2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhere does Bernie get his big wins to close the gap?
Hillary is very likely to win Michigan by a big margin and Mississippi will be an enormous margin. The 15th looks to be fairly rough for Sanders as well as she will just run away with Florida and North Carolina by 25-30 point margins. Illinois also looks good for her. Missouri, we don't know, but I'm guessing it's close. Same goes for Ohio. I'll even give that to Sanders by a narrow margin for the sake of argument.
At that point, there just aren't enough big states left with plausible victory margins for Sanders to close to gap. California will likely be close. Even if he takes it by 10 points, which is doubtful, he only slightly narrows the gap. Pennsylvania is an especially unlikely state for him to win with its large African American vote and closed primary. Once again, even if he does win it narrowly, so what? Same thing with New York, and I don't think he'll win there either. A respectable showing, yes, but not a win.
New Jersey has a fairly large African American vote, as do Maryland and Delaware. Those are very likely Hillary states and by a not inconsiderable margin, either.
Sure, there are a bunch of plains states with no delegates. He can rack those up by 20 point margins and still not make a dent.
The one region I can point to where he gets a good-sized delegate haul by good margins is in Washington and Oregon, but I just don't see how that's enough to offset the rest.
Add to that the fact that after we're past the 15th, there will be a push to consolidate the vote around Hillary and look toward the general. This isn't my favorite political phenomenon, but it is a real thing.
Congrats in advance on the Maine caucus. I assume he'll win by 20 points there, but it won't do him much good in delegates.
DavidDvorkin
(19,479 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)He has to burst her inevitability bubble and then the political landscape will change.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)No signs that the Revolution has begun. Where is it?
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bernie will have won 8 states by tonight.
I believe that it is the tale of Hillary's inevitability that is wearing thin.
She is running out of time to close this out.
brooklynite
(94,597 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)brooklynite
(94,597 posts)...besides "anything can happen"
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bernie has closed the gap in other primaries.
brooklynite
(94,597 posts)RCP average for Michigan in Clinton + 20
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)and a town hall. and most importantly....the tell....Hillary reversed course on her participation in the town hall.
Team Hillary didn't like the trend in the internal polling.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)And he will move into the next round of contests with renewed momentum.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)cleopotrick
(79 posts)It will be the smug, condescending, insufferable DU postings of yourself, bknite, LexVegas and several others which stay my hand in favor of no-one.
Thank you for doing such a bang-up job of marginalizing and alienating my (and many others') opinions and concerns.
Swing State Voter, Signing Out..
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)I will vote for Bernie if he is the nominee. I won't even hesitate or hold my nose. I don't want this country to be dominated by a right wing, fascist Supreme Court over the next, at least, two decades. I cannot imagine how a real Democrat would not vote for the Democrat in a presidential election, rather than giving his/her vote to the Repubs by sitting out the election.
brooklynite
(94,597 posts)I've never criticized Bernie or his policies. All I've done is question his electability, and I've done so as factually as possible. Sorry if the truth hurts.
But I get you'll teach ME a lesson on Election Day, huh?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... on an internet political forum are not to be taken seriously, at least for me they aren't. Fortunately, the great majority of voting-age individuals have a much more mature attitude about what their vote means, and aren't inclined to use it as an empty gesture of vengeance toward some unknown person (who's unlikely to care one way or the other).
Interesting to see how people who *appear* to "care" so much about the value of their vote are so willing to throw it away as if it had no value at all. I guess that's why I don't take them seriously. They're either not serious about their threat, or they weren't serious about their vote to begin with.
You'll do as you wish. It doesn't matter to me. If you refused to vote for the nominee, then that was your choice beforehand. Using me (or the other named individuals) as your "excuse" is completely meaningless.
Go, Hillary! We love you!
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)...if Bernie could just barely lose nearby Nevada with its Republican governor & one Republican senator, he may well have a shot in notably more liberal California.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Zynx
(21,328 posts)I just don't think it gets the job done.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)And I think it's cute how you call it a "discussion."
brooklynite
(94,597 posts)...doesn't have any relation to electoral success in a State as large and diverse as California.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)And if he truly manages to pull off a stunning upset over the next couple of months, I will humbly admit my inability to predict the future.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I can still see a longshot that involves tying in MI and taking Ohio and PA. But that shot keeps getting longer daily. (But, hey, I'm still Team O'Malley at heart, so obviously longshots don't deter me.)
