Bernie is getting my vote on March 26.

Human beings can be rather unpredictable.

Last edited Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:56 PM - Edit history (2)

that Bernie would have to win subsequent states with very high victory margins. Winning states is not good enough- he has to start blowing out Hillary in big states. All the polls say it is not going to happen. He will win states but not win enough delegates.

Last edited Sun Mar 6, 2016, 02:33 PM - Edit history (1)

With no indication that he knows how to turn his campaign around.

And the race will not end then.

538 has estimated how many delegates each candidate would need in each primary contest to win the nomination. It then tracks how successful each is in reaching their target goals. It is simple math. If Bernie doesn't make his targets in each state then he can't mathematically win. The problem for him is that Hillary has piled up some blow out wins in states with a lot of delegates. Since delegates are awarded proportionally, roughly splitting the delegates with Hillary going forward doesn't help Bernie. That is why people make such a big deal about Super Tuesday and the March 15th primaries - it puts him in a big hole and requires even bigger victories in subsequent states just to pull even.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Right now he is under performing.

But Maine has only 25 pledged delegates. After today, he is behind by more than 200 pledged delegates:

Hillary Clinton 663
Bernie Sanders 457

Florida and Illinois are coming up on March 15: a total of 370 delegates at stake in those two states alone. It's a tough row to hoe.

136 delegates available.

Clinton is up by 50 pts in MS and 25 pts in MI.

She could potentially pick up 40-50 delegates on Tuesday.

Sid

He'd have to collect 18 of 25 delegates available.

Does anyone really think he's going to win Maine by 46 points?

Sid

He would have lost LA whether it was held today, yesterday, or tomorrow. He won two states vs. Hillary's one. That's a win in anybody's book.

If just winning states mattered,mthe GOP would win every election.

The point is, if LA voted a week ago then Bernie's wins yesterday would have been viewed as a +23 (or whatever it was) delegate gain.

On Super Tuesday by an even bigger margin.

to win some states with blowout numbers.
he can't afford very many more winning days like this one.

are there any states where's he polling far enough ahead that he can
start to close the gap?

Did you see Jon? That startled me!

I just pop in occasionally to edify the fine minds here with the grand actuality of fact.

He actually did an OP. Which was from the POV of a Bernie fan, but still didn't go over well with SBS fans. Oh well.
Yes. HE IS BACK!! Next comes Sundog!

I guess I'll have to renew my membership so I can search on that em effer!

Though I thought I had given this one donation one time where I was promised eternal membership. Oh, DU.

I don't think so.

HA. She is a pip.

It's got a pretty good track record.

MATH.

Are you surviving the primary wars so far?

I will be happy and working for whoever wins the primary. It gets more and more trollish in here though, embarrassing.

I voted early in the March 15 Illinois primary. DU will improve once the nominee is chosen and the focus (hopefully) will go back to the Republicans and Trump or Cruz.

This is a paper cut.

Today did not go in a favorable direction for Senator Sanders.

Work hard for your candidate!

My primary isn't until May 17. I may have decided whom I will vote for by that date.

into his states and make his case. It also shows that H isn't inevitable. Today could have been better for Bernie, but was still a strong day for him in my book.

Best to you. Work hard for your candidate, whoever that may be!

There is not going to be a floor fight. First vote and it will be over.

Wow. Brutal.

to discourage people from voting for Sanders" really sad and pitiful?

Are there really that many people here that are so terrified by a detailed, factual analysis because it tells them something that they CLEARLY and desperately don't want to hear?? Since when is discussing reality "suppressing" people's votes?? What in the world is going on??

the winning side which creates a momentum, so they don't want to hear the truth. I totally get it.


But meanwhile, every little campaign flyer or event, the DNC not registering voters, or caucus that does not have enough parking spots is "dirty tricks" and "voter suppression". It's quite amazing to hear people say walking four blocks to vote is too damned much, it reeks of privilege and ignorance.

The insistence that the illuminati, chemtrails, Stonehenge, every damn thing in the world is somehow "keeping" Sanders out of the White House is just insane.

It is clear that it is the DEMOCRATIC VOTERS keeping Sanders at arm's length. The reasons for that are myriad but pretending like you said that it's because of "dirty tricks" and every half assed idea -- I even saw one thread where people were screaming that Hillary campaign callers were hanging up when people said they were voting Sanders and not telling them when/where to vote in the primary!! Oh the fucking horror! As if the Sanders campaign can't build a web site, print fliers or make calls of their own telling people win/where to turn out! -- or cause "Clinton called Sanders a racist" is just mortifying. It is embarrassing, mortifying and simply incredibly dumb to boot. Astonishing it's coming from the side that loves to paint itself as smarter and more informed than everyone else.

know better than some of the BS they post, so it is what it is. Just like claiming DUers called Bernie a racist over a "not enough" post- a bullshit tactic. I get that there are a LOT of first time voters, but they should do themselves a favor before posting CTs and nonsense. It is crazy.

For instance- Maine's caucus is so crowded in some areas they have turned it into a primary and are allowing people to vote and leave- because they can't fit them inside the area to caucus! Only people wishing to be delegates need to remain. People are now complaining THAT is a conspiracy. Jeeze, you'd think they knew this stuff is planned by volunteers and stay and be delegates so they can make improvements. People have a lot of unfounded expectations.

should just go home and get ready for the coronation so the Democrats can just get on with the business of losing their ass to Donald Trump. Forget about this whole Democracy thing. They better brace themselves, though, because they have NO IDEA what's about to happen to their party.

Pick Bernie or we'll burn the party down!

The idea that Clinton is the equivalent of Cruz or Trump is pure idiocy.

Vote for the Dem and then get to work in your local parties. "Cause let's face it, if either Bernie or Hillary are elected, their MAIN goal will be to prevent the nutty Congress from doing serious damage. Neither will truly be able to advance progressive causes while the Rethugs control the Congress.

That's the way it goes.

There are more contests and it'll be over, with an obvious winner, in a few months.