2016 Postmortem

TroyD

(4,551 posts) Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:22 PM Oct 2012

Ipsos/Reuters poll: Obama 46%, Romney 45%. (Romney was up 3% on Thursday)

Sun Oct 14, 2012 6:37pm EDT

A Reuters/Ipsos daily online tracking poll on Sunday showed Obama leading Romney by 1 percentage point, 46 to 45, down from a 3-point Romney lead last Thursday - a possible sign that the Republican's surge after the first debate could be running out of steam.

But underlying trends in Reuters/Ipsos data are worrying for Obama. They show voters are evaluating Romney more favorably on key issues that could influence how they vote.

The Reuters/Ipsos online data showed that Obama is now behind on who has the better plan for the federal deficit. Obama was ahead by 1 point two weeks ago; Romney now has a significant lead on that issue, 43.4 percent to 29.9.

The former Massachusetts governor has overtaken Obama on who has the best plan for the economy, and now leads on that question by 43 percent to 37.6. Answers to the issues questions have a credibility interval - a way of measuring the accuracy of polls - of around 2.5 percent for each number and are based on samples of 1,700 respondents.

Perhaps because of Republicans' questions over how the Obama administration has handled the Benghazi attack, Romney has even crept up on issues long seen as safe territory for Obama, such as the war on terrorism and dealing with Iran.

The president's lead on Iran has shrunk from nine points two weeks ago to less than one and from 11 points to three on the war against terrorism.

On domestic economic issues, the Reuters/Ipsos data showed that Romney - a former private equity executive who has been battered for months by pro-Obama ads casting the Republican as an insensitive job-killer - has carved into Obama's lead on issues such as taxes and Social Security policy. The president now leads on taxes by 41.5 percent to 39.1, and by 40.9 percent to 37 on Social Security.

Polls also show Romney gaining ground in key swing states that could decide the election, although Obama has retained a slight lead in the vital battleground state of Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/14/us-usa-campaign-debate-idUSBRE89D0IW20121014

14 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Ipsos/Reuters poll: Obama 46%, Romney 45%. (Romney was up 3% on Thursday) (Original Post) TroyD Oct 2012 OP

Moving in the right direction. 2nd Debate will help Obama rhombus Oct 2012 #1

BO needs to work his magic Cosmocat Oct 2012 #2

Ok. We need to take back control of those topics. Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #3

Third debate is strictly on foreign policy rhombus Oct 2012 #5

This one may not effect today's 538 update Adenoid_Hynkel Oct 2012 #4

So now it is two tracking polls with Obama ahead and two with him behind. Jennicut Oct 2012 #6

And not to mention that there are still Republicans who won't be voting for their party. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #8

I like the trend. mzmolly Oct 2012 #7

why imgbitepolitic Oct 2012 #9

They pick & choose which polls to post TroyD Oct 2012 #11

romney will keep sinking amborin Oct 2012 #10

Looking for every positive sign. Thanks for posting! SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #12

Romney bump starting to fade. jimdeed Oct 2012 #13

A lot depends on the questions morrissey fan Oct 2012 #14

rhombus

(696 posts)

1. Moving in the right direction. 2nd Debate will help Obama

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:26 PM

Oct 2012

Let's go.

Cosmocat

(14,564 posts)

2. BO needs to work his magic

Reply to rhombus (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:31 PM

Oct 2012

on Tuesday, flat out.

Anything close to a draw, even, and the media will call it for Romney.

Not sure how the townhall format will play.

Might keep distance between them and allow Romney to bullshit his way through it.

And, no friend to democrats with Crowley as moderator.

Lone_Star_Dem

(28,158 posts)

3. Ok. We need to take back control of those topics.

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:31 PM

Oct 2012

I know they're covered in the third debate, but we need to regain control before then.

All in all, this is good news. It's good to know where we need to be focusing, and and a gain is a gain.

rhombus

(696 posts)

5. Third debate is strictly on foreign policy

Reply to Lone_Star_Dem (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:37 PM

Oct 2012

So Obama has to close the domestic issues gap on Tues.

Adenoid_Hynkel

(14,093 posts)

4. This one may not effect today's 538 update

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:33 PM

Oct 2012

Nate just posted on Twitter:

Inevitable things: 1. death 2. taxes 3. Reuters/Ipsos poll publishing right as you're running the 538 forecast model.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

6. So now it is two tracking polls with Obama ahead and two with him behind.

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:42 PM

Oct 2012

But he is ahead in RV in the Gallup poll, which is extremely important. In 2008, McCain was behind in both LV and RV at this point, impossible ground to make up. And the LV model may get tighter in another week. Rasmussen is Rasmussen but Obama has stayed within 1 to 2 points on there, which for a right leaning robo poll is very good.

Obama needs to kick ass in the town hall debate but I doubt the media will allow a win. It will most likely be a draw but better then what we have had before. It will help with Dem enthusiasm as there are very little undecideds left.

Romney is hurt by still being unlikable. He cannot break away from Obama in the polling.

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)

8. And not to mention that there are still Republicans who won't be voting for their party.

Reply to Jennicut (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:22 PM

Oct 2012

There's even a still small, bur growing number of Republicans who are even joining the Obama camp. We CANNOT let the MSM forget that.

mzmolly

(50,992 posts)

7. I like the trend.

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:20 PM

Oct 2012

imgbitepolitic

(179 posts)

9. why

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:31 PM

Oct 2012

Doesnt rcp post ipsos poll?

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

11. They pick & choose which polls to post

Reply to imgbitepolitic (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:33 PM

Oct 2012

Particularly now when they are taking advantage of Obama's debate stumble to promote pro-Romney polls.

amborin

(16,631 posts)

10. romney will keep sinking

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:33 PM

Oct 2012

Re: debate #2, Ezra Klein thinks visionary grand plans are needed:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/14/when-did-obama-lose-the-vision-thing/

SleeplessinSoCal

(9,120 posts)

12. Looking for every positive sign. Thanks for posting!

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:42 PM

Oct 2012

I'm still furious that we stumbled, but hope springs!

jimdeed

(14 posts)

13. Romney bump starting to fade.

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:36 PM

Oct 2012

Romney bump has tarted to fade and Joe Bidens efforts have paid off.

Obama needs to make this next debate count.

morrissey fan

(76 posts)

14. A lot depends on the questions

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:40 PM

Oct 2012

After lurking this board for weeks, I'm aboard. One thing I HATED about the first debate were the questions! Why was abortion, gay rights, etc not discussed?

Reply to this discussion