2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAnd how about that one poll showing Obama up a few in AZ. Can Obama expand the map?
Is the AZ poll a good one? What would account for his boost there? Can he expand the map and make Mittens have to defend some territory? Do we expect Mittens to fade?
oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)With Carmona on Wednesday night and with Donnelly on Thursday.
kansasobama
(609 posts)Hello:
I am a 200% supporter but I don't think expansion is a possibility. If AZ is competitive that is good news because Mitch will have to go there. The biggest scare we are having is NH. That would be a killer. We need to hold Nevada, NH, and Iowa. How is it looking out there?
I cannot believe Floridians are going for Mitt.
And, yes, they really need to let the Big Dawg loose (Clinton). In 2000, Gore did not use Clinton (because of pride). Forget pride and ego. Let the big Dog bark. And, for NH, Obama needs to send Kerry out there.
Can we hold New Mexico?
Polls are so close. To be frank, it is all about turnout. If all registered dems vote, we win. if we sit around and say "oh, I won't mater" we will lose. It is that close.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Unless something has suddenly changed.
Neither campaign is really even contesting the state, and even Rasmussen had a poll out earlier this week showing OBAMA + 11.
marshall7798
(3 posts)One poll from a shitty pollster and you think now your going to get AZ and Indiana. Lets put aside the fact that Obama has to debate the guy who handed him his ass, 2 more times, you think 2 polls are going to change everything. This election will be even right up until the end.
Romney's path to the Presidency- 191+FL,NC,VA,NH,WI and CO. All of which he is leading or within the MOE.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Arizona as a close race is plausible. A September poll showed Romney leading by only 3 points.
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf
There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.
Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 the big Latino vote that you didnt see coming
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630
Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145
Nate Silver:
http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)The Debate Tsunami is over.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)he said in his first post he is a republican.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)that is a huge stretch. the only reason some claimed romney "won" was because he
interrupted the president and moderator and spun some tall tales about how he's
now a moderate and how we should forget everything else that he ever said.
Obama won on substance, truth telling, and actiing PRESIDENTIAL.
funny how all republicans are crying foul that VP Biden interrupted and smiled
when Romney did the same thing and got praised for it. HYPOCRITES!
And the HUGE difference between Biden and Romney's aggressive styles?
BIDEN HAD THE TRUTH ON HIS SIDE and did NOT FLIP FLOP on Obama's
policies. Romney flip flopped all over himself.
exboyfil
(17,863 posts)I was surprised that they may Michigan and Pennsylvania toss ups. With that the case (a big assumption) then the election is about even. I wonder what justification they have for the change. If it is close in those two states, then Obama does not win Ohio and probably loses (I don't believe it).
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)from the Detroit News. An interview last week with a Romney campaign official (the Manager, if I remember correctly) saying "they can win without Michigan." That's a concession and I suspect the Romney campaign will abandon it, just as John McCain did.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)underpants
(182,826 posts)I understand from people inside a Senate race that OFA has seen good numbers AZ for a while but decided to stick with their operations already in place.
If it happens (like Indiana in 08) it happens if not - nothing more expended nothing lost.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Then, put some resources into SC and TN. Just to make mitt worry.
zach1845
(30 posts)Not waste resources on arizona. PPP just had Romney +9 before the debates 2 weeks ago. It would be a huge uphill fight. Indiana would also be a waste. Work on securing wisconsin and ohio, and fight hard in colorada and NH as republicans outnumber dems and are up with early/absintee ballots. NH is always wishy washy and will flip in either way at the drop of a hat. If he puts money in IN and AZ then that is less he can put into iowa, wis, nh, co, NV ect.