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Zynx

(21,328 posts)
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:09 AM Mar 2016

Where does Bernie get his big wins to close the gap?

Hillary is very likely to win Michigan by a big margin and Mississippi will be an enormous margin. The 15th looks to be fairly rough for Sanders as well as she will just run away with Florida and North Carolina by 25-30 point margins. Illinois also looks good for her. Missouri, we don't know, but I'm guessing it's close. Same goes for Ohio. I'll even give that to Sanders by a narrow margin for the sake of argument.

At that point, there just aren't enough big states left with plausible victory margins for Sanders to close to gap. California will likely be close. Even if he takes it by 10 points, which is doubtful, he only slightly narrows the gap. Pennsylvania is an especially unlikely state for him to win with its large African American vote and closed primary. Once again, even if he does win it narrowly, so what? Same thing with New York, and I don't think he'll win there either. A respectable showing, yes, but not a win.

New Jersey has a fairly large African American vote, as do Maryland and Delaware. Those are very likely Hillary states and by a not inconsiderable margin, either.

Sure, there are a bunch of plains states with no delegates. He can rack those up by 20 point margins and still not make a dent.

The one region I can point to where he gets a good-sized delegate haul by good margins is in Washington and Oregon, but I just don't see how that's enough to offset the rest.

Add to that the fact that after we're past the 15th, there will be a push to consolidate the vote around Hillary and look toward the general. This isn't my favorite political phenomenon, but it is a real thing.

Congrats in advance on the Maine caucus. I assume he'll win by 20 points there, but it won't do him much good in delegates.

