Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:32 PM Oct 2012

FIU Hispanic FL voter poll: Obama 51- Romney 44

* note that Florida has many Cuban Americans who tend to vote Republican more than in other states


Mitt Romney is closing the gap on President Barack Obama among likely Hispanic Florida voters, a majority of whom say they’re not better off than four years ago, according to a new Florida International University/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll.

Obama is ahead of Romney 51-44 percent among Hispanics, a relatively narrow lead that could spell trouble for a Democratic campaign that’s counting on minority support as non-Hispanic white voters flock to the Republican ticket in droves.

In the rest of the country, however, it’s a different story for Obama when it comes to likely Hispanic voters.

The president wallops Romney 66-31 percent overall across the U.S., according to the poll’s national survey of 1,000 likely Hispanic voters. It was taken Oct. 10-11 along with the 720-voter poll in Florida.

more at link

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/fiu-hispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html#storylink=cpy

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
FIU Hispanic FL voter poll: Obama 51- Romney 44 (Original Post) flamingdem Oct 2012 OP
in Florida hispanic = cubans for the most part, si? republican cubans at that nt msongs Oct 2012 #1
'a majority of whom say they’re not better off than four years ago' TroyD Oct 2012 #2
Anti-Castro looniland where they follow their congressional extreme right wing leaders flamingdem Oct 2012 #6
Well Robbins Oct 2012 #3
The Cuban Adjustment Act would not be impacted flamingdem Oct 2012 #8
On the positive side TroyD Oct 2012 #4
Very true. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #5
Take out Cuban voters, and Obama... ProSense Oct 2012 #7
Thanks for that info flamingdem Oct 2012 #9
Possibly, and ProSense Oct 2012 #10
Good to hear that. Did you see all the new PPP polling on FL? flamingdem Oct 2012 #11
Yeah, overall not that bad given ProSense Oct 2012 #12
I'm agreeing with your assessment. LiberalFighter Oct 2012 #15
kick ailsagirl Oct 2012 #13
Older Cubans Are Very Right Wing. Younger Ones Not So Much. DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #14
In Miami flamingdem Oct 2012 #16
When I Was In College In The Early 80s I Was The Only Anglo In A All Cuban Study Group DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #17

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
2. 'a majority of whom say they’re not better off than four years ago'
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:49 PM
Oct 2012

What country are they living in?

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
6. Anti-Castro looniland where they follow their congressional extreme right wing leaders
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:56 PM
Oct 2012

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the brothers Diaz-Balart - the soon to be indicted Rep. David Rivera and the soon to lose Connie Mack who supports their efforts

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
3. Well
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:51 PM
Oct 2012

I guess a lot of hispanics In florida don't mind being told to self deport.Don't mind Romney's support for harsh Immigration laws
and don't mind Romney wanting to cut all social programs(Including Medicaid and other benefets poor hispanics may get) and make It harder for hsipancis to get In to collage.

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
8. The Cuban Adjustment Act would not be impacted
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:58 PM
Oct 2012

That gives them thousands if they come from Cuba for settlement and welfare

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
4. On the positive side
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:51 PM
Oct 2012

This shows that the Tampa Bay Times poll the other day showing Romney ahead of Obama by 7 points in FL was nonsense, as suspected.

Tampa Bay Times has been cooking a lot of ridiculous polls lately. They even published a poll showing a close race between Nelson and Mack even though Nelson is way ahead in all the other polls.

Btw, the 66-33 national Hispanic spread in this poll is also somewhat smaller than that found by Latino Decisions.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
5. Very true.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:55 PM
Oct 2012

And who knows? Enough of our Latino fellow citizens voting might even be able to secure Nevada and tip the scales for us in AZ!

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
7. Take out Cuban voters, and Obama...
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:57 PM
Oct 2012
Take out Cuban voters, and Obama wins Florida Hispanics 64 percent to Romney’s 33 percent, according to the poll, which has a 3.6 percent error margin.


Seems like someone trying to write a narrative to fit the recent Mason-Dixon poll.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1533763


Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
9. Thanks for that info
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:00 PM
Oct 2012

I bet that the poll concentrated on Miami which is where FIU is located. There are other hispanic groups outside of Miami in larger concentration

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
10. Possibly, and
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:26 PM
Oct 2012

as the 2008 piece at the link shows, they tried this rationalization (McCain leading because of the Cuban vote). It clearly didn't work out that way.

