2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhere things stand before results come in: HRC is at 129% of her target
Bernie is at 73% of his.
After Super Tuesday, the Democratic delegate race really isn't much of one. Hillary Clinton expanded her lead in pledged delegates to 598 to 407, thanks to huge margins among African-Americans in states like Alabama and Georgia and solid margins among Latinos in Texas. Sanders's wins in the caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota, as well as Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont, were not nearly sufficient to offset Clinton's leads in larger states.
At this point, Clinton is at 129 percent of her cumulative delegate target, to just 73 percent for Sanders, meaning she is well on track for the nomination.
What's more, according to the Associated Press, Clinton maintains a lead of 449 to 19 in superdelegates, the party leaders and elected officials who get automatic votes at the convention. When added together, that gives Clinton 1,047 delegates to Sanders's 426. That means Sanders would need to win roughly 59 percent of remaining pledged delegates and uncommitted superdelegates just to pull even. That's next to impossible, given that Democratic primaries award delegates proportionally.
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http://cookpolitical.com/story/9327
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)Anyway, that's got to be Hillarymath. How dare you!!!!!
UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)I just don't see how Sanders increases his margins with Black voters. South Carolina was the first real test of him being able to win a diverse state and it was pretty bad, and the margins in states since then where the Black population was enough to make an impact completely rebuked him. And when we talk about millenials we need to start clarifying that because while closer, Black millenials still backed Clinton. So yeah...with the proportional system out there, I just don't see how he gets ahead. My state doesn't vote until late April and I'm still undecided but articles like this make me feel like its really not gonna matter for me in the end because it will pretty much be decided. Still gonna vote though...just not sure who I am voting for yet.
noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)we have superdelegates being cynically used to try to suppress the vote. The superdelegates don't count at all prior to the actual convention. Stop trying to fool people. It's shameful.
randome
(34,845 posts)It's extremely unlikely that enough super-delegates will change their vote. Some may, but not enough to make a difference.
Again, that's just math.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]No squirrels were harmed in the making of this post. Yet.[/center][/font][hr]
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Is pushing hard. I love to see the numbers rising.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)In round dollar figures...