65 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Where does Bernie get his big wins to close the gap? (Original Post) Zynx Mar 2016 OP
Revolution, man. DavidDvorkin Mar 2016 #1
All Bernie has to do is build momentum and take the lead in national polls virtualobserver Mar 2016 #2
Getting too late for newfound momentum. kstewart33 Mar 2016 #13
This isn't the Quaker Oats instant revolution virtualobserver Mar 2016 #26
Get back to us on Tuesday brooklynite Mar 2016 #31
You had better hope and pray that she wins Tuesday......or your narrative collapses virtualobserver Mar 2016 #41
Name a data point that suggests she won't... brooklynite Mar 2016 #46
Bernie has been closing the gap in some polls virtualobserver Mar 2016 #47
Not from what I'm seeing brooklynite Mar 2016 #48
I like the trend in the RCP data. Plus, we have a debate.... virtualobserver Mar 2016 #49
gettin' back to ya'...a 99% from 538 won't carry as much weight going forward. virtualobserver Mar 2016 #61
What are you talking about??? Bernie just outperformed the polls by 15 points!! reformist2 Mar 2016 #64
Time to close ranks. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #3
Should the time come when I am choosing between Hillary, Trump, and Abstention... cleopotrick Mar 2016 #22
By contrast, and in spite of the vicious attacks on Hillary supporters, MoonRiver Mar 2016 #28
I didn't know you cared... brooklynite Mar 2016 #32
People who vote (or don't-vote) because they were "offended" by an anonymous poster ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #50
Possibly California is one... Herman4747 Mar 2016 #4
And Oregon, and Washington and Alaska . . . Le Taz Hot Mar 2016 #20
I gave him those in my discussion. Zynx Mar 2016 #33
I didn't get past the first half of your first sentence. Le Taz Hot Mar 2016 #39
Campaign success in a Caucus state like Nevada... brooklynite Mar 2016 #34
As I said, I think he can "win" it, but by the margin to close the delegate gap? Doubtful. Zynx Mar 2016 #35
Right about...there. randome Mar 2016 #5
The Midwest is the only realistic place, but he's trailing in MI Recursion Mar 2016 #6
Aim high. randome Mar 2016 #8
don't bother us with details!! wyldwolf Mar 2016 #7
He doesn't. This race is all over but the shouting. tritsofme Mar 2016 #9
The bitterness of their attacks will make Hillary's victory all the more SWEET. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #10
I'm a Bernie supporter who knows Hillary is going to be the nominee. JRLeft Mar 2016 #15
I don't see how it can do anything but help her even more to lean populist at this point. randome Mar 2016 #23
It's not just campaigning progressive, but governing that way. JRLeft Mar 2016 #24
She will. If not after she has delegates tied up then after she's elected. Triana Mar 2016 #25
We're headed for another crash. If that doesn't force her to be progressive nothing will. JRLeft Mar 2016 #27
My guess? Triana Mar 2016 #29
I'm glad I'm doing great financially. I am hoping for others to JRLeft Mar 2016 #30
Hillary was one of the most liberal Senators redstateblues Mar 2016 #55
He must speak truth to power. Buck the establishment Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #11
That's nice. But where does Bernie get his big wins to close the gap? wyldwolf Mar 2016 #12
The election is his. The only way he can lose ... Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #17
... is not get enough delegates and votes - which is happening right now wyldwolf Mar 2016 #18
I sense a certain sarcasm..... NT Adrahil Mar 2016 #14
He's been sticking it to the man for months. Result: nada.nt kstewart33 Mar 2016 #16
Hehe... SidDithers Mar 2016 #38
I wish you'd have been on the jury that hid my post... Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #40
You're right. Le Taz Hot Mar 2016 #19
We all need to vote. I'm just sick of the Bernie people spreading the fiction that he's winning. Zynx Mar 2016 #37
Feel silly now? Nt Logical Mar 2016 #63
It makes no difference for what we have to do. Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #21
The delegates aren't there for him...nt SidDithers Mar 2016 #36
Bernie isn't going to win MaggieD Mar 2016 #42
POC WILL DELIVER US THE QUEEN WE DESERVE !! ALL HAIL MIGHTY QUEEN HILLARY Hiraeth Mar 2016 #43
Queen? This isn't a coronation, to use the word of Sanders supporters. She's earning the Metric System Mar 2016 #54
PRINCE CONSORT BILL CAMPAIGNS FOR HIS QUEEN - Hiraeth Mar 2016 #56
Wow. Ugly shit from Team Sanders. nt Codeine Mar 2016 #58
Just fighting fire with fire. n/t Hiraeth Mar 2016 #60
There are not enough "Bernie states" left to close the gap. DCBob Mar 2016 #44
You are trying too hard. Scared? nt thereismore Mar 2016 #45
A very realistic outlook. K & R nt Persondem Mar 2016 #51
CALIFORNIA, for one thing. highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #52
He doesn't BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #53
A lot of people are missing this important Land of Enchantment Mar 2016 #57
that's a good point and I don't think I've ever heard it discussed that way renate Mar 2016 #65
It may not be a big win, Blue_In_AK Mar 2016 #59
Michigan!!!! Wooo Hooo!! pat_k Mar 2016 #62
 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
2. All Bernie has to do is build momentum and take the lead in national polls
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:16 AM
Mar 2016

He has to burst her inevitability bubble and then the political landscape will change.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
26. This isn't the Quaker Oats instant revolution
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:41 PM
Mar 2016

Bernie will have won 8 states by tonight.

I believe that it is the tale of Hillary's inevitability that is wearing thin.

She is running out of time to close this out.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
49. I like the trend in the RCP data. Plus, we have a debate....
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 03:17 PM
Mar 2016

and a town hall. and most importantly....the tell....Hillary reversed course on her participation in the town hall.

Team Hillary didn't like the trend in the internal polling.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
64. What are you talking about??? Bernie just outperformed the polls by 15 points!!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:18 AM
Mar 2016

And he will move into the next round of contests with renewed momentum.
 

cleopotrick

(79 posts)
22. Should the time come when I am choosing between Hillary, Trump, and Abstention...
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:19 PM
Mar 2016

It will be the smug, condescending, insufferable DU postings of yourself, bknite, LexVegas and several others which stay my hand in favor of no-one.

Thank you for doing such a bang-up job of marginalizing and alienating my (and many others') opinions and concerns.

Swing State Voter, Signing Out..