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
11. Good to hear that. Did you see all the new PPP polling on FL?
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:35 PM
Oct 2012
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html

PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls

Their twitter is very active - this is just the last hour below

here's a copy paste:
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls


We'll have North Carolina stuff for you between 9 and 10


13m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Last month Dems led generic Congressional ballot in Florida 47/43. Now it's tied at 44: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


13m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Rick Scott has a 37/46 approval, but only trails a generic Dem for reelection 45/43. Lot better than a year ago: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


14m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

The most important number in the Florida Senate race might be Connie Mack IV's favorability rating- 32/45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


15m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Bill Nelson's keys- taking 17% of the Republican vote, up with independents even as Obama trails with them: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


16m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

No coattails on Romney's bounce in Florida- Bill Nelson still leads the Senate race 45-37: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


17m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Obama up w/ women (51-47), voters under 65 (49-48) in FL. But Romney up more w/ men (52-44), seniors (52-45): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


19m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

The key to Romney's lead in Florida- he's gone from an 11 pt lead with whites to 17. Non-whites steady: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


19m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Obama's approval in Florida has dropped from 51/47 before the debate to now 48/50: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


20m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

The main shift in Florida has been with independents. Last month Obama led 51-40, now Romney up 51-43: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
Expand


21m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Our full FL poll, which finds Mitt Romney gaining 5 pts in the last 3 weeks to take a 49/48 lead, is now posted: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html


54m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

@fivethirtyeight 791 likely voters, October 12-14

55m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Florida voters think Biden won the debate 44-40. But they like Ryan (50/44 fav) better than him (45/50) anyway


1h PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Romney's net favorability in Florida is up 9 points over the last 3 weeks from -7 (44/51) to +2 (49/47)


1h PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Our new Florida poll finds a razor tight race- Mitt Romney leads 49-48, a 5 point improvement for him compared to 3 weeks ago

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
12. Yeah, overall not that bad given
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:41 PM
Oct 2012

the trend.

Obama lead expands to 4 points in Florida

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 50-46 margin in the state. That represents a 3 point improvement for Obama since PPP's last poll of the state, which was conducted the weekend after the Republican convention. It represents the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in Florida since early June.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_923.pdf


No Bounce for Romney in Florida

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_912.pdf


The President evidently got a convention bounce, but the race has always been close.

I think PPP like most pollsters are undersampling Hispanics.

LiberalFighter

(50,936 posts)
15. I'm agreeing with your assessment.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:45 PM
Oct 2012

I don't believe Miami Cubans have as a big of an impact against Democratic candidates as it use. The old guard are dying off.

And unless they live close to Miami any of the other hispanics are not of the same mind.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
14. Older Cubans Are Very Right Wing. Younger Ones Not So Much.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:41 PM
Oct 2012

In fact Obama carried the young vote among Cubans. When I lived in Fort Lauderdale in the Summer of 010 the dislike for Obama among some older Cubans was palpable. I was sitting in a whirlpool at at Ballys in Plantation, Florida and this older Cuban woman is comparing Obama to Castro. When she got out I remarked to the other Cuban who remained that if Obama was indeed Castro she would have got a government visit at her home.

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
16. In Miami
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:09 PM
Oct 2012

I hung out at Versailles Restaurant partly for the excellent Cafe Cubano but partially to see the right wing Cubanos in action. Also all the candidates do a round there.

This guy was there and so hopped up on coffee he needed a straight jacket!




The younger people who've arrived recently or were born in the USA are definitely leaning or strong Democrat. Now Joe Garcia will surely win against Rep. David Garcia who might be indicted soon for his election shenanigans. Garcia has many young followers and he's moderate about Cuba. He'll be the first Cuban American Democrat from Florida ever in Congress.


DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
17. When I Was In College In The Early 80s I Was The Only Anglo In A All Cuban Study Group
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:16 PM
Oct 2012

They were the nicest group of people I have ever been around and they were all left of center. And they all went on to do very well in life, becoming lawyers and such...

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»FIU Hispanic FL voter pol...