2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote
See this post:
Did anyone pick up on this Nate Silver tweet? Hello!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021533551
I still think Nate is underestimating the probability that Arizona is in play. I mean, this is just being addressed now? A September poll showed Romney leading by only 3 points.
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf
There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.
Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 the big Latino vote that you didnt see coming
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630
Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145
Nate:
http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1533763
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)is that the Hispanic vote apparently makes no difference whatsoever in Texas? Really? Okay, I get it that with or without the Hispanic vote Texas as a state will go for Romney, those poor deluded fools, but doesn't Texas have a significant Hispanic population? Or am I just imagining that very long border with Mexico?
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)The problem we've had in Texas is multi layered. Our Latino population does elect Democratic leaders on lower/local levels. South Texas is solidly blue, also.
However, Texas is constantly diluting the Latino vote, or attempting to, via redistricting. Also, voter intimidation/suppression attempts have an impact. If nothing else on a psychological level. We also need to do much more work GOTV down here.
Then there's the huge rural (read: Teabagger) population to contend with.
In two more presidential elections I predict Texas will be a swing state. That is if we keep fighting for our minorities right to fair representation, and against voter suppression.
We're close, but not there yet.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Obama with zero percent chance to win, even including the Hispanic vote. Surely, the Hispanic vote, if it's going to Obama in Texas the way it is everywhere else, would move Obama's chance for a win there to at least two or three percent. Again, I understand why Romney will take Texas, but I'd think the Hispanic vote would mean something there.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)There's been no presidential polling in Texas recently. While Obama won 44% of the vote here in 2008. Including something like 63% of the Latino vote Even with more of the Latino vote this year, there's just not enough registered Dem voters to pull a win. Thus the 0% chance.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Obama is trailing by 20 % in TX.
He doesn't have a shot in TX at all.
TX is CA in reverse.
budkin
(6,703 posts)I live here and can see it all around... things are changing for the better!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Obama faces too many obstacles right now as well as prejudice etc, so it's not a state he can win, but a Democrat with Southern appeal and connections like Hillary might be able to do so.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Every Democrat currently faces obstacles in Texas.
adigal
(7,581 posts)Is red for Romney? So why doesn't Arizona go up when it is adjusted for Hispanic votes? It goes from 4% Romney to 8% Romney?
ProSense
(116,464 posts)I think this is a huge underestimation.
Baitball Blogger
(46,720 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)dchill
(38,502 posts)'Til after the election, dontcha know...
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)whore. Amazing, this place.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)mshasta
(2,108 posts)that Hispanics are all Catholics ready to vote...fucking wrong!!..great part of latinos are Jehovah's witnesses who believed is that they don't get involved in government issues ..and vote are one of the things that they preach not to do. fuckers!...
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Are you attacking Latinos or Jehovah Witnesses?
Either way, it's incoherent.
mshasta
(2,108 posts)I am one of them...I know that many of my people who are Hispanic -citizens they will not vote because of their religious believes and just happens that the great majority of them are Jehovah witness...
ProSense
(116,464 posts)The problem with the polling is undersampling Latinos. That's not only about participation, but also the growth in the number of Latino voters. The enthusiasm gap might be indicative of participation, but the polls aren't modeled on recent growth among Latino voters.
GoCubsGo
(32,084 posts)If Jehovah's Witnesses don't believe they should not be involved in government issues, then they most likely have not even registered to vote, and are therefore irrelevant to these polls.
Cha
(297,275 posts)coming!" Hope it Really Surprises!
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Republicans spent the last two years trying to suppress the vote. The pollsters spent the last couple of years ignoring it, likely not intentional because they're relying on data from previous elections.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)I have a good friend that lives in Arizona and he said that they have had it with their ignorant Governor after the last year and a half.
He said that they just went too far with their stupid "show me your papers" law that they tried to pass last year and it just made most of them more angry about it.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)....who think Brewer is great?
I think Arizona is another cycle away from being a swing state. It's close, though.