2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPrimaries after March 15. Lots of them. Diary from Daily Kos.
Do the Democratic Primaries conclude on March 15th? No they conclude on June 14thJust a list of the primaries after the date of transition to general election mode at Daily Kos.
Idaho March 22nd
Alaska March 26th
Hawaii March 26th
Washington March 26th
Wisconsin April 5th
Wyoming April 9th
New York April 19th
Connecticut April 26th
Delaware April 26th
Maryland April 26th
Pennsylvania April 26th
Rhode Island April 26th
Indiana May 3rd
Nebraska May 10th
West Virginia May 10th
Oregon May 17th
California June 7th
Montana June 7th
New Jersey June 7th
New Mexico June 7th
North Dakota June 7th
South Dakota June 7th
District of Columbia June 14th
fredamae
(4,458 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)She leads in the polling in most of them especially the big ones.
madfloridian
(88,117 posts)Bernie's still hanging around.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)We need his message and his followers.
senz
(11,945 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)and 53.1% of all Super delegates.
DK wants us to unite behind a candidate when we're only 1/2 done voting?
FUCK THAT NOISE.
hack89
(39,171 posts)when you reach the point where Bernie has to win states by impossible margins to overcome Hillary's lead then it is over regardless of how many states are left.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)after March 15th it will be very hard for Bernie to articulate a reasonable path to the nomination.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)So we are not there yet.
hack89
(39,171 posts)538 has estimated how many delegates each candidate would need in each primary contest to win the nomination. It then tracks how successful each is in reaching their target goals. It is simple math. If Bernie doesn't make his targets in each state then he can't mathematically win. The problem for him is that Hillary has piled up some blow out wins in states with a lot of delegates. Since delegates are awarded proportionally, roughly splitting the delegates with Hillary going forward doesn't help Bernie. That is why people make such a big deal about Super Tuesday and the March 15th primaries - it puts him in a big hole and requires even bigger victories in subsequent states just to pull even.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Right now he is under performing.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)That's when Hillary bowed out in 2008.
hack89
(39,171 posts)she has reassembled the Obama coalition. That should scare the hell out of Bernie.
Orange Butterfly
(205 posts)marew
(1,588 posts)And the "super delegate" issue cancels out Sanders votes. Corruption at its best!
Orange Butterfly
(205 posts)Lee Fang of The Intercept uncovered that x15 super-delegates are not elected officials! They are lobbyists!!! Each delegate, btw, represents many individual vote-voices. It is an outrage.
I now believe DWS is actually a republican plant. She is co-author of a banking bill that de-regulates predator payday lending loans on a national scale. Her list of transgressions against the DFL party is long and cuts deep into its soul.
I am watching the race with Tim Canova as he primary's DWS for her seat. Go Tim!!!
I really dislike injustice. Thanks for listening!
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Wishful thinking on their parts.
jcgoldie
(11,646 posts)When one team leads a ballgame by 40 points or pick your insurmountable number at halftime... they still play the 2nd half... doesn't mean many people will be watching.
LonePirate
(13,431 posts)fredamae
(4,458 posts)madfloridian
(88,117 posts)In most scenarios where Sanders wins, he doesnt retake the lead until June 7, when five states including California cast their ballots.
Hey such an advantage in that case to make sure we don't have a place to post negative stuff against Hillary.
senz
(11,945 posts)Most important take-away from your excellent link.
djean111
(14,255 posts)Done!!!!!!!! Not a hit from me, any more, and unsubscribed from the mailing list. Easy peasy.
As I learned from Celine Dion - my heart, and my life - will go on.
MisterP
(23,730 posts)and that it's the best way to run the party
madfloridian
(88,117 posts)Giving a kick.
suffragette
(12,232 posts)Interesting date they've picked to push for the end of Bernie's campaign.
I'm one of the many whose caucus is after that, and yes, I want the opportunity to be heard.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)it necessary for people who are not registered Dems to register on Oct 9th of last year BEFORE the first debate. I got some people registered as I knew about that date.
But people who are getting to know Bernie now will not be allowed to switch parties.
So I knew the fix was in.
They have a candidate they know can't win unless they do stuff like this or like what Markos is doing.
And they cant stop Bernie or his supporters with all the negative campaigning and dirty tricks and media blackouts.
He's going to win and maybe BECAUSE of what they are doing their candidate will not get the support she needs.
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)A Little Weird
(1,754 posts)KelleyKramer
(8,982 posts)He posted it yesterday, that's his new rule for Dailykos.. on March 15 the primaries are effectively over.
You get one guess what candidate he supports
madfloridian
(88,117 posts)It's been worse this time...more than I remember. Everyone's declaring a winner as though there were never any mitigating circumstances.