2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFIU Hispanic FL voter poll: Obama 51- Romney 44
* note that Florida has many Cuban Americans who tend to vote Republican more than in other states
Mitt Romney is closing the gap on President Barack Obama among likely Hispanic Florida voters, a majority of whom say theyre not better off than four years ago, according to a new Florida International University/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll.
Obama is ahead of Romney 51-44 percent among Hispanics, a relatively narrow lead that could spell trouble for a Democratic campaign thats counting on minority support as non-Hispanic white voters flock to the Republican ticket in droves.
In the rest of the country, however, its a different story for Obama when it comes to likely Hispanic voters.
The president wallops Romney 66-31 percent overall across the U.S., according to the polls national survey of 1,000 likely Hispanic voters. It was taken Oct. 10-11 along with the 720-voter poll in Florida.
more at link
Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/fiu-hispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html#storylink=cpy
msongs
(67,406 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)What country are they living in?
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the brothers Diaz-Balart - the soon to be indicted Rep. David Rivera and the soon to lose Connie Mack who supports their efforts
Robbins
(5,066 posts)I guess a lot of hispanics In florida don't mind being told to self deport.Don't mind Romney's support for harsh Immigration laws
and don't mind Romney wanting to cut all social programs(Including Medicaid and other benefets poor hispanics may get) and make It harder for hsipancis to get In to collage.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)That gives them thousands if they come from Cuba for settlement and welfare
TroyD
(4,551 posts)This shows that the Tampa Bay Times poll the other day showing Romney ahead of Obama by 7 points in FL was nonsense, as suspected.
Tampa Bay Times has been cooking a lot of ridiculous polls lately. They even published a poll showing a close race between Nelson and Mack even though Nelson is way ahead in all the other polls.
Btw, the 66-33 national Hispanic spread in this poll is also somewhat smaller than that found by Latino Decisions.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)And who knows? Enough of our Latino fellow citizens voting might even be able to secure Nevada and tip the scales for us in AZ!
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Seems like someone trying to write a narrative to fit the recent Mason-Dixon poll.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1533763
Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)I bet that the poll concentrated on Miami which is where FIU is located. There are other hispanic groups outside of Miami in larger concentration
ProSense
(116,464 posts)as the 2008 piece at the link shows, they tried this rationalization (McCain leading because of the Cuban vote). It clearly didn't work out that way.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Their twitter is very active - this is just the last hour below
here's a copy paste:
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
We'll have North Carolina stuff for you between 9 and 10
13m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Last month Dems led generic Congressional ballot in Florida 47/43. Now it's tied at 44: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
13m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Rick Scott has a 37/46 approval, but only trails a generic Dem for reelection 45/43. Lot better than a year ago: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
14m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
The most important number in the Florida Senate race might be Connie Mack IV's favorability rating- 32/45: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
15m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Bill Nelson's keys- taking 17% of the Republican vote, up with independents even as Obama trails with them: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
16m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
No coattails on Romney's bounce in Florida- Bill Nelson still leads the Senate race 45-37: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
17m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Obama up w/ women (51-47), voters under 65 (49-48) in FL. But Romney up more w/ men (52-44), seniors (52-45): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
19m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
The key to Romney's lead in Florida- he's gone from an 11 pt lead with whites to 17. Non-whites steady: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
19m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Obama's approval in Florida has dropped from 51/47 before the debate to now 48/50: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
20m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
The main shift in Florida has been with independents. Last month Obama led 51-40, now Romney up 51-43: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
Expand
21m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Our full FL poll, which finds Mitt Romney gaining 5 pts in the last 3 weeks to take a 49/48 lead, is now posted: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
54m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
@fivethirtyeight 791 likely voters, October 12-14
55m PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Florida voters think Biden won the debate 44-40. But they like Ryan (50/44 fav) better than him (45/50) anyway
1h PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Romney's net favorability in Florida is up 9 points over the last 3 weeks from -7 (44/51) to +2 (49/47)
1h PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Our new Florida poll finds a razor tight race- Mitt Romney leads 49-48, a 5 point improvement for him compared to 3 weeks ago
ProSense
(116,464 posts)the trend.
Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 50-46 margin in the state. That represents a 3 point improvement for Obama since PPP's last poll of the state, which was conducted the weekend after the Republican convention. It represents the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in Florida since early June.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_923.pdf
Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_912.pdf
The President evidently got a convention bounce, but the race has always been close.
I think PPP like most pollsters are undersampling Hispanics.
LiberalFighter
(50,936 posts)I don't believe Miami Cubans have as a big of an impact against Democratic candidates as it use. The old guard are dying off.
And unless they live close to Miami any of the other hispanics are not of the same mind.
ailsagirl
(22,897 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)In fact Obama carried the young vote among Cubans. When I lived in Fort Lauderdale in the Summer of 010 the dislike for Obama among some older Cubans was palpable. I was sitting in a whirlpool at at Ballys in Plantation, Florida and this older Cuban woman is comparing Obama to Castro. When she got out I remarked to the other Cuban who remained that if Obama was indeed Castro she would have got a government visit at her home.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)I hung out at Versailles Restaurant partly for the excellent Cafe Cubano but partially to see the right wing Cubanos in action. Also all the candidates do a round there.
This guy was there and so hopped up on coffee he needed a straight jacket!
The younger people who've arrived recently or were born in the USA are definitely leaning or strong Democrat. Now Joe Garcia will surely win against Rep. David Garcia who might be indicted soon for his election shenanigans. Garcia has many young followers and he's moderate about Cuba. He'll be the first Cuban American Democrat from Florida ever in Congress.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)They were the nicest group of people I have ever been around and they were all left of center. And they all went on to do very well in life, becoming lawyers and such...