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
28. By contrast, and in spite of the vicious attacks on Hillary supporters,
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:50 PM
Mar 2016

I will vote for Bernie if he is the nominee. I won't even hesitate or hold my nose. I don't want this country to be dominated by a right wing, fascist Supreme Court over the next, at least, two decades. I cannot imagine how a real Democrat would not vote for the Democrat in a presidential election, rather than giving his/her vote to the Repubs by sitting out the election.

brooklynite

(94,597 posts)
32. I didn't know you cared...
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:19 PM
Mar 2016
It will be the smug, condescending, insufferable DU postings of yourself, bknite


I've never criticized Bernie or his policies. All I've done is question his electability, and I've done so as factually as possible. Sorry if the truth hurts.

But I get you'll teach ME a lesson on Election Day, huh?

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
50. People who vote (or don't-vote) because they were "offended" by an anonymous poster ...
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 03:19 PM
Mar 2016

... on an internet political forum are not to be taken seriously, at least for me they aren't. Fortunately, the great majority of voting-age individuals have a much more mature attitude about what their vote means, and aren't inclined to use it as an empty gesture of vengeance toward some unknown person (who's unlikely to care one way or the other).

Interesting to see how people who *appear* to "care" so much about the value of their vote are so willing to throw it away as if it had no value at all. I guess that's why I don't take them seriously. They're either not serious about their threat, or they weren't serious about their vote to begin with.

You'll do as you wish. It doesn't matter to me. If you refused to vote for the nominee, then that was your choice beforehand. Using me (or the other named individuals) as your "excuse" is completely meaningless.



Go, Hillary! We love you!


 

Herman4747

(1,825 posts)
4. Possibly California is one...
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:17 AM
Mar 2016

...if Bernie could just barely lose nearby Nevada with its Republican governor & one Republican senator, he may well have a shot in notably more liberal California.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
39. I didn't get past the first half of your first sentence.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:25 PM
Mar 2016

And I think it's cute how you call it a "discussion."

brooklynite

(94,597 posts)
34. Campaign success in a Caucus state like Nevada...
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:21 PM
Mar 2016

...doesn't have any relation to electoral success in a State as large and diverse as California.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
5. Right about...there.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:17 AM
Mar 2016


And if he truly manages to pull off a stunning upset over the next couple of months, I will humbly admit my inability to predict the future.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)
[/center][/font][hr]

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
6. The Midwest is the only realistic place, but he's trailing in MI
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:29 AM
Mar 2016

I can still see a longshot that involves tying in MI and taking Ohio and PA. But that shot keeps getting longer daily. (But, hey, I'm still Team O'Malley at heart, so obviously longshots don't deter me.)

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
8. Aim high.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:33 AM
Mar 2016

[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)
[/center][/font][hr]

tritsofme

(17,379 posts)
9. He doesn't. This race is all over but the shouting.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:35 AM
Mar 2016

Of which, we will assuredly be subjected to plenty.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
10. The bitterness of their attacks will make Hillary's victory all the more SWEET.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 11:59 AM
Mar 2016

The shooting? Meh! Won't bother me at all ...

 

JRLeft

(7,010 posts)
15. I'm a Bernie supporter who knows Hillary is going to be the nominee.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:03 PM
Mar 2016

I'm not naive, the question is whether Hillary will drop Bernie's message like a bad habit. I think she will, hopefully she proves me wrong.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
23. I don't see how it can do anything but help her even more to lean populist at this point.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:20 PM
Mar 2016

So I hope you're wrong, too.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)
[/center][/font][hr]

 

Triana

(22,666 posts)
25. She will. If not after she has delegates tied up then after she's elected.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:39 PM
Mar 2016

Expect a right wing centrist at best.

Nothing will change. Many would say that's a good thing. However, a lot of systemic change is required. And damn soon. But it won't happen.

Those systemic issues were in place when Clinton and Obama were elected. They're still there only now even more entrenched. This isn't about dissing Obama or BC. It's about returning the US gov't once again into a body that works for WE THE PEOPLE - the masses - NOT just the big corprats, Wall St. and the 1%.

But it's not going to happen. We will continue to have a gov't that doesn't work for or even HEAR 99% of us. We're not even visible to them. Money buys ears and eyes in Washington and none of us have enough to give them to get them to see or listen.

We're done.

