitimate Democratic voters, and it's truly insulting to dismiss them.
The Democrats cannot win in November if they don't have the black and Latino voters coming out. Clinton has those voters right now, as the Southern States, and the first large Hispanic-voting state (Texas) have shown categorically.
datguy_6
(176 posts)And then all of those Super Delegates will flee like rats on the Titanic...
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)I am interested is seeing how her wins on super Tuesday affect the coming races.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)"The exit poll showed Clinton with a 42 percentage point win among Hispanics, about the margin she won in counties such as Hidalgo, where Hispanics make up 91 percent of the population. Those results bode well for Clinton in states such as Arizona, California, Florida and New Mexico."