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)tritsofme
(17,379 posts)Of which, we will assuredly be subjected to plenty.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)The shooting? Meh! Won't bother me at all ...
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)I'm not naive, the question is whether Hillary will drop Bernie's message like a bad habit. I think she will, hopefully she proves me wrong.
randome
(34,845 posts)So I hope you're wrong, too.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Triana
(22,666 posts)Expect a right wing centrist at best.
Nothing will change. Many would say that's a good thing. However, a lot of systemic change is required. And damn soon. But it won't happen.
Those systemic issues were in place when Clinton and Obama were elected. They're still there only now even more entrenched. This isn't about dissing Obama or BC. It's about returning the US gov't once again into a body that works for WE THE PEOPLE - the masses - NOT just the big corprats, Wall St. and the 1%.
But it's not going to happen. We will continue to have a gov't that doesn't work for or even HEAR 99% of us. We're not even visible to them. Money buys ears and eyes in Washington and none of us have enough to give them to get them to see or listen.
We're done.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Nothing will.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)elect a true progressive, it's so obvious now that corporatism has been destructive for most Americans.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)In Congress. Your Right Wing centrist meme is just the same old smear. It's a pant load. She's not liberal enough for the Purity Party but she will be for the US electorate
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Stick it to the man.
That is all he needs to do.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)... is if it is stolen from him.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)kstewart33
(6,551 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)you need green bouncies for posts like that.
Sid
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)... portraying Hillary in an orange jumpsuit. DUers are finding it difficult to detect sarcasm and ridicule unless it is explicitly labeled.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)The rest of us don't need to vote. We should just all fold up our tents and go home. Get ready for the coronation. Resistance is futile. I know! That could be Hill's campaign theme!
Zynx
(21,328 posts)He isn't and he won't.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)I don't really care if we lose. We lose bigger when we don't show up for the fight.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)There is no chance of that. If he stays in after Mar 15th that tells me his real end goal is to tear down the Democratic Party as much as possible.
My theory is that he was never really in it to win it. If he was he wouldn't have sealed his fate with AA voters by dissing the crap out of Obama. And he would have had some sort of plan to elect down ticket Dems he would need for his "revolution" - instead he smears the whole party.
I think he's bitter that the Democrats in congress have not supported his socialist legislation over the years, and this is simply his parting shot. It's unfortunate, IMO, that he is using his true believers to do this. They don't deserve that.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)AND PRINCE CONSORT BILL !!
Metric System
(6,048 posts)nomination by working hard for it. It's funny, I never see this kind of language used for all the men who have run for President.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Meanwhile the family royal Bush has retired from public service.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Hillary will win the big ones such as Michigan, Illinois, Florida, Ohio, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. California will likely be close so that doesn't help him. He will likely win Oregon and Washington state.. but too little too late.
I think Sanders campaign know this and are now in survival mode.. win a few states here and there and pick up enough delegates to have some influence at the convention.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Persondem
(1,936 posts)highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)No one was going to defeat her this time around. She took her lumps in 2008 and did all the right things politically, starting with nominating Barack Obama by acclimation in Denver, which has not been forgotten. Bernie has probably done as well as any challenger could have, but you don't get to parachute into the party a year before this presidential election after spending seven years making up your mind in public whether or not Obama has been a good President and beat an established star who has paid her dues like Hillary.
Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)fact. HRC is well known everywhere, Bernie Sanders is not. Hillary has no new voters to attract BECAUSE she is so well known. Bernie has gone from complete obscurity to being about 200 delegates behind. He has nowhere to go but up. The more people get to know him the more likely he can win. He is attracting new voters, independents and Hillary has maxed out her support.
renate
(13,776 posts)His status as a relative unknown has always been presented as a bug in the program, but as you point out, it's actually a feature.
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)but I feel fairly positive that he will take Alaska on the 26th.