 

JRLeft

(7,010 posts)
30. I'm glad I'm doing great financially. I am hoping for others to
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:13 PM
Mar 2016

elect a true progressive, it's so obvious now that corporatism has been destructive for most Americans.

redstateblues

(10,565 posts)
55. Hillary was one of the most liberal Senators
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 04:32 PM
Mar 2016

In Congress. Your Right Wing centrist meme is just the same old smear. It's a pant load. She's not liberal enough for the Purity Party but she will be for the US electorate

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
11. He must speak truth to power. Buck the establishment
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:00 PM
Mar 2016

Stick it to the man.

That is all he needs to do.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
40. I wish you'd have been on the jury that hid my post...
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:27 PM
Mar 2016

... portraying Hillary in an orange jumpsuit. DUers are finding it difficult to detect sarcasm and ridicule unless it is explicitly labeled.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
19. You're right.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:15 PM
Mar 2016

The rest of us don't need to vote. We should just all fold up our tents and go home. Get ready for the coronation. Resistance is futile. I know! That could be Hill's campaign theme!

Zynx

(21,328 posts)
37. We all need to vote. I'm just sick of the Bernie people spreading the fiction that he's winning.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:22 PM
Mar 2016

He isn't and he won't.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
21. It makes no difference for what we have to do.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 12:18 PM
Mar 2016

I don't really care if we lose. We lose bigger when we don't show up for the fight.

 

MaggieD

(7,393 posts)
42. Bernie isn't going to win
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:35 PM
Mar 2016

There is no chance of that. If he stays in after Mar 15th that tells me his real end goal is to tear down the Democratic Party as much as possible.

My theory is that he was never really in it to win it. If he was he wouldn't have sealed his fate with AA voters by dissing the crap out of Obama. And he would have had some sort of plan to elect down ticket Dems he would need for his "revolution" - instead he smears the whole party.

I think he's bitter that the Democrats in congress have not supported his socialist legislation over the years, and this is simply his parting shot. It's unfortunate, IMO, that he is using his true believers to do this. They don't deserve that.

Hiraeth

(4,805 posts)
43. POC WILL DELIVER US THE QUEEN WE DESERVE !! ALL HAIL MIGHTY QUEEN HILLARY
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:38 PM
Mar 2016

AND PRINCE CONSORT BILL !!

Metric System

(6,048 posts)
54. Queen? This isn't a coronation, to use the word of Sanders supporters. She's earning the
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 03:41 PM
Mar 2016

nomination by working hard for it. It's funny, I never see this kind of language used for all the men who have run for President.

Hiraeth

(4,805 posts)
56. PRINCE CONSORT BILL CAMPAIGNS FOR HIS QUEEN -
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:19 PM
Mar 2016

Meanwhile the family royal Bush has retired from public service.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
44. There are not enough "Bernie states" left to close the gap.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 01:47 PM
Mar 2016

Hillary will win the big ones such as Michigan, Illinois, Florida, Ohio, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. California will likely be close so that doesn't help him. He will likely win Oregon and Washington state.. but too little too late.

I think Sanders campaign know this and are now in survival mode.. win a few states here and there and pick up enough delegates to have some influence at the convention.

BeyondGeography

(39,374 posts)
53. He doesn't
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 03:41 PM
Mar 2016

No one was going to defeat her this time around. She took her lumps in 2008 and did all the right things politically, starting with nominating Barack Obama by acclimation in Denver, which has not been forgotten. Bernie has probably done as well as any challenger could have, but you don't get to parachute into the party a year before this presidential election after spending seven years making up your mind in public whether or not Obama has been a good President and beat an established star who has paid her dues like Hillary.

Land of Enchantment

(1,217 posts)
57. A lot of people are missing this important
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:47 PM
Mar 2016

fact. HRC is well known everywhere, Bernie Sanders is not. Hillary has no new voters to attract BECAUSE she is so well known. Bernie has gone from complete obscurity to being about 200 delegates behind. He has nowhere to go but up. The more people get to know him the more likely he can win. He is attracting new voters, independents and Hillary has maxed out her support.

renate

(13,776 posts)
65. that's a good point and I don't think I've ever heard it discussed that way
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:18 AM
Mar 2016

His status as a relative unknown has always been presented as a bug in the program, but as you point out, it's actually a feature.

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