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courseofhistory

(801 posts)
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 06:58 PM Oct 2012

Interesting Combinations to Obama & Romney Winning & Probabilities Gives Obama 83%

About the Road Map to 270

This calculator starts with your interactive map and, for each party, calculates the number of paths to 270 Electoral Votes, the number needed to win the election. It is only available with 12 or fewer states (and/or Washington, DC) unselected as the number of combinations gets very large beyond that point.

Note that certain decisions were made to keep the number of results manageable. The calculator assumes that the remaining states are decided, in order, from most to fewest Electoral Votes. Furthermore, only the combinations needed to cross the 270 winning threshold are shown. For example, let's assume states A, B, & C remain unselected and the candidate can reach 270 by winning A and B. In this case, it is also true that they will add on to their total by winning state C. Since winning state C doesn't affect the outcome one way or the other, only A & B is shown as a combination, not A, B & C.

Obama Combinations

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map/combinations.php?party=Democratic&num_rem=33&st_remain=FL,OH,NC,VA,WI,CO,IA,NV,NH&me=&ne=

Romney combinations

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map/combinations.php?party=Republican&num_rem=79&st_remain=FL,OH,NC,VA,WI,CO,IA,NV,NH&me=&ne=

Tie combinations

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map/ties.php?party=dem&num_rem=32&st_remain=FL,OH,NC,VA,WI,CO,IA,NV,NH&me=&ne=

Probabilities of winning Electoral college


Democrats
83%

Republicans
16%

Neither (Tie)

1%

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Interesting Combinations to Obama & Romney Winning & Probabilities Gives Obama 83% (Original Post) courseofhistory Oct 2012 OP
Great read! angrychair Oct 2012 #1

angrychair

(8,699 posts)
1. Great read!
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:04 PM
Oct 2012

I went through all of Rmoney's combos and find every one of them unlikely. If you except that, at the least, states like NH, NV, IA, WI or OH are truly out of reach for him than there is no winning combo in play as all of them require at least one or more to get to 270+. If you are willing to keep VA or CO in play than it is even more unlikely. If you factor AZ or FL as an outside possibility still than there is no path to 270+ for Rmoney.

Facts matter. The 47% matter. You matter. Vote.

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