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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:20 PM Oct 2012

Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote



Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote

See this post:

Did anyone pick up on this Nate Silver tweet? Hello!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021533551

I still think Nate is underestimating the probability that Arizona is in play. I mean, this is just being addressed now? A September poll showed Romney leading by only 3 points.

Arizona (Romney +3): For the first time, we have included Arizona as a stand-alone state, and find Mitt Romney leading 48% to 45%. Romney is also winning independents in the state (47% to 42%), while President Obama is performing very well among Hispanics (58% to 28%). This represents an improvement on his result among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008, where he defeated John McCain by 15 points among that k ey group.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630

Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145

Nate:

Although AZ poll very likely an outlier, one scary thing for Romney is that it included Spanish-language interviews. (1/3)

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1533763

26 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote (Original Post) ProSense Oct 2012 OP
What I find most puzzling about that chart SheilaT Oct 2012 #1
It does make a difference in Texas. Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #3
What I'm noticing is that the chart shows SheilaT Oct 2012 #4
Ah, I see. That's just statistics. Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #6
There was a poll about a month ago. LisaL Oct 2012 #18
Texas is really not that red anymore... it will be in play by 2016 budkin Oct 2012 #5
Yes, a Democrat like Hillary or someone else might be able to win Texas TroyD Oct 2012 #9
Jimmy Carter won Texas in 1976. ProSense Oct 2012 #13
I'm confused, too adigal Oct 2012 #22
It's red for strong Romney and Obama's chance goes up to 8 percent. Still, ProSense Oct 2012 #23
In Colorado and Florida it makes all the difference in the world. Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #2
The chart shows a clear impact. n/t ProSense Oct 2012 #7
Shhh. Don't tell the Romney campaign. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #8
It's OK - they don't intend to do any math... dchill Oct 2012 #17
this is amusing. first, good on ya, Arizona. secondly, I thought the meme was hate nate, he's a roguevalley Oct 2012 #10
What does this have to do with the OP? n/t ProSense Oct 2012 #12
not much beyond a commentary about the Hate/Love Nate threads lately. 'S all. roguevalley Oct 2012 #24
if you think... mshasta Oct 2012 #11
This post makes no sense. ProSense Oct 2012 #14
no Im not attacking latinos mshasta Oct 2012 #15
Maybe you'll be surprised. ProSense Oct 2012 #16
The polls are based on the opinions of registered voters. GoCubsGo Oct 2012 #21
I was hoping for that! "The Latino Vote you didn't see Cha Oct 2012 #19
They saw it coming. ProSense Oct 2012 #20
I don't think Nate knows what is going on in Arizona. Major Hogwash Oct 2012 #25
Yeah, but can you outvote the ignorant white folks.... ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #26
 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
1. What I find most puzzling about that chart
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:27 PM
Oct 2012

is that the Hispanic vote apparently makes no difference whatsoever in Texas? Really? Okay, I get it that with or without the Hispanic vote Texas as a state will go for Romney, those poor deluded fools, but doesn't Texas have a significant Hispanic population? Or am I just imagining that very long border with Mexico?

Lone_Star_Dem

(28,158 posts)
3. It does make a difference in Texas.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:53 PM
Oct 2012

The problem we've had in Texas is multi layered. Our Latino population does elect Democratic leaders on lower/local levels. South Texas is solidly blue, also.
However, Texas is constantly diluting the Latino vote, or attempting to, via redistricting. Also, voter intimidation/suppression attempts have an impact. If nothing else on a psychological level. We also need to do much more work GOTV down here.

Then there's the huge rural (read: Teabagger) population to contend with.

In two more presidential elections I predict Texas will be a swing state. That is if we keep fighting for our minorities right to fair representation, and against voter suppression.

We're close, but not there yet.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
4. What I'm noticing is that the chart shows
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:16 PM
Oct 2012

Obama with zero percent chance to win, even including the Hispanic vote. Surely, the Hispanic vote, if it's going to Obama in Texas the way it is everywhere else, would move Obama's chance for a win there to at least two or three percent. Again, I understand why Romney will take Texas, but I'd think the Hispanic vote would mean something there.

Lone_Star_Dem

(28,158 posts)
6. Ah, I see. That's just statistics.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:39 PM
Oct 2012

There's been no presidential polling in Texas recently. While Obama won 44% of the vote here in 2008. Including something like 63% of the Latino vote Even with more of the Latino vote this year, there's just not enough registered Dem voters to pull a win. Thus the 0% chance.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
18. There was a poll about a month ago.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:54 AM
Oct 2012

Obama is trailing by 20 % in TX.
He doesn't have a shot in TX at all.
TX is CA in reverse.

budkin

(6,703 posts)
5. Texas is really not that red anymore... it will be in play by 2016
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:16 PM
Oct 2012

I live here and can see it all around... things are changing for the better!

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
9. Yes, a Democrat like Hillary or someone else might be able to win Texas
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:46 PM
Oct 2012

Obama faces too many obstacles right now as well as prejudice etc, so it's not a state he can win, but a Democrat with Southern appeal and connections like Hillary might be able to do so.

 

adigal

(7,581 posts)
22. I'm confused, too
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:00 PM
Oct 2012

Is red for Romney? So why doesn't Arizona go up when it is adjusted for Hispanic votes? It goes from 4% Romney to 8% Romney?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
23. It's red for strong Romney and Obama's chance goes up to 8 percent. Still,
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:27 PM
Oct 2012

I think this is a huge underestimation.

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
10. this is amusing. first, good on ya, Arizona. secondly, I thought the meme was hate nate, he's a
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:50 PM
Oct 2012

whore. Amazing, this place.

mshasta

(2,108 posts)
11. if you think...
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:57 PM
Oct 2012

that Hispanics are all Catholics ready to vote...fucking wrong!!..great part of latinos are Jehovah's witnesses who believed is that they don't get involved in government issues ..and vote are one of the things that they preach not to do. fuckers!...


ProSense

(116,464 posts)
14. This post makes no sense.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:51 AM
Oct 2012

Are you attacking Latinos or Jehovah Witnesses?

Either way, it's incoherent.

mshasta

(2,108 posts)
15. no Im not attacking latinos
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:23 AM
Oct 2012

I am one of them...I know that many of my people who are Hispanic -citizens they will not vote because of their religious believes and just happens that the great majority of them are Jehovah witness...

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
16. Maybe you'll be surprised.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:40 AM
Oct 2012

The problem with the polling is undersampling Latinos. That's not only about participation, but also the growth in the number of Latino voters. The enthusiasm gap might be indicative of participation, but the polls aren't modeled on recent growth among Latino voters.

GoCubsGo

(32,084 posts)
21. The polls are based on the opinions of registered voters.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:47 AM
Oct 2012

If Jehovah's Witnesses don't believe they should not be involved in government issues, then they most likely have not even registered to vote, and are therefore irrelevant to these polls.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
20. They saw it coming.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:37 AM
Oct 2012

Republicans spent the last two years trying to suppress the vote. The pollsters spent the last couple of years ignoring it, likely not intentional because they're relying on data from previous elections.

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
25. I don't think Nate knows what is going on in Arizona.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:33 PM
Oct 2012

I have a good friend that lives in Arizona and he said that they have had it with their ignorant Governor after the last year and a half.
He said that they just went too far with their stupid "show me your papers" law that they tried to pass last year and it just made most of them more angry about it.

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
26. Yeah, but can you outvote the ignorant white folks....
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:37 PM
Oct 2012

....who think Brewer is great?

I think Arizona is another cycle away from being a swing state. It's close, though.

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